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October 4th, 2007, 20:35
Originally Posted by Chekote View Post
Yes you're absolutely correct. But like I said in my post a few pages back, my predictions are based on a 10 year time frame at least.
Sorry… I missed that.

However, even though the rate at which technology changes is fairly rapid, the rate at which new consumer technologies is completely and universally accepted is very slow. You can look at any type of media storing technology that has existed in the last 100 years.

Examples:
1. When audio Compact Discs were released to the general public in (somewhere around) the early 1980s everyone said that vinyl records would be gone within a very short period of time, and that cassette tapes would shortly follow the demise of vinyl. But that's not what happened. It took many years before vinyl was no longer produced, and it took a very long time (way more than 10 years) before cassette tapes became a thing of the past. And now, vinyl is making a small, renaissance-like come back.

2. When DVD (video) became readily available to the public it was believed that video tape (VHS) would become obsolete within a short time, but that was not the case. Here we are over 12 years past the time when DVD was introduced and many movies are still available on video cassette. The publics unwillingness to completely give up on VHS is evident by the fact that you can so easily purchase a DVD/VHS combo player/recorder for your home.

<<EDIT>> I looked up info for clarification and I was wrong about the DVD timeline… it's been almost exactly 10 years (not 12) since DVD was introduced to America (not sure about globally). But VHS is not quite dead yet, even though it is on its way out <<END EDIT>>

Gamers… especially console gamers… are still very ingrained in and fond of "the purchase". By that I mean that it is part of the gaming pleasure to go to the local EB Games and pick up your pre-ordered copy of Halo 37. PC gamers aren't quite so stuck in that way of life since there is so little shelf space alloted to PC games in most stores, but we still like to order our games online and get excited when the box gets here.

It's part of retaining a bit of your childhood. Let's face it… when we buy a new game, we're getting a new 'toy', and we can't wait to look at it, open it, read about it, and play with it. A big part of that joy… the visual and tactile sensations… will be gone if digital distribution ever becomes the only way to purchase a game.

It's almost a sociological study in a way. None of us know when or if it will happen. It could be (like your estimation) in 10 years… or it could very well take 20 or 30 years before physical distribution is completely gone.

I personally don't believe it will happen in my lifetime, assuming that I will live to be a ripe old age (I'm 40 now).

Just my thoughts.

May all your hits be crits!
Last edited by narpet; October 4th, 2007 at 20:43.
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