Kosovo

[VPeric]

Any opinions about it?

(I had a decently witty one-liner for this, but I've, sadly, managed to forget it)

I'd rather wait before giving my opinion, too, because I'm (probably quite a bit) biased. ;)

[txa1265]

Is that the place in that song (http://www.amazon.com/Sounds-Summer-Very-Best-Beach/dp/B000093BDX/ref=pd_bbs_1/002-3448189-0047267?ie=UTF8&s=music&qid=1190834540&sr=8-1) ... ?

[Squeek]

No, I think it's James Taylor: "Oh, Kosovo...It sounds so simple I just got to go..."

[Prime Junta]

A friend of mine was a member of the group in charge of EU's Balkan policy. He was pretty discouraged by what he saw in Kosovo. His impression was that they're all stone killers more interested in offing each other than actually making something out of that patch of land. Big surprise there, they've been at it for 2000 years or more (depends on where you start counting; the Thracians and the Illyrians weren't exactly the most neighborly of folk waay back when). Even the Ottomans couldn't pacify the place, and they tried every trick in the book; playing it soft, bribery, manipulation, co-optation, invasion, occupation, and eventually just stacking skulls in really big piles. Nothing worked, any better than Tito's success at keeping a lid on it for a few decades. The word "Balkanization" wasn't invented by accident.

[VPeric]

Yeah, well, it obviously hasn't been perfect (though I DO believe Tito had a chance to "fix" it - instead, he just poured donations in and left the problem for the future generations), but the real question is: What is going to happen now?

The Albanians will stop at nothing short of full independance (probably choosing to merge with Albania in the not-too-distant future), but the Serbs will not relent easily. Of course, the hands of Serbia are tied, because we can't send it forces, or really, apply any sort of pressure on them, and they know it, and so continue to terrorize (in various ways) the remaining Serbian population.

The international community doesn't particulary care, either - they are all thinking of their own interests when deciding about Kosovo (even, and especially Russia, the "great friend of Serbs" and such - they and China are only supporting us because the other way would be a major precedent, unfavorable for them). On the other side of the pond, the US doesn't have such problems (not to mention all the conspiracy theories along the lines of "They bombed it so they could access the (rich) mineral deposits there!"). And finally, the EU is doing their best to stabilize the situation, with the "It'll all be EU soon enough, anyway" position - while probably true, it is far less favorable for the Serbs (at least in the short-term) than the Albanians, which is why it isn't expected.

In the end, I expect that the EU will prevail, by giving Kosovo a (very) loose kind of autonomy, and "bribing" Serbia by helping them on their way to EU membership. Still, there are perils, because Serbia accepting such a deal right away might be exactly the sort of push needed to install the nationalist radical party into power - a bad outcome by everyone's standard.

[Corwin]

I have never really understood this conflict between Serbs and Croats and why it has lasted so long. Could you please give us a brief history lesson!!

[Prime Junta]

I have never really understood this conflict between Serbs and Croats and why it has lasted so long. Could you please give us a brief history lesson!!

How brief?

The very brief version is that Serbs believe that Croats aren't Christians and should be killed, that Croats believe that Serbs aren't Christians and should be killed, both believe that because Bosnians and Albanians are Muslims they should be killed, Bosnians (being Muslims) believe Serbs and Croats should accept their status as dhimmis (or be killed, their choice), and Albanians believe that because they're descended from the Thracians their purpose in life is to kill everybody else, preferably with a really big sword. Oh, and Montenegrans will kill anyone who sets foot on their mountain because they're probably out to steal their sheep.

A slightly less provocative way of putting it is that the Balkans are a nasty neighborhood. It's been bang in the middle of the crossroads of Eastern and Western Christianity and Islam. They've been invaded, pillaged, occupied, forcibly converted, and put to the sword pretty much continuously, either by each other or by external powers (the Romans, the Huns, the Byzantines, the Turks, the Bulgars, etc. etc.). That sort of thing will mess with your head, as well as shift borders and peoples pretty much continuously, which leaves a lot of people with grudges.

Take Kosovo, for example. Nowadays it's mostly ethnic Albanian. However, it used to be a part of the Serbian kingdom, and a battle fought there (which the Serbs lost) plays a critical part in the Serbian national mythos -- they pretty much consider it the place where Serbia originated. But they can't stand the Albanians, and the Albanians aren't inclined to leave. So there you have it.

Oh, and they can't agree who originally came up with Uzka Dara. All of 'em claim it as their song. Including the Bulgarians and the Turks.

[Squeek]

OK, I'm pretty sure that's not the place James Taylor was singing about (or The Beach Boys). ;)

[magerette]

I had to find a world map to locate Kosovo--from what I could tell, it is a Serbian province. Prime Junta's and your descriptions, VPeric, portray a situation that sounds ugly, but I'm unsure what your question is. Is there an intensifying conflict going on that could draw U.N. participation or lead to a full-fledged war between the factions and ethnic groups? Is Kosovo's affiliation to Serbia in question? Just curious also what you think should be going on and what needs to happen next.

[txa1265]

I had to find a world map to locate Kosovo--from what I could tell, it is a Serbian province. Prime Junta's and your descriptions, VPeric, portray a situation that sounds ugly, but I'm unsure what your question is. Is there an intensifying conflict going on that could draw U.N. participation or lead to a full-fledged war between the factions and ethnic groups? Is Kosovo's affiliation to Serbia in question? Just curious also what you think should be going on and what needs to happen next.

I think that area is *always* in conflict ... WWI anyone?

[Corwin]

What has bothered me in the past, is that we have a large number of both Serbian and Croatian refugees come to live here, and they try to continue their conflict HERE!! I have no problem with taking in and helping refugees, but I do when they bring their 'attitude' with them!!

