Originally Posted by Prime Junta
But I do think that Saakashvili overplayed his hand massively. Attacking Russia — even on territory that's technically yours — is a Bad Idea even if you're a great power, and it's an especially Bad Idea for a small country right on its border, with its superpower patron currently otherwise occupied (or, to be smartass about it, occupying).

I found this move particularly bizarre, since Georgia's military was supposed to be undergoing reforms in 2009/10, and it seems a bit weird to undergo any military actions, especially unprovoked, with a pre-reform army.

I mean, anyone who knew anything about Russian politics knew that this was bound to happen once Georgia turned into the friendly-democraticnation-next-door and started badmouthing Russia with help of its American partner. A lot of this was quite alright, as Russia has had an illegitimate foothold in Georgia for way too long, but that it'd lead to trouble in Abkhazia and North Ossetia should shock no one.

PJ's attitude is likely the right one. There are only guilty parties involved here. Georgia broke a truce to invade a region that has been de facto independent for more than a decade, and Russia retaliated with an obviously planned attack meant to cripple Georgia quick and dirty. There sure as hell aren't any good guys there, and considering what happened in 91-92, I'm not sure I would like what might happen if Russia withdraws.

Once again the IHT comes to the rescue with some real insight. They fall just short of saying it, but this looks to be a pretty humiliating experience for Georgia's "allies".

And count another one up for US politics.
The image of President George W. Bush smiling and chatting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia from the stands of the Beijing Olympics even as Russian aircraft were shelling Georgia outlines the reality of America's Russia policy. While America considers Georgia its strongest ally in the bloc of former Soviet countries, Washington needs Russia too much on big issues like Iran to risk it all to defend Georgia.

And State Department officials made it clear on Saturday that there was no chance the United States would intervene militarily.

Bush did use tough language, demanding that Russia stop bombing. And Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded that Russia "respect Georgia's territorial integrity."

I'm sure Russia will be really impressed by your demands, Condy, ill-researched and ill-thought-through though they may be.

I really do wonder what ol' Mikheil was thinking anyway. Was he hoping the Olympics would keep all eyes of Georgia and thus allow it and its allies to land a quick, ugly victory with little political repercussions? It looks like the opposite is true, the reduced media attention will mean less human interest from abroad, and thus make it easier for our governments not to help.

EDIT: looks like Georgia is retreating.

That's a relief.

Georgia is claiming massive casualties all at the hands of evil Russians. Russia is claiming attempted genocide from Georgian devils. Typical propaganda. Knowing these two countries, they probably both managed to get some blood on their hands in these few days.

Still, this comparison from BBC shows why this was always a bad idea:

GEORGIA
Total personnel: 26,900
Main battle tanks (T-72): 82
Armoured personnel carriers: 139
Combat aircraft (Su-25): Seven
Heavy artillery pieces (including Grad rocket launchers): 95
RUSSIA
Total personnel: 641,000
Main battle tanks (various): 6,717
Armoured personnel carriers: 6,388
Combat aircraft (various): 1,206
Heavy artillery pieces (various): 7,550