RPG News - PC Sales on the Rebound

[Dhruin]

The NY Times has an article that claims PC games sales are on the rebound (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/23/technology/23gaming.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin). It uses the single example of one Bennett Kirschner buying Civ4 instead of a console game and then goes on to look at various NPD figures. As is often the case, it isn't clear if console hardware is included in some of the numbers and it also isn't clear if the NPD figures are using different criteria, but the main thrust is that World of Warcraft is selling a lot of copies and PC game sales are up:
Anita Frazier, an industry analyst for the NPD Group, a market research firm, noted that in the first two months of 2007, domestic retail sales of PC games reached $203 million, a 48 percent increase over the $136.8 million in the period a year earlier. She noted that these figures do not include revenue generated by PC game sales online, or online subscriptions to play PC games.
“Yes, it does look like a fluke, doesn’t it?” Ms. Frazier said. “Rest assured it’s not.”
She said the bulk of this surge in sales is rooted in the role-playing video game genre that, itself, grew 43 percent over the same period last year. “The robust performance we’re seeing in PC game sales can be tied to several key titles across several genres,” she said, “but we’d be remiss not to address the continued success of World of Warcraft.”
More information. (http://www.rpgwatch.com/show/newsbit?newsbit=4708)

[DarNoor]

Why don't they include online sales? That is how i make all my game purchases. I don't remember the last time i waled into a video game store.

[r3dshift]

Doesn't really matter anyway, as "PC gaming is dying".

Don't reply if you don't get the sarcasm.

[magerette]

“Gaming actually started on computers and has been evolving on the PC for a very long time”

well, yeah!

“Not everyone wants to lay down the money for a console and a big-screen television to make it work,” Mr. Arzt said. “The thing about the economics of the PC,” he added, is that “everybody needs a computer.”

As overwhelmingly obvious as these statements are, it is definitely nice to see them in print instead of merely seeing them posted on various boards by cynical and disillusioned pc gamers (not pointing any fingers or anything :p ):

[Yeesh]

You know I saw that and was thinking of the whole PC genre is dying "debate". I call it a "debate" because it's kind of like the "debate" over climate change or evolution.
Did you read the article? It's sheer genius. Do you know WHY the Manhattan lawyer (???) is buying a PC game and not a console game?

“But right now I don’t have the time or money to invest in a $400 console and $50 in a game.”

Oh right, ta da! That's why PC gaming is going to make a come-back: It's cheaper, and the games take less time to play. Well thank goodness we got to the bottom of that.

Head over to any hardware website (Tom's Hardware, Anandtech), and take a look at their MID-RANGED system buying guides. Decent PCs cost ~1K or more. Then look at reviews of the fastest processors and video cards. a "decent" video card costs ~$200-$300. The best ones cost more than an XBOX 360 all by themselves.

But somehow PC gaming is cheaper.

Less time? That doesn't even make sense. Even if you don't examine the 8 MILLION people playing WoW (which I can only assume the tenured readers here do not hold up as the epitome of fine PC gaming), you'd be hard pressed to find someone here who'd trumpet shortness as a virtue in PC gaming.

So what are you left with? Strong sales, and who knows how many are from the WoW expansion by itself. How many copies did that sell?

Look, PC gaming isn't DYING per se. It's just been eclipsed, and will probably continue to be eclipsed to a greater extent. I'm not thrilled about it. But it's OK, because SpiderWeb isn't going anywhere, and the limited (tiny) successes like Dominions III and oh I don't know whatever awesome independent game you like will keep drawing the occasional new player in. But realistically, there are enough of us old timers to just keep the little guys afloat indefinitely. We're in our 30s, our buying power grows and grows, and we're not going to kick the bucket for a long time. So PC gaming continues on with us, at least the good kind of PC gaming (not shooters and WoW and um whatever else the kids play that I don't like).

And all that's OK. You want to think PC gaming is still a market-shaping force when it comes to single-player games? I guess it depends on how you define your terms. Want to think there's a resurgence around the corner, as this article suggests? I wouldn't hold my breath, but anything's possible.

Me, I'm just glad I was able to take a subway ride into Manhattan and buy Dominions III at J+R Computer World. Because if I'd lived in most other places, I'd have had to order it online and wait for the shipping. And that's not going to change any time soon.