[VPeric]

Is there an intensifying conflict going on that could draw U.N. participation or lead to a full-fledged war between the factions and ethnic groups? Is Kosovo's affiliation to Serbia in question? Just curious also what you think should be going on and what needs to happen next.

Yes, there is in fact an intensifying conflict, though the UN is already involved - Kosovo has been under "UN administration" since 1999. Anyway, the conflict coming up is over the status of Kosovo: the Albanians want independancy, while we (obviously) don't. You can get a general overview of the situation on Wikipedia, and it's probably better written than any explanation I'd come up with:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_status_process

I think that area is *always* in conflict ... WWI anyone?

Actually, WWI was fairly tame considering the later conflicts: During the first part of the war, when we got flanked by the Bulgarians, the Serbian army was mostly just retreating over Kosovo, so there wasn't too much fighting going on. During the second part of the war, the Macedonian front was broken, obviously, in Macedonia and by Kosovo the Serbian army was just sweeping the Austrians away.

If you are referring to the Balkan wars, maybe, they were over Macedonia, and not Kosovo.

What has bothered me in the past, is that we have a large number of both Serbian and Croatian refugees come to live here, and they try to continue their conflict HERE!! I have no problem with taking in and helping refugees, but I do when they bring their 'attitude' with them!!

Yes, well, what can change the nature of man? (wow, I'm using stuff from a game in a real world discussion! :P)

[Prime Junta]

I had to find a world map to locate Kosovo--from what I could tell, it is a Serbian province. Prime Junta's and your descriptions, VPeric, portray a situation that sounds ugly, but I'm unsure what your question is. Is there an intensifying conflict going on that could draw U.N. participation or lead to a full-fledged war between the factions and ethnic groups? Is Kosovo's affiliation to Serbia in question? Just curious also what you think should be going on and what needs to happen next.

The Balkans are fascinating for any war nerd, and it's something I've been meaning to read up more on for a while now, but I always seem to get distracted by the Middle East. More brutality than you can shake a stick at over the last century alone, with everybody taking their turn at being the bad guys. For example, the Croats sided with the Nazis in WW2; their Ustasha out-SS'ed the SS, but then the Serbs under Milošević reintroduced ethnic cleansing into Europe.

As previously stated, currently Kosovo is a part of Serbia, but it's under UN administration. It's ethnically mostly Albanian, with a few Serb enclaves especially towards the north of the province and around the capital, Priština. What's going to happen? What should happen? Tough questions.

My personal view is that the rights of the people who live there are more important than abstract national rights to the terrain. That is, the people of Kosovo should decide. Unfortunately that's not a perfect solution either, since if it was up to the Albanians, I'm pretty sure they could muster up a majority to expel (=ethnically cleanse) the Serb minority from there. So whatever happens, I'm pretty sure the region will stay interesting for a quite a while into the future.

[txa1265]

From Yahoo News: Serbia and Kosovo start direct talks (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070928/wl_nm/serbia_kosovo_dc_7)

Major powers have set a December 10 deadline for an agreement on the final status of Kosovo, which has been in legal limbo under U.N. administration since 1999, when NATO waged an air war to drive out Serbian forces and halt ethnic cleansing.

Serbia, backed by Russia with its U.N. veto power, rejects independence for Kosovo. But the territory's 2 million ethnic Albanians -- 90 percent of the population -- will settle for nothing less and have warned of violence if they are thwarted.

A joint New York Declaration issued after the meeting said: "The parties reiterated their commitment to engage seriously in these talks. The troika (of mediators) reminded the parties of the (U.N.) Secretary-General's statement of August 1 that the status quo is not sustainable."

[magerette]

Thanks for filling me in a bit more on things, all.

"...the status quo is not sustainable." doesn't sound like a very hopeful development.

[Bartacus]

It might seem strange my opinion in this matter because it goes directly against the way of what the 'western' countries want. I think that Kosovo is nothing but an a province of Serbia where in the past a lot of Albanians came to live. It would be the same like all the Dutch people would move to Antwerp (province of Belgium) and the declare independincy for it. Not exactly sth that feels right for me, so for me a truely independent Kosovo is out of the question. I think that the status quo of what it is now, might be the best.

[Pladio]

Status quos can last for a long time brewing hatred and malcontent among people who want something more than that and will most likely erupt one day or another.

[Prime Junta]

@Bartacus, that's because the European mentality has shifted a quite a lot towards the "post-nationalist." Many people in Europe don't consider a national state such a big deal anymore -- many European states are multinational to start with, some of them work quite well as such, and the European Union has further weakened the concept.

But, unfortunately, the concept of the nation-state is still alive, well, and very venomous in much of the world. Those kinds of conflicts feed themselves; they don't burn out, they smolder on for hundreds or even thousands of years, or until one of the parties is exterminated or expelled. Ethnic cleansing is the only solution known to work for this type of conflict. A bit like a bullet in the back of the head is the only known cure for pancreatic cancer.

[magerette]

Apparently things are heating up a bit on this issue for Kosovo and Serbia..looks like a diplomatic nightmare.

From yahoo news:

Kosovo gears up for independence move

By Matt Robinson Mon Dec 10, 4:57 PM ET

PRISTINA (Reuters) - Kosovo Albanians said on Monday they would start immediate talks with Western backers about an independence declaration, but Russia said unilateral recognition could trigger a "chain reaction" of problems around the world.

With a U.N. deadline for agreement on the fate of Serbia's breakaway province expiring on Monday, Serbia said it would try to seek an International Court of Justice opinion on the legitimacy of a declaration of independence.

In Brussels, EU ministers said they had come closer to agreeing a common position on independence for Kosovo.

"From today, Kosovo begins consultations with key international partners to coordinate the next steps to a declaration of independence," Skender Hyseni, spokesman of Kosovo's negotiating team with Serbia, said in Pristina.

