I suppose it depends on where it becomes available upon release, or shortly afterwards.

If it's not exclusive - you're bound to be able to get it relatively cheap within a short period of time.

This is part of the reason I don't think it's very smart to attach a high price to a game like this. It may be niche - but it's not so niche that people will accept anything. Especially not if they're inclined to pirate it.

20$ sounds like the perfect sweet spot to me.