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-   -   Is there a new crisis coming? (http://www.rpgwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14419)

GothicGothicness August 5th, 2011 09:45

Is there a new crisis coming?
 
The stock market has been pointing down down down. The worry about the U.S. debt and Spain and Italy are becoming worse. Things are not really helping in Greece. Worrying signs are coming from china that might lead to a slow down.

Are we heading into a new crisis?

or is it a temporary set back?

If we are heading into a new crisis how bad will it be?

Maylander August 5th, 2011 10:13

It could look like it. Given the situation in various countries (Greece etc), it'll probably vary greatly from country to country. Scandinavia will most likely not be affected too much. We got through the last one without too much trouble (Norway was almost unaffected).

Alrik Fassbauer August 5th, 2011 11:54

I'm growing more and more confident that we'll get a new crisis.

Yesterday I heard in the news - and today I read it in the newspaper - that people are massively transferring their money into "solid curencies" - like Swiss, for example.

THe people from Swiss aren't happy about that at all ! - Simply because it makes their own wares much, much, much more expensive … with the result of no-one wanting to buy their exports anymore (at least not for these high prices).
Which in result damages their economy, too …

I think this crisis will just go on and go on - until people (especially politicians) realize what's the grouznd/basis for all of this stuff.

I tend to more and more firmly believe that the fault lies within the system.


Asides, I just read in the newspaper of today about public demonstrations against unfair social developments - in Isreal !

There, the article says, when Mr. Netanjahu became Prime Minister for the first time (I think he's it now for the second time, am I correct ?) , the state mainly withdrew from the market. Privatisation was the goal.

What happened there was that the banks gave the richest ones credits (German proverb : "Those who have [already] will be given [even more]"), and the riches bought whole market chains, with the result of in Isreal nowadays a tiny, tiny group of super rich people controls 99 % of the WHOLE economy … And besides them are the eroding middle class (same as here in Germany, I notice), and a much-growing number of poor people.

And now, there's social unrest begining in Israel.


Given that the U.S. is a "role model" in terms of economy for far too many countries now,
I fear that the "fault in the system" lies within the U.S. moel of economy . Especially in the case of unbraked privatisation.

Because the system I see here is that this system actively supports thiose who already have lots of money - like in the example of Isreal, where banks gave the biggest credits to the richest people (and organizations, I suppose) who in term bought almost EVERYTHING which in result propelled them into controlling whole markets. ( I could imagine that this system would be able to giving giant, rich companies control over whole STATES/COUNTRIES, if these states or countries are losing more and more money. Even now, there are villages who sell their names for hard money ! - This ould result in a world where companies control jurisdition, make laws and etc. - just because they control the countries like slaves who are so poor they MUST do everything their master(s) say !)

Economical Imprialism as put forward from the U.S. (remember the U.S. supporting even the vilest of dictators just because they were thought by the U.S. politicians to be a wall against communism ? - The Taliban were also a result of that doctrine, because the U.S. supported them because they just fought against the Soviet Union) leads this "unbraked capitalism" being installed in too many countries - and with that the same system with the same faults is installed in these countries.

The result is simple . Since unbraked capitalism both activel and implicitely supports the richest of a given country, it will lead to the same layout of classes like in the U.S. since Reagan : A tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny dot of super-rich people controlling almost everything - an eroded middle class - and the vast majority of poor people.

And of course, rich people would only support *their* systems : Those who at least keep them rich - and at least not those who would make them poorer.

This is how I see it, big picture, and that's why it will come to social unrest, I predict.

Let's pray there won't be an insane preacher putting the guilt of all this onto Jews again … We definitively don't need another Hitler.

aries100 August 5th, 2011 12:15

Alrik says:

Quote:

This ould result in a world where companies control jurisdition, make laws and etc. - just because they control the countries like slaves who are so poor they MUST do everything their master(s) say…
It seems to me that is already happening, Disney got the US Congress to extend their copyright to more than 75 years after something were created (e.g. The law about Mickey Mouse). Facebook and Google and EA etc. do make their own jurisdictions regarding what people can upload to their site, say on their forums etc. etc.

The DMCIA that the US Congress has passed is the result of pressure from EA, the movie companies, the music industry and other game companies as well. Also, the harsh crackdown on (software) pirates is the result of lobbying from all these industries.

Another sign of this is that the US congress is under heavy pressure to make streamlining illegal or even just a link to streamlining or even just a newsbit about streamlining or maybe just copying from say Bioware's site or EA's site or Diablo's forums, then making a newsbit here or at other websites, illegal…

Alrik Fassbauer August 5th, 2011 12:19

Yes, it is happening here as well, I suppose - but [b]implicetely8/b] through the use of Lobbyists and "Experts" who are formulating laws, but who aren't independent, because they have (too) good connections to the industry …

There are several laws of the Merkel Government which have very strong "hints" of being "influenced" by the industries …


But the real danger I see is that of *banks* controlling countries, simply becaue they have loaned the countries so much money they aren't really able top pay them back … We already had that. Think of the Medici, the Fuggers et. al. …

There's a simple rule capitalist economies usulally follow (somone else has developed this rule, not me) :

"Privatize profits, Socialize losses." This is what happened with the banks in the Financial Crisis.