PS Civ IV on an old computer? It sure does chug. What werre they thinking with all the 3-D?

[Corwin]

An interesting post. Welcome to the boards!!

[doctor_kaz]

PC Gaming is still in very , very serious trouble. The only prosperous genres are MMORPG and RTS. Everything else is utter shit right now. Especially FPS. The state of the FPS on the PC is easily the worst it has ever been since the invention of the genre. The same can be said for single player RPG's. But the days of the PC MMORPG and RTS are also numbered. I guarantee you within a couple of years, someobdy will put a commercially successful MMO or RTS on the XBox 360, and within a couple of years after that, those genres will be dead too as developers jump ship to dumb their games down for the consoles. People say that this can never be done, but the reality is, any game can be shoehorned onto a console if the developers are willing to strip away enough content.

[txa1265]

There is a breadth to PC gaming that isn't seen on other platforms - you can play everything there!

However, the result is that things tend to sell much lower numbers! Look at the March NPD numbers (US sales, not counting online, digital distro, subscriptions, and who knows what else):

1) The Sims 2 Seasons Expansion Pack - Electronic Arts - 104,758 units sold
2) World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Expansion Pack - Vivendi - 87,087 units sold
3) World Of Warcraft - Vivendi
4) Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars - Electronic Arts
5) The Sims 2 - Electronic Arts
6) Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars Kane Edition - Electronic Arts
7) Stalker: Shadow Of Chernobyl - THQ
8) Supreme Commander - THQ
9) Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Shivering Isles Expansion Pack - 2K Games - 25,201 units sold
10) 3333 XP Games JC - Viva Media - 24,938 units sold

The interesting thing - not a single PC game shows up in the March top 30 in terms of sales. It is all console games.

[Squeek]

I guarantee you within a couple of years, someobdy will put a commercially successful MMO or RTS on the XBox 360, and within a couple of years after that, those genres will be dead too as developers jump ship to dumb their games down for the consoles.
While they're doing that, somebody else is putting more and more PC functionality into consumer-electronics devices like telephones and PDAs.

[doctor_kaz]

Those sales numbers do look pretty bad. Supreme Commander was only a month old and it looks like it was only in about the 25,000 range. I'm surprised that even Burning Crusade didn't sell over 100,000.

[txa1265]

I'm surprised that even Burning Crusade didn't sell over 100,000.

Yeah, but it sold like 2 million or more in the first month in the US, and more than 3.5 million worldwide in that same month. So it is doing alright ...

[Maylander]

The point about PC gaming being cheaper is still: Everyone has a computer, whether they play games or not. If they want to play a game, all they have to do is buy a game for the PC they already own. If they want to play a console game, they have to buy the console first, and then the game.

At any rate, I don't think that point is going to make a huge difference for anyone. I do, however, believe that the diversity of PC games in general is enough to keep it floating. Whether it's online games, strategy games, RPGs, there's always something that you'll find on PC that you won't find elsewhere.

PC gaming isn't in serious trouble. The big companies are still going strong, people are just being overdramatic. I'd love to see the total PC incomes of EA or Blizzard after all the success they've had with the Sims and World of Warcraft.

[roqua]

Not counting digital distrobution is going to skew everything pretty badly. I don't buy boxes any more. I just bought UFO: AFterlight and Genforge 4. If I had to go to the store I wouldn't have any game. I wasn't going to buy burning crusade, but then they offered it as a digital download, so I did. I almost bought stalker on D2D, but then I remembered I don't like those games and would just be wasting my money. If I went to the store I wouldn't even have picked up the box. Digital gets you because you read a review and can buy it right then, I have to constantly remind myself that everyone has very poor taste in games after reading a review or a forum thread on it to control my spending.

I am sure there are a lot of people like me that only buy digital. And digital has to be doing well, or d2d would've went under instead of having huge releases on the first day of release. Without online sales numbers any comparison is invalid. We need total sales to compare.

[Dhruin]

I buy digital wherever possible.

[txa1265]

Not counting digital distrobution is going to skew everything pretty badly.
Very true - I said elsewhere that it amazes me that the gaming media, who are always obsessed with hawt tech, are so low tech when it comes to counting sales.

