Expectations for President Obama

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Prime Junta

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There were two opposing viewpoints in NY Times recently about what to expect -- or hope -- from President Obama over the next four years.

Paul Krugman argued forcefully for tacking hard left -- universal health care, massive economic stimulus, working towards a state of permanent dominance for the Democratic party and its agenda.

David Brooks argued eloquently for a genuinely bipartisan administration -- prominent Republicans in important positions, an energy-independence (aka green energy) investment program, bottom-up reform, that sort of thing.

Interestingly, both of these people agreed about the big picture. Massive fiscal stimulus is needed. The Federal government will be running a deficit of $1T (Krugman) to $1.5T (Brooks) before you're out of the hole.

Personally, I found Brooks's vision more appealing. One structural problem with the American polity is polarization. Permanent majorities don't exist, and an extremely polarized polity just leads to wild lurches from one side to the other with no long-term continuity. To address that, the center must assert itself, across party lines.

Here's how I would grade President Obama in 2012, based on what we know now -- which, of course, will almost certainly not include the really important stuff that will go down by then. My benchmarks are primarily economic, simply because those are reasonably unambiguous, easily measurable criteria. Failing to meet the zero-point benchmark gives the Prez -1 point.

0 points is the minimal passing grade -- it may not be easy, but it's absolutely necessary.
1 point is the equivalent of B- performance -- a good, solid result.
2 points is the equivalent of A+ performance -- a historic success, almost but not quite unimaginable.

If Obama manages a positive score overall, IMO he deserves re-election. A negative score means he should probably be thrown out, and zero means that he should lose if the Republicans manage to field someone with more than two functioning brain cells (Bobby Jindal?)

(1) The economy:
0 points: Unemployment trending down, growth at 3.5% or more for starting in Q3/2011.
1 point: As above, starting from Q1/2011. Federal budget deficit trending down in the 2012 budget.
2 points: As above, but starting in Q1/2010 or before.

(2) Iraq and the Middle East:
0 points: Cost of the Iraq war in the Federal budget for 2011 $40B or less. Political/military status quo in the region more or less what it's now.
1 point: As above, with Iraq reasonably stable (by Middle Eastern standards) and non-hostile, an Israeli-Syrian peace accord in place, and Israelis and Palestinians doing more talking than shooting.
2 points: A comprehensive Middle Eastern peace accord: Israel and Palestine separate countries with diplomatic relations, Israel and Syria at peace, Syria and Lebanon with normal relations, Hezbollah's armed wing subsumed into the Lebanese military, Iraq stable and with good relations with its neighbors, Iran abandoned its ambitions for nuclear weapons and with normalized relations with Europe and the US.

(3) Afghanistan and Pakistan:
0 points: Cost of the Afghanistan war in the Federal budget for 2011 $40B or less. Pakistan not controlled by the Taliban.
1 point: As above, but Afghanistan not either in a state of anarchy or controlled by the Taliban.
2 points: There is no realistic 2-point scenario here that I can think of. Afghanistan isn't called the Graveyard of Empires for nothing.

There are a lot of other areas we could look at, but IMO they're subsidiary -- if President Obama and his merry men are able to tackle these, it means they're probably doing most things right in most other areas as well.
 
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Making as many as possible feeling responsible for their country might be an important cause. This is one of the few places in which I would promote more nationalism without chauvinism. The US population really need to unite and make it unamerican to point fingers and suggest who's not a "real" American.
 
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So they need to get nationalist to avoid nationalism, eh, JemyM?

Since a certain guy, when denouncing Republican policy since Reagan, insisted that economic downturns are 2 year events that nearly solve themselves barring collosal stupidity (it's been a couple months, so I hope I won't have to locate the posts from that discussion), you're handing Saint Barack a "gimme" on the economy. That's even if we ignore that you declared that Dubya put us in this recession no less than 2 quarters ago, even though the numbers aren't available yet. By that start date, Saint Barack is nearly half way to recovery before he even takes the oath of office. The gigantic handouts are already underway, meaning the pump will already be primed before anyone calls him Mr. President. The only way he doesn't get a +2 on your scale is if he's a complete putz.

Criteria 2 seems pretty fair.

They've already tipped their hand on criteria 3. The plan is to build the Afghan army to 200,000 heads and let them fight their own people. Keeps our costs down, eases the fundamentalist pressures in Pakistan, but really does nothing for Afghanistan beyond promote civil war that is unlikely to net us Osama on a platter.

So, barring utter stupidity (not a safe assumption in my book, but certainly guaranteed in yours), Saint Barack is sitting at +3 if he does nothing. Pretty soft grading scale, if you ask me.
 
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One structural problem with the American polity is polarization. Permanent majorities don't exist, and an extremely polarized polity just leads to wild lurches from one side to the other with no long-term continuity. To address that, the center must assert itself, across party lines.