"Kosovo and the people of Kosovo urgently need clarity on their future ... The institutions of Kosovo will deliver that clarity very soon."

He said a declaration would come "much earlier than May," referring to one rumored timeframe.

In Washington, the State Department echoed the urgency and reaffirmed it backed moves to help Kosovo towards supervised independence with provisions to protect its Serb minority.

"U.N. MUST DECIDE"

Serbia, firmly against independence, insisted that only the United Nations had the authority to determine Kosovo's future.

"That process belongs to the U.N. Security Council and to all countries that are members of the U.N., not to the EU," Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic said on the sidelines of a conference in Belgrade about EU accession.

President Boris Tadic told state television that Serbia would urgently ask the Security Council to request an opinion from the International Court of Justice, "asking whether the independence of Kosovo would be legal."

Even if the divided Council agreed to send such a request, the Court could take years to issue an opinion, which would in any case be advisory and non-binding.

Kosovo, which has a 90-percent Albanian majority, has been in legal limbo under U.N. administration since NATO bombing in 1999 pushed out Serbian forces to end ethnic cleansing.

Serbia's main ally on the issue is Russia, able to veto any recognition of Kosovo by the U.N. Security Council.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said in Nicosia that a unilateral declaration would "create a chain reaction throughout the Balkans and other areas of the world."

Later, after meeting EU officials in Brussels, he said Russia would pre-empt any moves by Western powers to win U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's backing for the view that U.N. Resolution 1244 could remain valid even after independence.

The resolution is the basis for international supervision of Kosovo's protectorate status, and could help the EU in its aim of taking over police and justice tasks in Kosovo from the United Nations, while NATO troops remain in place.

"The institution of the secretary-general ... should not in anyway be compromised, and we will do what we can to ensure that is the case," Lavrov said.

EU STILL DIVIDED

The European Union's internal divisions paralyzed its attempts to halt the Balkan wars of the 1990s. This time it is seeking a unified position to try to encourage Serbia and Russia to accept independence for Kosovo, and to enable the EU to take responsibility for helping to maintain order there.

But at least three nations -- Spain, Cyprus and Slovakia -- blocked agreement at talks in Brussels on Monday.

"We are in support of a negotiated settlement ... and would not like to see anything undermining the international legal basis," Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou Markoullis said.

Spain's Miguel Angel Moratinos said: "Never in history has a unilateral declaration of independence been positive."

Slovakia also said it would find it hard to recognize an independent Kosovo, though Foreign Minister Jan Kubis said the EU could still deploy a 1,600-strong police mission there.

The EU executive would also like to appoint a civilian representative in a supervisory role in Kosovo.

French Secretary of State for Europe Jean-Pierre Jouyet said he expected some EU capitals to take time to recognize Kosovo's sovereignty but insisted all would back the mission, adding: "That will be the yardstick on which unity will be measured."

Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation by telephone with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday, Russian news agencies reported.

Four months of internationally-mediated talks on Kosovo, which ended last week, produced no compromise between Serbia and Kosovo's Albanians on Kosovo's future status.

[Alrik Fassbauer]

Both sides are acting like Barbarians, imho, and I have quite some suspicions against the Serbians, because of how they behaved in their last wars.

They will NEVER give up the Kosovo, and will claim this for their "national teritory" in even 10.000 years. This is - as far as I know - partly diue to the immense importance of the Battle of the Amselfeld http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kosovo to the Serbians.

They take this as their "national trasure", this field.
So they'll never give it up, ever.

[VPeric]

Both sides are acting like Barbarians, imho, and I have quite some suspicions against the Serbians, because of how they behaved in their last wars.

Would you care to elaborate? I like knowing how the foreigners think of us. :)

[Prime Junta]

I can't say what exactly Alrik has in mind, but the little business at Srebrenica did give the Serbs a bad name in much of Europe. It looked too much like the bad old days of WW2.

Of course, you can complain about being singled out -- the Croats and Bosniaks were certainly no angels either. But there you are; you live in an interesting part of the world. The last remnant of the real Old Europe, some would say...

[magerette]

I'm unsure about all the ramifications here, but it looks like a recipe for civil war at this point, with the Russians seeming to be on the side of stability for the status quo(Kosovo remaining a Serbian entity), the US pushing for autonomy, and the EU unsure of it's position. Does this seem accurate, and if so, is a civil war within Serbia for possession of this province a significant factor as Russia states, in a "destablization" of the entire region, or is it more a chapter in Serbian issues than a larger trend toward fragmentation of nations into smaller sovereign states?

It's all very far away from where I am, but it seems like something that affects a great many people and policies and could have larger consequences over time.

[Prime Junta]

I'd also very much like to hear VPeric's take on the situation. Is there a real risk of war, or are the Serbs going to grin and bear it (for now?)

[VPeric]

Civil war? No, probably not. And even if it happened, it would certainly be confined to Kosovo itself (plus maybe a few surrounding areas, like the valley of Preševo/Medveđa/Bujanovac). Realistically, though, Serbia doesn't even dare send troops, and even if it did, what guarantees "victory" for us (look what happened last time!)?

As for the my take on the whole situation, it is fairly pessimistic: I believe Kosovo is, and has been, lost for quite a while. The current policy towards Kosovo is somewhat similar to Milošević's way - instead of trying to solve the problem, it is delayed perpetually; I'd say Koštunica is the one to blame for this. IMO, our government should take a more pragmatic approach: they should try their best to protect the Serbs living there, protect Serbian property on Kosovo, and, well, dump Kosovo's share of our debt on it (I believe it sits at at least 20% of our total debt).