[KasperFauerby]

I would buy many titles digital if it weren't the case that PC games are becomming so damn cheap here in Denmark because of an ever increasing number of titles that goes to the bargain bin. A new title costs about $50 here (which I guess is about the same as in the US) - but they very quickly drop in price. I went to an online store and they had 519 PC titles at $15 or less!! Even fairly new releases, such as the FEAR expansion pack, can be had extremely cheap (it was listed at $10 in the before mentioned online shop). When I saw Deus Ex were released at steam for $9 I was very tempted to re-buy it, but then I checked the price for a boxed copy - $6 :)

[Gorath]

Very true - I said elsewhere that it amazes me that the gaming media, who are always obsessed with hawt tech, are so low tech when it comes to counting sales.
But how would you count online sales? Why should online stores be interested in disclosing their sales numbers?

[txa1265]

But how would you count online sales? Why should online stores be interested in disclosing their sales numbers?

No clue ... but I think that if they didn't sweep it under the rug it could percolate up to where the Steams and D2D's would talk numbers.

[bjon045]

Only someone with a very limited perspective could say PC gaming is dying or even in trouble. The truth is that while the PC gaming piece of the pie is proportionately smaller the overall size of the pie is increasing more than enough to compensate for the smaller percentage of total games sold for the PC. PC sales never slid in 2005 online publishers like Valve's Steam and Big Fish who sell casual games more than picked up the slack. Casual online games are expected to sell over $800 million this year. PC gaming isn't dying, it's booming.

[Corwin]

Unfortunately, much of the digital stuff is not available here. I've tried, but up pops a little annoying message which says that it's only available in the US and Canada!! :(

[doctor_kaz]

Casual online games are expected to sell over $800 million this year. PC gaming isn't dying, it's booming.

So games like Tetris and Bejeweled are prospering? Yippee. I'm sure that all of the grandmas and bored housewives are thrilled about that. The rest of us who want to play good games fit for this century that aren't MMO's are still shit out of luck. And like I said previously, the days of MMO exclusivity on PC's are numbered. If you don't believe me, then look at the state of the first person shooter. If you had told people five years ago that the FPS genre would soon be reduced to one decent release every other year, they would have told you that you were crazy. But that's exactly where the genre is now.

[narpet]

I took this from wikipedia, so I'm not sure how accurate it is... sources are quoted though, so take it for what it's worth:

US PC Game Software Sales (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pc_game_sales)

1998 - $1.7 billion
1999 - $1.9 billion
2000 - $1.78 billion (84.9 million units)
2001 - $1.75 billion (83.6 million units)
2002 - $1.4 billion (61.5 million units)
2003 - $1.2 billion (52.8 million units)
2004 - $1.1 billion (45 million units)
2005 - $953 million (38 million) + $344 million digital sales
2006 - $970 million

If this is even anywhere near accurate what it tells us is that PC gaming may not come close to the sales of console gaming, and it may be declining in sales, but it's nowhere near dead. Nobody is going to suddenly stop a business that is bringing in over $900 million a year.

[magerette]

So games like Tetris and Bejeweled are prospering? Yippee. I'm sure that all of the grandmas and bored housewives are thrilled about that. The rest of us who want to play good games fit for this century that aren't MMO's are still shit out of luck. And like I said previously, the days of MMO exclusivity on PC's are numbered. If you don't believe me, then look at the state of the first person shooter. If you had told people five years ago that the FPS genre would soon be reduced to one decent release every other year, they would have told you that you were crazy. But that's exactly where the genre is now.

Watch with the gramma aspersions ;) There's a crazy lady around here with a pitchfork of doom that could make things ugly :)

Seriously, the more people being introduced to pc gaming, whether they are lowly females or kids or even the dreaded 'casual gamers' , can only improve the chances of developers and publishers remaining in the platform. Gaming is addictive-hopefully in a good way--and someone could easily start with Tetris, move to Puzzle Quest and be playing Baldur's Gate in a few months, then bemoaning the lack of good rpgs. :)

The fact that decent pc genre releases are "reduced to 1 every other year" has a lot more to do with development costs associated with over the top graphics and huge teams than it does with a lack of market for the product.

That and the overwhelming greed that requires that a title sell X billion copies before it's considered a success.