That's true. When there's extreme and long-term polarization, there's no chance of continuity. But I don't think that's much a case of USA as fundamentals of both parties are the same in general. Both political parties (rather then political platforms) are based on (in the words of magerette :) ) maintaining personal liberties, with prosperity based on the sanctity of the fruits of one's labor and one's private property and that' s the most important I believe. So I would say that only some accents are different (liberal vs conservative, maybe there are some minor discrepancies in foreign policy or in an extent of role of state but nothing diametrically different). But that's still totally different in comparison with my homeland where society is nowadays polarized 50% : 50 % where one half of people (the right-thinking part) wants to bear the responsibility of their lives for themselves and the other part doesn't want. In this case there's no possibility for any continuity at all.. and result is obvious: There will never be "ANYTHING" in Czech republic :( (edit: except poverty...)

But maybe the situation has been changing in America as well as these elections showed (in relation to demographic and economical changes)

................. and zero means that he should lose if the Republicans manage to field someone with more than two functioning brain cells (Bobby Jindal?)

I can't agree with you with this one. It is not so important to have a brilliant intellect (we have advisors when necessary) as to do right decisions, to deeply know and feel what is right and what is wrong and act according to this knowing. Like Reagan did and like Bush did I believe. In the words of Ari Fleischer:

In the age of terrorism, the one thing we have to fear more than anything is moral relativism.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/opinion/02bush.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
 
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And to initial question:

I expect US President Obama to do right-wing politics, to be unyielding against natural enemies of western world and civilization values, to build US radar base in Czech Republic to set us free finally from Russian sphere of interest despite being in NATO and EU. And I expect him (and his finance secretary/minister) not to use 700 billion bailout money to pay or otherwise cover people' mortgages because it would only deepen current financial crisis (into the future). Yes I care about it because we have global economy and in particular a financial system virtually without barriers ...
 
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You're already out of the Russian sphere of influence; don't worry about that. I do understand your concerns, though -- 50 years of occupation will do that.

However, I don't see what it would gain you to actually go out of your way to *annoy* Russia either.

Who do you consider the natural enemies of the Western world and civilization, by the way?
 
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Since a certain guy, when denouncing Republican policy since Reagan, insisted that economic downturns are 2 year events that nearly solve themselves barring collosal stupidity (it's been a couple months, so I hope I won't have to locate the posts from that discussion), you're handing Saint Barack a "gimme" on the economy.

Um, dte? I've been an ardent and consistent advocate of Keynesian economic policy here, so I would be very interested in hearing where you got the impression that I believe that economic downturns solve themselves.

The two-year recession is currently the *best case* scenario. The default scenario is a 10-year Japanese-style "lost decade," and it will take both skill and determination to avoid that. If you like, I can dig up quotes of yours truly recently saying just that... in fact, I sketched out the scenarios in considerable detail a while back, with the "quick recovery and golden decade" one seen as unlikely but barely possible.

That's even if we ignore that you declared that Dubya put us in this recession no less than 2 quarters ago, even though the numbers aren't available yet. By that start date, Saint Barack is nearly half way to recovery before he even takes the oath of office. The gigantic handouts are already underway, meaning the pump will already be primed before anyone calls him Mr. President. The only way he doesn't get a +2 on your scale is if he's a complete putz.

That would be the case if this were a regular cyclical recession, but it isn't: it's a fundamental correction of long-standing imbalances in your economy, such as the trade deficit, the debt crisis, the housing price situation, the distortions caused by the dollar's unique status in world trade, and the problems caused by the crazy income differentials that have appeared over the past few decades.

This one won't fix itself if everyone just sits on their hands -- and I challenge you to show where or when I've claimed that it will.

So, barring utter stupidity (not a safe assumption in my book, but certainly guaranteed in yours), Saint Barack is sitting at +3 if he does nothing. Pretty soft grading scale, if you ask me.

Read it again -- those default passing grades were zeroes, not +1's, and none of them are easy.
 
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To your question: Well, maybe I exaggerated a little bit. I had in mind especially militant islam which I consider to be a big threat (and maybe even islam itself - with its concept of umma). Just look at history. The cold war or 20th century was just a small switch in history and now the conlict of civilizations (western and middle-east) is back. Whether we like it or not. Look at islamic imigrants in Europe. I don't have anything against muslims as people but the fact is that their values are totally different than ours, they don't usually blend into society where they come, they don't become its part and instead they live in their closed communities and if time comes, they won't stand on our side.

edit: and then I meant Russia, from obvious reasons, although Russia is nowadays more a political enemy (sometimes not) than "natural enemy" or "ideological enemy". Or maybe China etc. But the answer here would have to be obviously more complex....
 