[VPeric]

Kosovo MPs proclaim independace (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7249034.stm) (Feb 17th)

US embassy in Belgrade attacked (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7256158.stm) (today)

Plus other assorted acts of vandalism the past few days (pushing dumpsters at cops, breaking windows on McDonald's). Thoughts/impressions, anyone?

EDIT: Ooh, pictures (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7257318.stm).

[blatantninja]

I think this is a recipe for disaster in an already unstable area, but I believe that any area where the majority want to self-govern, and especially one that has been operating autonomously for a decade, should have the right to declare themselves independent.

[GhanBuriGhan]

Few things are as frustrating as these eternal ethnic /territorial conflicts. They seem to be entirely immune to any reason. In my lifetime, I think I have seen only one such conflict that seems to be more or less peacefully resolved - northern ireland.
As to Kosovo - I know that the albanians are no angels either, but I think Serbia blew its chance at governing this province. It proved entirely incapable of making peace or keeping this part of their population happy, and during the worst moments came awfully close to another attempt at ethnic cleansing. When it comes to that, I think severing the legal ties is the best thing left to do, so there is a chance to let the scars heal.
Human rights go before territorial integrity. And to make one thing clear: the Albanians should be made to stick to that too. If they mistreat the serbs now in their charge, they should be slapped on the wrist quick and hard.

[magerette]

Kosovo MPs proclaim independace (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7249034.stm) (Feb 17th)

US embassy in Belgrade attacked (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7256158.stm) (today)

Plus other assorted acts of vandalism the past few days (pushing dumpsters at cops, breaking windows on McDonald's). Thoughts/impressions, anyone?

EDIT: Ooh, pictures (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7257318.stm).

My only thoughts are rather rueful, I'm afraid. When I saw the media coverage here for the independence celebration cited in the first link, all I could register was that somewhere in a distant part of the world, a bunch of non-americans were waving our flag and smiling. I don't think I've seen that...well, ever that I can remember.

Of course, the events in the second link restored normalcy to my world. ;)

AFA the rioters, I did see this quote: (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23277147/)

...Doctors at Belgrade's emergency clinic reported treating more than 30 injured, half of whom were policemen. All were lightly injured, said Dusan Jovanovic, deputy chief of the clinic, adding that most of the injured protesters were "extremely drunk."
Not exactly the surprise of the year...

Seriously, I feel for all the people there who must endure the threats of disruption of their lives and the fear of continuing hostility. I hope that a few 'lightly injured' policeman and assorted drunks will be the sum total of the casualties.

[Prime Junta]

Thoughts?

(1) I'm all for the abolition of the nation state, with power devolved to the regional and municipal level on the one hand, and a supra-national level on the other (heavily weighted in favor of the former). IOW, if Kosovo sets a precedent for the Basques, the Welsh, the Scots, the Bretons, the Flemish, the Lombards, or the Lakotah, I'm all for it. (Not to mention Åland and the Saami, in Finland.)

(2) However -- and this is a big however -- this process MUST be done in such a way that minority rights are respected all around. It's only common sense to learn the majority language of whatever region you live in, but minority languages and other group rights must be ensured.

(3) The problem with Kosovo is that it's in a neighborhood with a very bad record of protecting minority rights. Somehow, the rights of Kosovo Serbs must be protected -- but who's gonna do the protecting? There is no neutral third party respected by everyone available. Tricky, and dangerous.

(4) I find certain ironies about the (Christian) Serbs torching the US embassy because the US sided with the (Muslim) Kosovo Albanians. Damned if you do, damned if you don't, and which one is the religion of peace and all that. You guys won't miss your hegemony once you're used to it being gone.

[Geist]

Well, this isn't just about Kosovan independence, but, as is often the case in these situations, it's also a proxy war for control of a strategically important region. The US and major European powers (Germany in particular) have been very active in promoting the breakup of the former Yugoslavia ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to curb Russian influence in the region.
They're playing a pretty dangerous game here though. UN resolution 1244 which was passed following the NATO bombing of Serbia, doesn't provide for an independent Kosovo, and moreover, provides for maintaining the territorial integrity of the Yugoslav federation (Russia wouldn't have agreed to a resolution that allowed for Kosovan seccesion).
Now, in this latest move, the US and the EU are simply bipassing the security council and ignoring international law by sponsoring a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. That certainly sets a dangerous precedent which could spark conflict and destabilization in other countries as well.
Russia has repeatedly stated that it would categorically refuse to accept any Kosovan declaration of independence, so this latest move is certain to accelarate the growing tensions between Russia and the West.
In any case, this move by the US, the UK, France, Germany et al. has little to do with human rights and everything to do with self-interest (and of course the same can be said of Russia's stance as well). Martti Ahtisaaris plan of "conditional independence" for Kosovo basically amounts to the creation of a European protectorate.

[Zaleukos]

I am a bit curious about what strategic value does Kosovo have that would justify the expenses necessary to keep it afloat for a decade or so? The "benefit" of a de facto protectorate is that it might reduce the potential of the place as a hotbed for organised crime, but that is not exactly an intrinsic value of the region... It doesnt have any interesting resources, and is due to geography not exactly a convenient highway to anyplace important. I dont think there are any shifty imperialist machinations behind the recognition of a Kosovo that has been de facto independent for a long time by now.

That said I'm a bit uncertain that it was particularly clever to give the Kosovars the impression that we'd back a unilateral declaration of independence. The situation reminds me a bit of EU:s handling of Cyprus, where one side thinks that it doesnt have to bother with negotiations because the union is on it's side no matter what.

[Prime Junta]

If you take a power-political perspective, I agree that the EU and the USA botched the Kosovo issue (and the Balkans issues in general) big-time; specifically, scrapping the established system of international law (such as it is) in favor of unilateral Nato intervention was colossally stupid, not to mention unfair. Nor is the end result -- a near-anarchic Albanian state with doubtful loyalties and uncertain chances of succeeding, a seriously pissed-off Serbia, and a moderately pissed-off Russia -- exactly an example of a shining diplomatic success.

