Well, somehow I'm pretty sure our opinions on Gothic 3 differ :-) But Lionheart and Oblivion are good examples of the general rule I was talking about. Every justified criticism I can remember which had been stated before the games' releases turned out to be true. I don't see how Fallout 3 will suddenly become an exception.

And as for your second statement - it depends on the person who has "actually played" the game. Just look at Oblivion boards and legions of people who have "actually played" the game and claim it is a great RPG because you can roleplay someone taking a nap after eating a meal. I don't see such opinions being far superior to the valid criticisms raised about the game by people who have never played it.