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To your question: Well, maybe I exaggerated a little bit. I had in mind especially militant islam which I consider to be a big threat (and maybe even islam itself - with its concept of umma). Just look at history. The cold war or 20th century was just a small switch in history and now the conlict of civilizations (western and middle-east) is back. Whether we like it or not. Look at islamic imigrants in Europe. I don't have anything against muslims as people but the fact is that their values are totally different than ours, they don't usually blend into society where they come, they don't become its part and instead they live in their closed communities and if time comes, they won't stand on our side.

How many Muslims do you know, out of curiosity?

edit: and then I meant Russia, from obvious reasons, although Russia is nowadays more a political enemy (sometimes not) than "natural enemy" or "ideological enemy". Or maybe China etc. But the answer here would have to be obviously more complex....

Enemies everywhere!

Seriously, though -- you're being rather silly IMO. Russians, Chinese, and Muslims are just people, not strange aliens out to eat our lunches. You should get to know a few; you'll be less frightened of them.
 
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Well from experience so far we've seen him be so against the war in Iraq that he was against he troop surge, he missed the boat when the stock market collapsed a few weeks ago, and a willingness to ignore Black Liberation Theology. But he's got an incredible machine (as well as personal popularity and speaking ability) that's able to play spin doctor for him.

He doesn't seem to offer much vision but seems ride the wave. I expect at 3am he'll miss a few calls, at least for awhile.

The last time there was a super-majority was with Clinton for the first two years and inexperience and attempt to juggle (his wife's) left wing ideology cost the Democrats congress for the first time in 40 years.

If you see a push to the hard left again, and I'm expecting that, it could result in the same sort of backlash and the public restoring checks and balances.

However, each candidate is different and Barack is obviously the most different ever. With my finger to the wind instead of words like "backlash" I am hearing things like "another Camelot". So far the largest criticisms he's getting is not at him but at the press for giving him a "free ride".
 
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So they need to get nationalist to avoid nationalism, eh, JemyM?

Nationalism has a function and it is to unite a people living within the same geographical area that would otherwise be divided into smaller subgroups that really need to work together. An example of too much nationalism is nazi germany. An example of too little nationalism is jugoslavia.
 
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In the words of Ari Fleischer:

In the age of terrorism, the one thing we have to fear more than anything is moral relativism.

Yes, god forbid we expect more of ourselves or try to understand what motivates the other side.
 
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Since a certain guy, when denouncing Republican policy since Reagan, insisted that economic downturns are 2 year events that nearly solve themselves barring collosal stupidity (it's been a couple months, so I hope I won't have to locate the posts from that discussion), you're handing Saint Barack a "gimme" on the economy.

Time will tell dte. Vast majority of economic reviews that I have read so far are of an opinion that currect crisis if different from the usual bubbles and what was good for goose is not good for this gander.
 
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Title: "Expectations for President Obama"
Answer: "Too high"

While I hoped Obama would win, I do not consider it likely that he's going to perform any miracles. If he can improve the situation in Iraq, the general economy of the US, and the relationship between the US and Europe, I'm fairly happy.

To be perfectly honest, I very much doubt he'll actually complete four years in the White House. In fact, he might not even become President. There are so many who wants to see him dead, more than one is bound to make an attempt. I'm not just talking about racists - there are quite a few in the US that honestly thinks Obama is a terrorist (redicilous, I know). Also, there are a lot of so-called patriots that feel the nation is not secure under Obamas rule, and they have to get rid of him in order to save democracy.

Crazy ideas, of course, but ideas that might lead to an assassination. Like I said, if he can complete his four years, and improve certain things (mentioned above), I'll be more than happy. Hopefully, if he does a good job, he might even be re-elected.
 
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How many Muslims do you know, out of curiosity?

Muslims are just people, not strange aliens out to eat our lunches. You should get to know a few; you'll be less frightened of them

Personally virtually no one . But it doesn't change a thing because I consider islam as religion to be a threat because of its inherent expansion and values.

I recommend you to read something about ummah, madrasas and so on and not to be fooled by appealing ideas of multiculturality.

Yes, they are people like us and I don't have anything against them as people but their religion driven society and rules of behaviour are something so incompatible with our way of life that islam is a threat. Always was and always will be. Especially militant and orthodox one.

Enemies everywhere!

Not everywhere. Only somewhere. And there we must be preemptive and that's what Bush is doing and that's why he has my support and one must understand that bees fly when you poke their nest (or whatever idiom is right in English).

A rhetorical support of human rights and freedoms is nice but is useless when is teethless and ineffective against, yes, enemies of our way of life and values...

I think you would have spoken differently if your land had experienced 40 years of communistic unfreedom. Because freedom is very easy to lose but very hard to regain. And that's at the same time my answer to your reaction that we are already out of Russian sphere of influence. Out of influence maybe but not out of interest.

Chinese - I would rather consider them to be our partners than (future and potential) enemies but the truth is that basics of their society could be described as "interests of whole (social unit) are more than interests of individuals". So, again, fundamental difference in comparison with western world.