Still, the Yugoslav succession wars were a tough situation. They brought back to Europe the kind of atrocities that hadn't been seen in these parts since World War 2, and the Security Council did not look like it could reach an agreement about how to intervene. Would it have been possible to intervene in a way that would have mitigated the disaster without running into the train wreck that we're currently seeing? Could the Security Council have reached a consensus that would have made it possible to do this under UN auspices? If not, would non-interference -- letting the massacres and ethnic cleansing continue while doing nothing -- really have been the better option?

I hate to admit it, but I honestly don't know. The Balkans are a seriously complex place; much like the Middle East, only smaller and with less oil. I do know that barging in with guns blazing -- which is essentially what Nato did at the time -- is usually not the best strategy.

As it is, I can only offer my sympathies to everyone in the Balkans; another cycle of war is the last thing we need there. If only we could all just get along...

[Zaleukos]

Given the blatant failure to act in Bosnia earlier I think the NATO intervention made sense at the time. I'm more critical of the "post-processing" of the situation. There's a huge difference between putting an intelligent policy together during peacetime (as Kosovo more or less has enjoyed since 99) and coming up with urgent crisis response which the the intervention was. Unfortunately there is a tendency to ignore hotspots until they blow up into your face...

That said I dont see much potential for outright war after the 90s ethnical cleansing, possibly with the exception of Macedonia. Bosnia might dissolve, but why would it lead to open warfare when the country de facto is split already and there is a strong international military presence in the region?

[Prime Junta]

That said I dont see much potential for outright war after the 90s ethnical cleansing, possibly with the exception of Macedonia. Bosnia might dissolve, but why would it lead to open warfare when the country de facto is split already and there is a strong international military presence in the region?

I wouldn't rule it out.

These situations are a bit like mixing gasoline and air -- certain mixes are more volatile than others. The current situation looks potentially pretty volatile to me: we have 1.8 million Albanians and about 100,000 pretty testy Serbs, with the Serbs concentrated in a few areas, most of them concentrated in areas close to Serbia rather than dispersed among the Albanians. That sort of mix could easily spark a cycle of tit-for-tat mischief -- the Kosovo Serbs refusing to cooperate with the new Kosovo state (and possibly making some low-key mayhem there), Serbia giving them support, and Russia supporting the Serbians; eventually this could piss off the Kosovo Albanians enough to retaliate, and from there on out we're well on our way to breaking out the modern equivalents of torches and pitchforks again.

IOW, we have a situation that has previous led to ethnic cleansing and/or violent border shifts; I'm worried that this could happen again. Not right now, but if things get out of hand. VPeric?

[magerette]

To a politically remote outsider like myself, there are two things that bother me about the situation. One is the unresolved issue of the ethnic minorities and who will govern them--Serbia last I heard (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL2551157520080225) was swearing it would insist on their inclusion and an anullment of independence, with the Kosovan Prime Minister completely rejecting the concept (http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSL26918399), leaving the issue presently at a deadlock that seems irreconcilable. Second is the tendency of Russia to put its money where its mouth is and actively participate, as in this proposal (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2655708820080226) which shows support for Serbia by providing them with access to the Russian gas pipeline.

There's also the question of the region's economics, with Serbia concerned about business as usual development and expansion threatened, and servicing a $150 million a year Kosovan debt (http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL2692001020080226)

While I'd like to think that all these elements can be resolved through diplomatic routes or non-violent negotiations, the balance of things does seem to be significantly upset, and when you mix intervening outside world powers like Russia vs EU/US, local nationalism, religious and ethnic conflict and economic problems, the resulting brew can often explode into something truly nasty. We seem to have an awful lot of that going around these days--nasty, ugly and violent confrontations.

I've had the good fortune to live most of my lifetime in a country untouched by war, in a world racked by small local wars--I wonder frequently now how long this situation will prevail, and what will be the incident that pushes things past the maintenance of balance worldwide, whether all these fires can burn---Middle East, Africa, now Eastern Europe--without becoming one big conflagration. Kosovo may not be that catylist, but I can't help feeling that perhaps something someday soon will.

[Zaleukos]

IOW, we have a situation that has previous led to ethnic cleansing and/or violent border shifts; I'm worried that this could happen again. Not right now, but if things get out of hand. VPeric?

Hasn't ethnic cleansing mainly been a matter of clearing mixed areas and isolated pockets of the other group? I thought the current makeup of Kosovo is one of post cleansing already, with the Serbs mainly in two pockets, one of which borders Serbia and one closer to Macedonia. At least the former pocket (half of Mitrovica and northwards?) is pretty likely to de facto remain part of Serbia and should be safe unless abandoned by the Serb government the way Krajina was, and the Kosovars are far less armed for a takeover than Croatia was in that case. The second pocket is less defensible but should be safe as long as the heaviest armed forces around are NATO rather than Kosovar (though feck knows what happens once NATO leaves in 10-20 years time).

[Prime Junta]

Hasn't ethnic cleansing mainly been a matter of clearing mixed areas and isolated pockets of the other group? I thought the current makeup of Kosovo is one of post cleansing already, with the Serbs mainly in two pockets, one of which borders Serbia and one closer to Macedonia. At least the former pocket (half of Mitrovica and northwards?) is pretty likely to de facto remain part of Serbia and should be safe unless abandoned by the Serb government the way Krajina was, and the Kosovars are far less armed for a takeover than Croatia was in that case. The second pocket is less defensible but should be safe as long as the heaviest armed forces around are NATO rather than Kosovar (though feck knows what happens once NATO leaves in 10-20 years time).

