It's not you, honey, it's me.

Since it's yours, it must be perfect logic—any doubt is, by definition, simply my inability to perceive your obvious infallibility. Got it!

You can call it a cause, or a catalyst, or Bob. Chicago did exactly as you propose in the exact nation in question and had the exact opposite result as you predict. If you've got your head so buried in textbooks that real world data like that doesn't at least make you question your theory, there's not much I can do to help you.