Seriously, though -- you're being rather silly IMO
Please feel free to criticise my opinions or my excessive fears (as you would maybe say) but, please, leave myself out of it . I don't do it either...
 
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Personally virtually no one . But it doesn't change a thing because I consider islam as religion to be a threat because of its inherent expansion and values.

Translation: "I don't know jack about them, and am talking out of my ass. Also, brown people scare me."

I recommend you to read something about ummah, madrasas and so on and not to be fooled by appealing ideas of multiculturality.

Friend, my wife is an Arab. While she's a Christian, most of her friends are Muslims. One of my colleagues is a Muslim. I've been interested and more or less actively reading up on comparative religion for the past twenty years. The history and practice of Islam is a particular topic of interest of mine. I've read the Qur'an in several different translations, and am familiar with the major commentators like Tabari and Ibn Arabi. So don't you tell me to read something about the umma, madrassas, or what not. *You* go meet a couple of real, live Muslims and see what they're like.

Yes, they are people like us and I don't have anything against them but their relegion driven society and rules of behaviour are something so incompatible with our way of life that islam is a threat. Always was and always will be. Especially militant and orthodox one.

Militancy and orthodoxy is always a threat -- whether it's Islamic, Christian, Communist -- or jingoistic nationalism, such as what you're spouting. You're much more of a threat to our civilization than your average Muslim.

Not everywhere. Only somewhere. And there we must be preemptive and that's what Bush is doing and that's why he has my support and one must understand that bees fly when you poke their nest (or whatever idiom is right in English).

A rhetorical support of human rights and freedoms is nice but is useless when is teethless and ineffective against, yes, enemies of our way of life and values...

I think you would have spoken differently if your land had experienced 40 years of communistic unfreedom. Because freedom is very easy to lose but very hard to regain. And that's at the same time my answer to your reaction that we are already out of Russian sphere of influence. Out of influence maybe but not out of interest.

And I think *you* would have spoken differently if you actually knew what the hell you're talking about.

Still, it's nice to have you on board, to show that the Old Continent has its supply of crypto-fascists.

Please feel free to criticise my opinions or my excessive fears (as you would maybe say) but, please, leave myself out of it . I don't do it either...

I call 'em as I see 'em, and you're talking straight Czechified Mein Kampf. Don't try to hide behind your "history of oppression" (that ended, what, twenty years ago); it doesn't wash.

I know a couple of Slovaks, by the way. If you're a typical Czech, I'm starting to understand what they go on about after a few beers.
 
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Militancy and orthodoxy is always a threat -- whether it's Islamic, Christian, Communist -- or jingoistic nationalism, such as what you're spouting. You're much more of a threat to our civilization than your average Muslim.

The core scripture in these movements are radical, militant and orthodox. Nationalism have no scripture. Nationalism do not need to be exclusive or chauvinistic. Nationalism becomes what you make out of it.
 
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The core scripture in these movements are radical, militant and orthodox. Nationalism have no scripture. Nationalism do not need to be exclusive or chauvinistic. Nationalism becomes what you make out of it.

Hence the jingoistic nationalism ;)
We don't want to fight
but by jingo if we do
we've got the ships
we've got the men
and we've got the money too
 
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Prime Junta:

Let me add some final words to this topic.

I'm writing it for the third time and I hope for the final time. I don't have anything againsts (ordinary) muslims as people (I criticise - and I don't know even if "criticise" is a right word) only islam as religion, institution, rules of conduct and islamic fundamentalists - terrorists). My co-worker's friend is muslim, an Egyptian doctor and from what I've heard about him, he's perfectly ok. He even has a Czech wife (I guess she's an non-believer, I mean atheist). But I've met him only once (on the stairs :) ), that's why I wrote I din't know any muslim personally, I mean really personally. But I know his wife. She was my English teacher ten years ago (world is small).

So your "translations" are far from being necessary and they are wrong.

The imporant issue which eludes you, I think, is that multicultarility (when the systems are incompatible or conflicting) is possible or with the hope to endure (to last) in the long term only in a small measure - and that's the case of your personal experience. But in the larger measures, there's either freedom (of speech etc.... - for example to discuss freely on these boards) or sharia at the end. Nothing in between. You choose. So it is not about some kind of nationalism ar perhaps "crypto-fascism" but about self-preservation.

So maybe I am too critical, too fearful about islam (as system) but maybe it is *you* who is too idealistic.

In fine: I really think it's not necessary to insult each other for different opinions or one would say, for different worldviews, rather get used to it.

edit: by the way, does anybody know how one would say properly in English the Edmund Burke's quotation which I would translate from Czech just like that: "Freedom elevates a human spirit". I don't know original English version and I can't google it either. Thanks in advance.
 
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