The problem is that Kosovo isn't a viable state unless it manages to extend its authority over all of its territory, and the Serb regions to the north and the enclave to the south don't look like they're ready to play ball. The possible outcomes of that aren't very nice:

(1) Prolonged limbo -- de jure part of Kosovo, de facto under Serbian protection. This would turn them into something of a no-man's land, and certainly lead to friction around the edges. Not good.

(2) A border shift so that the Serb areas to the north are (re)joined with Serbia. This would leave the southern enclave with a big bull's eye painted on it, and would increase the likelihood of the Serbs in the north expelling any Albanians in their territory. Also, Kosovo isn't likely to accept the border change without challenge.

(3) A move by the Kosovo government to exert its authority on the Serb areas. This is probably the nastiest scenario, since in the eyes of the countries that recognized Kosovo this would be a legitimate move, while Serbia and Russia would oppose it strongly -- possibly even with force. If that happens, all bets are off.

[VPeric]

IOW, we have a situation that has previous led to ethnic cleansing and/or violent border shifts; I'm worried that this could happen again. Not right now, but if things get out of hand. VPeric?

Hopefuly, no war this time. You hit the possible outcomes very well, and I'd say option 1 is most likely - it's a bad solution, certainly, but it's better than the alternatives (which lead into more ethnic cleaning sooner or later).

BTW, Zaleukos, Kosovo does actually have lots of resources - various metals and a lot of quality, easily-accessible coal. Speaking of economic issues, the debt thing is very unfortunate (Magerette had a link) - the current political situation means we'll keep paying off their debt, even though we could have offloaded it to them easily during negotiation (and it's a lot of money, somewhere around 10-15% of our total debt).

[Geist]

I am a bit curious about what strategic value does Kosovo have that would justify the expenses necessary to keep it afloat for a decade or so? The "benefit" of a de facto protectorate is that it might reduce the potential of the place as a hotbed for organised crime, but that is not exactly an intrinsic value of the region... It doesnt have any interesting resources, and is due to geography not exactly a convenient highway to anyplace important.

As VPeric pointed out, Kosovo has the second largest reserves of brown coal in Europe, as well as 20 billion tons of lead and zinc and 15 billion tons of nickel. And, interestingly enough, now we hear news of potentially substantial gold deposits as well (http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/significant-gold-results-from-lydians/n20080215103209990013)
Ever since taking control of Kosovo, the joint NATO-UN administration has rapidly pushed forward with the privatisation of the Kosovan economy. Major industries (previously state owned) in mining, manufacturing and agriculture were sold off to private foreign interests.
Probably of greater significance though, is the presence in Kosovo of Camp Bondsteel, (the biggest foreign US military base construction since the Vietnam War) to ensure the security of the adjacent AMBO trans-balkan oil pipeline which will pass through Albania and Macedonia. EU countries have been increasingly concerned about Europe's dependence on Russia for oil and gas imports. The Balkans provide an important conduit for pipeline projects through which oil and gas from the Caspian Sea can be pumped to Western Europe, circumventing Russian territory.

Unfortunately there is a tendency to ignore hotspots until they blow up into your face...

That's a somewhat benign way of looking at the Kosovo issue in my opinion. NATO certainly didn't ignore it. Since the mid 90's, Germany, with US support, was providing logistical, financial and diplomatic support to FARK (later the KLA). This support helped the Kosovan separatists to increase their supply of arms and fighters, allowing them to challenge Serb security forces and take control of large sections of the province. That led to the reprisals by the Serbian military, and, when a humanitarian crisis ensued, NATO was all too happy to unleash their bombers.
I'm not suggesting that the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo didn't have some valid grievances, nor that these conflicts in the former Yugoslavia couldn't have broken out without NATO interference. I am saying that NATO, by supporting separatists and undermining peace treaties, was deliberately instrumental in fomenting ethnic rivalries in the region, in order to bring about the breakup of a socialist, pro-russian state into a series of free market pro-western client states.
Divide et Impera.

[Alrik Fassbauer]

The newspaper says that there are hints that this ... unrest ? was planned by politicians. Local newspapers are said to have found "interesting connections" of some of the people who were active there, and that they even had town maps with the embassys marked !

[Prime Junta]

The newspaper says that there are hints that this ... unrest ? was planned by politicians. Local newspapers are said to have found "interesting connections" of some of the people who were active there, and that they even had town maps with the embassys marked !

And this would surprise you because...?

[zahratustra]

I would have been terribly suprised if there was no political involvement. Let's not forget that Tomislav Nikolić's Serbian Radical Party only narrowly lost 2008 Presidential campaign. Still, since I have expected that Serbs would show their displeasure anyway, political involvement would provide fuel but not the spark IMO.

[blatantninja]

On Sunday, I was heading out for a Texas Independence Day celebration in midtown NYC. Walked smack into a pro-Serbian protest at some Orthodox Church! It was actually kind of funny watching people protest about something occurring half a world away that will likely have no direct impact on their lives.

[Prime Junta]

Walp, here comes the Russian counter-move: [ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7283192.stm ].

(For those unwilling to pollute their browsers with the pinko commie propaganda of BBC, Abkhazia just declared independence. It's a mostly Russian enclave in Georgia, which is currently very pally with the USA and not pally at all with Russia.)

Edit: yes, I noticed that the Russians said that this has nothing to do with Kosovo, at all, perish the thought, cross my heart and hope to die. :rolleyes:

[blatantninja]

It's going to continue to get ugly over there!

[magerette]

Could it be the Russian position on Abkhazia and South Osetia has something to do with Georgia's position on NATO?(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6190858.stm)

And the U.S. is training troops in Georgia...I'm confused--the U.S. is supporting Kosovan independence, but not Abkhazian? Is it solely because of Georgia's pro-Western stance, or is it more spitting in the eye of the Russian Bear? Is it because of oil presence in Kosovo, and a low level, mountainous agricultural economy in Abkhazia? Whatever--I can't say I like it much.