[roqua]

I took this from wikipedia, so I'm not sure how accurate it is... sources are quoted though, so take it for what it's worth:

US PC Game Software Sales (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pc_game_sales)

1998 - $1.7 billion
1999 - $1.9 billion
2000 - $1.78 billion (84.9 million units)
2001 - $1.75 billion (83.6 million units)
2002 - $1.4 billion (61.5 million units)
2003 - $1.2 billion (52.8 million units)
2004 - $1.1 billion (45 million units)
2005 - $953 million (38 million) + $344 million digital sales
2006 - $970 million

If this is even anywhere near accurate what it tells us is that PC gaming may not come close to the sales of console gaming, and it may be declining in sales, but it's nowhere near dead. Nobody is going to suddenly stop a business that is bringing in over $900 million a year.

This is just US data also, PC are stronger and consoles weaker I think in Europe and AU. Also, counting the digital sales in 05, thats 1.3 billion in sales. Unit sales went ip on 06, and we can saefly assume so did digital. I know access became far more easier in 06 from 05 in digital purchases. So we can assume at least 1.4 billion safely total sales. The trend is going up.

This is bad for me. I am yearning for the death of AAA PC gaming, as that will usher in my age of good games again I predict.

[doctor_kaz]

This is bad for me. I am yearning for the death of AAA PC gaming, as that will usher in my age of good games again I predict.

AAA PC gaming is already pretty much dead. Basically, the PC nowadays is World of Warcraft and minesweeper/sudoku/bejeweled. Isn't that the problem?

Almost a 50% drop in sales is very large, especially when you consider that the US economy was very strong for most of the years between 1998 and 2007. I can believe that there are a lot of missing numbers from MMORPG fees, but I don't think that there's much being missed in the digital download neighborhood (e.g. Steam and Direct2Drive)

[txa1265]

This is just US data also, PC are stronger and consoles weaker I think in Europe and AU.

Yes, I think that top PC titles are often the overall top UK games, which hasn't been true in the US ... forever.

[roqua]

AAA PC gaming is already pretty much dead. Basically, the PC nowadays is World of Warcraft and minesweeper/sudoku/bejeweled. Isn't that the problem?

Almost a 50% drop in sales is very large, especially when you consider that the US economy was very strong for most of the years between 1998 and 2007. I can believe that there are a lot of missing numbers from MMORPG fees, but I don't think that there's much being missed in the digital download neighborhood (e.g. Steam and Direct2Drive)

Lets look at this by up and down in sales:

98 to 99=+.2b
99/00=-.12b
00/01=-.03b
01/02=-.35b
02/03=--.2b
03/04=-.1b
04/05=+.2b
05/06=+at least .1b

The trend is going back up. Will it be back at 1.9 like in 99 soon? Who knows, we'll see. In think TXa is a stats guy. I sucked and barely passed stats in college, but I do think there isn't enough data for anyone to predict, but the indication is that it will continue to go up.

And as to mmo's on consoles. You need a keyboard, interface mods and the modding community is on pc. If anything I see mmo's on the console as a stepping stone to console mmo players moving to the pc.

Again, I pray for the end of mainstream pc gaming, because my pc gaming hayday ended years ago and misery loves company (and I'm banking on indies increasing dramatically with the death of the mainstream), so I want to be with you, I just don't see it.

edit to add on about the keyboard: if you have a keyboard you need something to place it on. Sitting on the couch with a mouse and keyboard just doesn't seem like it will cut it. So you are at a desk with a mouse and keyboard, you don't have the interface enhancements of the pc players, all you do is play the game, the expansion comming out only has better graohcis on the pc, why not just take the small leap and play on the much better for platform for mmo's, the pc.

I can see wow coming out with a console version, but I don't see any series players playing on the console for long I guess is my point. The difference between sit-up and lay back games that that article someone has to remember explained years ago.

[doctor_kaz]

You don't need a keyboard for an MMORPG, if you have voice chat and the game is simplified enough. People also used to say that first person shooters wouldn't work on a console. Well, they work, and they are also very popular (they suck compared to mouse and keyboard, but by golly, they work).

Again, I pray for the end of mainstream pc gaming, because my pc gaming hayday ended years ago and misery loves company (and I'm banking on indies increasing dramatically with the death of the mainstream), so I want to be with you, I just don't see it..