What I don't exacrtly understand is, what you mean with "streamlining" … ?

Zaleukos August 5th, 2011 13:33

The three most obvious powder kegs are Spain, Italy, and the US. Spanish or Italian problems will make Greece look like peanuts and shake the entire EU, and those convulsions will hurt the rest of the world too. The US economy is stagnant and plagued by uncertainty due to a political deadlock over budget problems that should be solvable, putting investment and employment on hold.

The BRIC countries dont yet have quite the domestic demand and purchasing power to make up for problems in the west. China made it through the last crisis thanks to a massive Keynesian spending binge and has it's own debt crisis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maylander (Post 1061084802)
It could look like it. Given the situation in various countries (Greece etc), it'll probably vary greatly from country to country. Scandinavia will most likely not be affected too much. We got through the last one without too much trouble (Norway was almost unaffected).

Norway was and is pretty unique due to a chronic labour shortage and a strong oil industry.:)

Sweden and Finland OTOH are small extremely export-dependent countries (whose economic trajectories are like Germany on steroids during bear and bull markets alike). The manufacturing sector was hit pretty hard during the last crisis. Luckily domestic services and retail held up, but unemployment still went up above 10% for a short while.

Our recovery was faster since we already went through the kind of painful restructuing process that the US and Southern Europe needs in the 90s, making domestic fundaments sound. A new international downturn will hurt us badly again though:(

aries100 August 5th, 2011 16:04

@ Alrik -

Sorry, I meant 'streaming' e.g. us (rpgwatch or others) linking to gamebanshee that has a streaming video of for example Deus Ex: HR or Bioware's DA2 or Diablo 3….
- or even us linking to an article, via GameBanshee, about David Gaider speaking to Gamasutra etc.

hishadow August 5th, 2011 16:29

Too much power and regulation flow from EU so I wouldn't mind a shakeup, but I fear these problems will only lead to more transfer of power.

dteowner August 5th, 2011 18:22

I'm expecting a significant downturn. I don't think it will be "falling off a cliff" like 2008/2009 where we went from moderately slow to end-of-the-world within the span of a couple weeks, but I figure we're in for another significant slowdown. Probably until the 2012 election.

With the tragically overinflated influence of the financial sector, these things tend to be self-fulfilling prophesies. Over the past month, all the news has been negative. Reality hasn't exactly been great, but nowhere near as bad as the analysts and talking heads would have us think. Stock market takes a crap because some pinhead in New York doesn't like the slope on his chart and the herd starts to follow. Corporations pull in the reins to cook their books and prop the stock price back up. Slowdown leads to some manpower reductions. Consumers suddenly get spooked over job losses and stop spending. Economy takes a serious crap. Pinhead in NY throws a parade because he was so good at predicting the future.

Been there, done that. Expect to see it again very soon.

zakhal August 5th, 2011 21:45

We should pay billions to support the extremely rich lifestyle of these people?

Empire of the spivs: We fret about our MPs' expenses, but in Italy the awesome corruption of politicians is frankly beyond belief

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti…#ixzz1UBaf3tu4

Italy: Govt corruption costing €60 billion a year
http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English…3.0.3471577158

I read today about major corruption scandal in italy. The politicans there earn more than US president. They are allowed to buy 200000e cars for one euro. Its totally crazy.

Those who made the decision to take these southern countries to euro should be brought forward and jugded. In no way should they be given more money and power for doing stupid decisions that cost countless billions to ordinary EU citizens.

Its totally disgusting that people who make honest work have to support rich so they can buy maserati's for one euro. If it comes to it I rather have social unrest than this madness.

Zaleukos August 5th, 2011 21:58

dte is pretty much spot on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zakhal (Post 1061084864)
Finland is pays more than anyone in EU - 10 times more (per capita) than germany. And we should pay billions to people like these?

I take it you dont mean net contribution to the EU, since Germany, Italy, and about ten other countries are bigger per capita net contributors to the EU than you guys. Arguing that Finnish money currently go to corrupt Italian politicians is weak atm, even if that might change in the event of a bailout.

Or are you referring to something else?

zakhal August 5th, 2011 22:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zaleukos (Post 1061084869)
dte is pretty much spot on.