I have to say the UN position seems the most rational. From wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia)
Any settlement must be freely negotiated and based on autonomy for Abkhazia legitimized by referendum under international observation once the multi-ethnic population has returned.

As international chess games go, this one is hard for me to follow.

[zahratustra]

Could it be the Russian position on Abkhazia and South Osetia has something to do with Georgia's position on NATO?
It does. But there is also a marked effort by resurgent Russia to reabsorb (or, at least bring back into Russian sphere of influence) breakaway republics, so Georgia (like ex Warsaw Pact's countries in Europe) needs some strong backing to protect its independence.
And the U.S. is training troops in Georgia...I'm confused--the U.S. is supporting Kosovan independence, but not Abkhazian?
LOL weird isn't it? Condoleezza Rice is desperate to convince the world that Kosovo is a "special case" but the only countries which buy this are those who WANT to buy it. In short, she is preaching to the converted :)
Is it solely because of Georgia's pro-Western stance, or is it more spitting in the eye of the Russian Bear?
Both again but I don't think that US wants to deliberately "spitt in the eye of the Russian Bear". Just that, like with plans for US' "Anti-missile Shield" in Poland and Czech Republic, Bush administration seems to be blissfully ignorant of traditional Russian insecurities and paranoias.

This is something that comes up over and over again:a misguided belief that, because of it's special status, US can get away with policies which would be (or were) condemned if implemented by others.

Bad case of "Chosen Nation" syndrome?
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/tofte6.html

[Prime Junta]

:stupid: What he said.

(No offense intended, that's just the only smiley that points up on this board.)

[magerette]

zahratustra wrote:
..Bush administration seems to be blissfully ignorant of traditional Russian insecurities and paranoias.

That's not all they're blissfully ignorant of--they seem to be just as uninformed on the traditional insecurities of Americans. :)

Thanks for the explanations, and just as I get that layer of information digested, we get this little bit of news:
Serbia's Ruling Coalition Collapses (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23534455/)

The new elections will determine whether Serbia will continue on its path toward the EU and other Western organizations, or return to the international isolation of late strongman Slobodan Milosevic's warmongering era in the 1990s, which is epitomized by Kostunica's hard-line policies.

How does it look to those on the spot-- is a new election the best thing to do at this point, or is this some kind of political machination? My head is starting to hurt...:S

[Zaleukos]

Could it be the Russian position on Abkhazia and South Osetia has something to do with Georgia's position on NATO?(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6190858.stm)

It does, but the situation is quite confused. These places are full of Russian peacekeepers and essentially survive as Russian protectorates, but at the same time Russia doesnt seem too eager to push for official recognition of them (and it is uncertain that Russia will do so even after the Kosovo declaration of independence), partially since they as limbo (rather than officially independent) states are useful pawns against Georgia, partially because federal Russia has potential breakaway regions of it's own. Transdnistria in Moldova presents a similar case but with less ethnic cleansing than Abkhasia (or Kosovo for that matter).

And of course I'm in agreement with what zahratustra and PJ said:)


How does it look to those on the spot-- is a new election the best thing to do at this point, or is this some kind of political machination? My head is starting to hurt...:S

Serbia has parliamentarism (e g the government need to have at least passive support from a majority in the parliament), so from what I can tell the election is pretty much unavoidable. Maybe VPeric has a hunch on which side will come out on top?:)

I get the feeling there are two faultlines in Serbian politics, nationalism/"europeanism" and "democracy"/"traditionalist" (not sure what to call the second axis, both sides do accept the democratic process) with the now broken government fragmenting over nationalism and PM Kostunicas "democratic nationalists" possibly aligning with the "traditionalist nationalists" after the election, replacing a "democrat" government with a nationalist one..

[VPeric]

How does it look to those on the spot-- is a new election the best thing to do at this point, or is this some kind of political machination? My head is starting to hurt...:S

It's going to be close, but hopefuly, the "good guys" will win. As it stands now, their best bets to maximize potential votes would be to form two coalitions - DS/G17+ on one side, and LDP/minority parties on the other side - if coalitions aren't made, there will be some "falloff" votes for parties that don't pass the census (5%, 2% for minorities); on the other hand, if they form a huge coalition, they will lose votes (some of LDP's supporters will not vote for Tadić's DS, and vice versa). Tadić and company still have a lot of work, though.

In any case, the alternative means some years of isolation, and that is definitely not the path to take.

[magerette]

Thanks for taking the time to comment. There's no doubt the politics are complex, but it helps to get some insight from those involved. Hope the Serbian elections (and our own upcoming presidential election) will make a change for the better in the status quo.

[magerette]

Other Serbian news:

Bosnian Serb Wartime President Arrested (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25787633/)

Not much coverage in this article--hard to tell from here if this is politically significant or not. Will this be a big deal in Serbia?

[Alrik Fassbauer]

From a symbolic point of view, this is one of the best news this year !
I just despise him.

[Prime Junta]

Nice beard, though. I wouldn't have recognized him. I wonder what kind of alternative medicine he was offering?

[magerette]

Whoa! Just caught the picture and the rest of the story on the news tonight--that was indeed a beard and a half. So it's my understanding the man is a war criminal, but apparently some are protesting against his arrest:

Police, Karadžić supporters clash (http://www.b92.net/eng/news/society-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=07&dd=22&nav_id=52124)

I'd like to disentanlge the participants here, but there are too many unfamiliar acronyms. (SRS, MUP, LDP)--perhaps these are former supporters?