Do you really think that it will be a good thing if the PC is dominated by amateurs and developers with only three people? That's what it was like in the 1980's.

[roqua]

You don't need a keyboard for an MMORPG, if you have voice chat and the game is simplified enough. People also used to say that first person shooters wouldn't work on a console. Well, they work, and they are also very popular (they suck compared to mouse and keyboard, but by golly, they work).

Thats the thing, if its simplified enough. Wow sucks in the casual gamer and makes them not so casual. The hot console fps's aren't dumbed down pc fps's. They are the same. Mmorpgs for the console will need, and I stress need, a keyboard just for all the buttons you need. An auto target thing and circle control things isn't the answer. You can't play wow without a keyboard. You can, but your functionality goes to useless. There are keyboards for consoles. But playing an fps and playing a mmorpg are two different things.


Do you really think that it will be a good thing if the PC is dominated by amateurs and developers with only three people? That's what it was like in the 1980's

Well, I don't see the people that are making the good games as the amateurs, and to answer your question, yes. A very strong and solid yes. I would dance with joy and be able to love again. And laugh. I would do a lot of laughing.

[narpet]

Do you really think that it will be a good thing if the PC is dominated by amateurs and developers with only three people? That's what it was like in the 1980's.

List of Computer RPGs sorted by year (http://www.mobygames.com/browse/games/dos/role-playing-rpg/offset,0/so,1a/list-games/)

If you check out that list, there were some amazing CRPGs made from the 80's into the mid 90's. I know that the graphics and sound just weren't there... but for me personally it has always been about gameplay, story, imagination (mine and the game creator's), and fun.

I guess it can be different for different people. And it also matters whether you lived through it or not. I got to play all those games when they were new so I have great memories. But I don't live with "nostalgia" glasses on, because I still pull those games off the shelf and play them. And I enjoy them just as much now as I did then. So I would also like it if it went back to the way it was in the 80's and 90's. Then you had people making games because they loved them... they wanted to see if they could create something cool that all their geeky brethren would like. Now you have people going to college specifically to learn programming, hoping to make money and a big name for themselves. They too want to create something cool... but they are led by the knights of marketing who dictate what they can and can't create.

I'm all for indie developers who want to bring back the glory of PC gaming for hardcore gamers. But (and now I'm going to contradict myself...) I also like the big titles... it really boils down to fun. If I have fun playing it, that's all that matters... because that's really all it's about.

<<edit>>

This is the list of computer RPG games (for DOS) made in 1988 alone:
2400 A.D. *
Alternate Reality: The City
Autoduel *
The Bard's Tale II: The Destiny Knight *
BattleTech: The Crescent Hawk's Inception *
Demon's Winter *
DND
Dracula in London
Eamon
Evets: The Ultimate Adventure
Freedom: Rebels in the Darkness
J.R.R. Tolkien's War in Middle Earth
Might and Magic II: Gates to Another World *
Moraff's Revenge
Nobunaga's Ambition
Paladin
Paladin Quest Disk: The Scrolls of Talmouth
Phantasie III : The Wrath of Nikademus *
Pool of Radiance *
Questron II *
Scavengers of the Mutant World
Sentinel Worlds I: Future Magic *
The Shadows of Mordor
Star Command *
Times of Lore
Ultima V: Warriors of Destiny *
Visions of Aftermath: The Boomtown
Wasteland *
Wizard Wars
Wizardry IV: The Return of Werdna *

Out of that list I consider 14 of them to be incredible games (my personal opinion - the ones marked with stars)... most that I still play to this day. Can anyone think of a recent year where there were 14 or more great CRPGs for the PC? They truly were the good old days. ;)

[xSamhainx]

everything doesnt necessarily come down to the latest sales figures. Lots of people are still playing pc games, just not necessarily the newest ones. Check Battlenet or any of it's equivelents out there, theyre loaded with people, some still playing games from the 90's. Gaming forums are loaded with people talking about their games of choice, game sites are all over the place. Many people play older titles for years, as many people here on this board do. If something new comes out of interest, we'll buy it. I have such a major backlog of older titles, and every time I turn around there's a new one in the bargain bin! Will I ever catch up?

PC gaming isnt dead or dying, it's just not creating huge fireworks at the moment. I wouldnt stress about it.