I take it you dont mean net contribution to the EU, since Germany, Italy, and about ten other countries are bigger per capita net contributors to the EU than you guys. Arguing that Finnish money currently go to corrupt Italian politicians is weak atm, even if that might change in the event of a bailout.

Or are you referring to something else?

This thread is about bailout so naturally Im talking about that money and the chance that we might have to pay billions to italy. When it comes to bailout money Finland pays 10 times more than germany (per capita).

Zaleukos August 5th, 2011 22:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by zakhal (Post 1061084871)
This thread is about bailout so naturally Im talking about that money and the chance that we might have to pay billions to italy. When it comes to bailout money Finland pays 10 times more than germany (per capita).

I see. Are you referring to the Greece bailouts then? It doesnt seem to hold for the EFSF (or Finland would show in this graph as paying about a third of the German contribution).

EDIT: Just noticed the date is a few months back. Do you have more recent and more accurate data? :)

zakhal August 5th, 2011 22:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zaleukos (Post 1061084873)
I see. Are you referring to the Greece bailouts then? It doesnt seem to hold for the EFSF (or Finland would show in this graph as paying about a third of the German contribution).

EDIT: Just noticed the date is a few months back. Do you have more recent and more accurate data? :)

Its been in finnish news many times but the reason is that finnish share of som eurobank holdings is ten times more so thats why we "have to" pay ten times more. Thats atleast what som politician told us.

Heres one finnish article from economic news that shows the differences:
http://www.taloussanomat.fi/kansanta…sa/20115728/12

First number is credit risk and the second the bail-amount money compared to the risk:
Saksa 22,6% 100,1%
Ranska 17,6% 97,1%
Britannia 18,2% 3,7%
Suomi 0,1% 1080,0%

Its an old article so I think I remember it wrong. The difference is not on capita but risk. Germany and France pay 100% based on risk while we pay 1000%.

There were other articles too but I dont want to go digging right now. Besides the point of my comment was the italian corruption not how much we pay so this is not important.

Is GDP a good measuring tool btw? Our income is only like third of GDP. Last years we have loaned like 10 billion per year making GDP bigger.

zakhal August 5th, 2011 22:33

Belgium was in the finnish news today. Cant find fresh article in english but heres similar month old.

Greece debt crisis likely to hit Italy, Belgium, warns Luxembourg PM
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/1651…etary-fund.htm

Belgium is going under too? Atleast they are not driving maseratis.

JDR13 August 6th, 2011 02:41

It's just been anounced that S&P has downgraded the US's credit rating.

http://news.yahoo.com/p-reconsiderin…001207261.html

hishadow August 6th, 2011 02:56

You know who you're ranked with now yankees?
Quote:

16.03.2006:
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today affirmed its ‘AA-’ long-term foreign currency and ‘AA+’ long-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Iceland. At the same time, the ‘A-1+’ short-term foreign and local currency ratings on Iceland were affirmed. The outlook is stable.

“The ratings on Iceland are supported by its stable political institutions, a very wealthy and flexible economy, and healthy public finances,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Kai Stukenbrock. “The ratings remain constrained by very high levels both of external financing needs and of external debt throughout the economy.”

Public finances remain healthy. Thanks to strong economic growth, privatization proceeds, and budget surpluses up to and including 2006, gross general government debt will continue to decline rapidly, to about 21% of GDP by 2009, from 50% in 2001.

zakhal August 6th, 2011 10:39

Quote:

“Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today affirmed its ‘AA-’ long-term foreign currency and ‘AA+’ long-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Iceland. At the same time, the ‘A-1+’ short-term foreign and local currency ratings on Iceland were affirmed. The outlook is stable.

Public finances remain healthy. Thanks to strong economic growth, privatization proceeds, and budget surpluses up to and including 2006, gross general government debt will continue to decline rapidly, to about 21% of GDP by 2009, from 50% in 2001.
Way to go iceland and their attempt at direct democracy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDR13 (Post 1061084919)
It's just been anounced that S&P has downgraded the US's credit rating.

http://news.yahoo.com/p-reconsiderin…001207261.html

Huh. I didnt expect that. Cant blame US credit rating firms for bias then. I hope this will shock our politicians so they will do somthing before we will loose our AAA rating too.

Tanno August 6th, 2011 14:18

Great news for Ireland. I hope the same will happen for Argentina after its default since 2000. I heard that Argentina is strongly opposed to IMF's ways of fixing things, and Argentina is trying to rebuild what has lost since IMF's raid.

Michael Ellis August 6th, 2011 17:22

“And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them, democracy in its turn is abolished and changes into a rule of force and violence. For the people, having grown accustomed to feed at the expense of others and to depend for their livelihood on the property of others, as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence; and now uniting their forces massacre, banish, and plunder, until they degenerate again into perfect savages and find once more a master and monarch.” - The Histories 6.9.7-9

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-…earance-wealth


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