[Prime Junta]

I'm a little bit worried about the fallout on this one; as I said elsewhere, prosecuting war criminals is a luxury that sometimes comes at too high a price. If the price for arresting Karadzic is that Serbia goes up in flames, it's not worth paying, no matter how monstrous the man is (and if he's done a tenth of what he's accused of, he's an upstanding example of European monstrosity, which is saying something). VPeric?

[lilmagi]

I'd like to explain few things magerette asked.
SRS (Srpska Radikalna Stranka) is Serbian Radical Party, an opposition political party in the parliament and very much right wing nationalists.
MUP (Ministarstvo Unutrasnjih Poslova), Ministry of Internal Affairs, is basically a fancy name for national police :P
LDP (Liberalna Demoktratska Partija), Liberal Democratic Party. As name says liberal democrats.
DS (Demoktratska Partija), Democratic Party. Along with SPS (Socijalisticka Partija Srbije, Socialist Party of Serbia) form current government in parliament.

Also a note for the mentioned Obraz movement in the B92 article.
Saying its "ultra right-wing", is very much an understatement. By European standards, they can be called clero-fascist organisation.
Wikipedia Obraz (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obraz)

Now for actual political situation. On one side we have Pro-European socialisticky responsible government formed of DS-G17 with SPS (G17 is another democratic party, but is united with DS now). On other are right winged nationalists, SRS with DSS-NS (DSS Demoktratska Stranka Srbije, Democratic Party of Serbia. NS - Nova Srbija, New Serbia, similar to DS-G17). And on the side are smaller party of LDP with minority parties (minority political parties are formed by minority national groups in Serbia).

SRS leader is Vojislav Seselj, who is currently been trailed in HAG Tribunal.
DS leader is Boris Tadic, current president of Serbia.
SPS was leading political party in '90 with Slobodan Milosevic as its leader. Right now they are reformed pro European (at least that's what they say :P ).
LDP's leader Cedomir Jovanovic was member of DS, but because of disagreement with Tadic he left and formed his own party.
DSS's leader Vojislav Kostunica is former prime minister. Right now prime minister is Mirko Cvetkovic, elected by new government.

Well that's all i can think of right now. If you have questions Ill try to answer them as best as i can :)

[magerette]

Thank you, lilmagi. I can't say I'm not still confused, but at least you deciphered some of the jargon for me. :)

So then, of all these parties, the ones on the far right are the ones defending Karadzic, while the Pro-European socialisticky (love that word!) democrats are interested in trying him for war crimes? And I'll echo Prime Junta's concerns: is this going to make a volatile political environment even more so?

I realize this is undoubtedly an oversimplification, but in trying to understand Serbia I'm starting pretty much from scratch beyond our discussions on this board, so thanks for bearing with me.

[lilmagi]

Yes you are right. Pro-Europeans are for trying for war crimes. While mostly far right are defending him and are against all tribunal system for war crimes.
And i don't think this is going to make a volatile situation, like it was in 2000.
Yes, political parties will milk this for what its worth. Pro Europeans will use it as an example of Serbia going towards Europeans ways, while right wing nationalists will use it as an example of injustice towards Serbian people. But that's all it is going to be.
The only concern of violence are white group organisations such as Obraz, but i believe its nothing that police cant handle.

You have to remember that most of Serbia isn't really for nationalist politics and isolation. And as such, for them arresting of Karadzic is a good thing.

[Zaleukos]

So then, of all these parties, the ones on the far right are the ones defending Karadzic, while the Pro-European socialisticky (love that word!) democrats are interested in trying him for war crimes? And I'll echo Prime Junta's concerns: is this going to make a volatile political environment even more so?


The pro-Europeans are (with the obvious exception of the Socialists who are moving from commie to social democratic positions) more of centrist/European liberals than socialists. Liberal means a position resembling that of Arnold Schwarzenegger on this side of the Atlantic. The nationalists are a mixture of ultra rightists and old communists. I think that Serbia is developing towards a more normal European political spectrum with three poles (Social democrat, Liberal, and Conservative) that form alliances to build majorities. Kostunica's party seems to be the closest to a normal conservative party but The radical party might eventually mellow into such a movement as well (a lot of European parties have suspect pasts, so I dont think the radicals will be tainted forever).

The recent events have gotten a lot of coverage here since we received more than 100 000 refugees from the Yugoslav wars in the early 90s. My impression seems to be that by every new development the nationalist response is weaker as the population knows that peaceful coexistance and cooperation with their neighbours is the only way forward. Kosovo caused a temporary nationalist surge but that has cooled down a bit now. They do keep electing pro-European internationalist governments in spite of the rethoric.

I really hope the EU will use the soft power we have in the Balkans wisely and somehow both make the countries acknowledge the troubled past and feel welcome into the union, but I wouldnt bet a lot on such wisdom from our politicians... EDIT: Hopefully I'll be able to tourist in Serbia without a passport in ten years or so:)

[magerette]

Thanks very much for the clarification, Z (and lilmagi) The tendency of foreign news here is to be extremely simplified, so often the gist escapes me. It's good to hear that forces for stabilization are at work, especially in such an area of divergent ethnic groups and loyalties.

[VPeric]

VPeric?

I was on holiday! :P

As you've already seen, all the stuff about Karadžić has mostly blown over. Yes, there were some clashes, but nothing major (fifteen thousand people does not huge protests make - cf. Kosovo protests). And yes, there was some fighting, but it's just some hooligans who'll take any opportunity to fight. The biggest difference this time was that the police didn't just sit there and take it - they reacted (fairly fast). A change for the better, IMO, but it is different from what they usually do.

As for the arrest itself, there is no denying it is a good thing.

[Prime Junta]

That's a relief. Let's hope this marks the beginning of a better period for Serbia (and the rest of the Balkans, for that matter).