Who will win the 2012 US Presidential Election?

And who will be the official Republican candidate? Apparently, former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney is the current front-runner in the race, and has won the support of former candidate John McCain. Is it going to be Obama vs. Romney in November? Will Obama be able to retain his position after four years of doing nothing but passing dubious legislation, ignoring America's traditional allies, fearing to challenge America's traditional foes, and receiving rewards for accomplishments that never happened? Four years ago Obama received the support of over 80% Black voters, will Black Americans vote along racial lines the second time as well?

Speculate!!!

Are you saying Kim Kardashian or Lindsay Lohan are not in the running?

You US'ers need to up your game!

Glyphwright said:

Four years ago Obama received the support of over 80% Black voters, will Black Americans vote along racial lines the second time as well?

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Actually, I believe it was over 95%, and yes, most will vote for Obama again no matter what.

Bachmann would have been good for a few laughs, so it's a shame she is gone.

Myrthos said:

Bachmann would have been good for a few laughs, so it's a shame she is gone.

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Oh Yeah!

Not trying to be a prick, but she makes you wonder about the status of american politics with just the fact that she even was a runner upp.

Funny though, and scary.

Newt Gingricht is another horror, the person that started thrench warfare and obstruction in US politics.

US influence is waning but is still affecting the rest of the world in a way that no other country does, thus I must follow the election campaigns.

C

Interesting article comparing the 2008 GOP primary and the 2012 one:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/04/opinion/welch-gop-iowa/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

In the 2008 Republican Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney received 30,021 votes, 25% of the total, good for second place against a socially conservative evangelical (Mike Huckabee), who within seven weeks would become enough of a nonfactor in the presidential race that he appeared on "Saturday Night Live" mocking his own electability.
In the 2012 caucuses, after four more years of introducing himself to a recession- and Washington-weary America, Romney received 30,015 votes, 25% of the total, good for a razor-thin, eight-vote win over a socially conservative Catholic (Rick Santorum), who has a comparatively weak national campaign organization outside the early-primary states.
Yet Iowa arguably derailed Romney in 2008 while shoring up his front-runner status this time around. GOP politics have become so fluid, so unpredictable, so bizarre, that the main point of the game is more about survival than winning.

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As for who will win, its hard to say with certainly what will happen, but I will say this:

If the GOP nominates someone that isn't fringe (like Paul), they have a very good chance of beating Obama. Obama has already lost a lot of the swing voters he gained in 2008, so for that reason alone, 2012 will be closer. If we have a major downturn in the stock market, combined with steady or increasing unemployment, I think that will turn the favor to the GOP (again with the non-fringe caveat). One of the main reasons that Obama's victory in '08 went from a slim margin to basically a landslide was the financial meltdown that came to a head that September. I think we're going to see another one this year.

Crilloan said:

Newt Gingricht is another horror, the person that started thrench warfare and obstruction in US politics

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Newt has many negatives, but this is not one of them. Newt worked very well with Clinton when he was Speaker of the House.

Glyphwright said:

And who will be the official Republican candidate? Apparently, former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney is the current front-runner in the race, and has won the support of former candidate John McCain. Is it going to be Obama vs. Romney in November?

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Possible Romney does have a bit of style, but I think some of his opinions are off base for his normal targets.

Will Obama be able to retain his position after four years of doing nothing but passing dubious legislation,

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Can't dispute this but will qualify with, the last 2 years the republicans have been fillibustering everything that is possible to fillibuster. To the point where when they were about to have a hearing at one point in congress, the Speaker basically called the hearing immediately after the start.

ignoring America's traditional allies,

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The Germans?

fearing to challenge America's traditional foes,

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Which ones, the British, or The Russians?

and receiving rewards for accomplishments that never happened? Four years ago Obama received the support of over 80% Black voters, will Black Americans vote along racial lines the second time as well?

Speculate!!!

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Quite probably, because no black man I know in my city of roughly I don't fucking know how many anymore, honestly it seems like half our population is illegals. so fuck putting a number on it(LA), wants to support a cracka over brutha.

My prediction, 1 more term of Obama, and then a hardline female president from the republicans, who will run as the reform party essentially. Feeding off the sense of distaste that the Obama era left, and running on the progressiveness of the female candidate. Then the Republicans will go through the troubles of getting nothing done, because the Dems are filibustering them.

All the better to keep the masses focused on perceived conflict and doing nothing to stop the actual conflict.

The shameful inability of the republicans to find a decent candidate has opened the door for Obama to possibly sneak thru. Even though Obama has been the worst president since Carter based on his few actual results mostly being negative, he'll still be able to squeeze some more mileage out of "Not Bush" and rehashing his class warfare schtick. Had we put up anyone even remotely resembling a viable candidate (damn you, Mitch, damn you!) 2012 should have been a walkover but now I'm expecting a real nailbiter. Instead of campaigning on our good ideas, we're going to be reduced to running a "Not Obama" line.

I imagine Ron Paul or Huntsman would have had the best chance of beating Obama in the general, but it will end up being a three way race between Obama, Romney and whoever "Americans Elect" nominates.

Obama will win his second term.

Neither Paul not Huntsman would stand a chance against Obama. They are way too fringe. I like Paul in Congress because he keeps the rest of them slightly more honest, but many of his ideas are so bad, I'd actually go and vote for Obama in the general election over him.

blatantninja said:

Neither Paul not Huntsman would stand a chance against Obama. They are way too fringe. I like Paul in Congress because he keeps the rest of them slightly more honest, but many of his ideas are so bad, I'd actually go and vote for Obama in the general election over him.

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Huntsman is probably the most centrist of all the GOP candidates.

As for Paul, yes, he is what you might call a Tin Foil Hat Republican as opposed to a Sams Club Republican, but I think there are enough Tea Party crazies and conspiracy theorists out there that he actually stands a chance. Personally I'm a fan of some of his foreign policy and anti-war sentiments but I believe his bizarre notions about the gold standard and dissolving the Fed could completely screw up the country and I'm glad he won't win the nomination.

Romney seemed to be the strongest candidate nine months ago, but despite his overflowing pockets and excellent team, for some reason people are looking for any possible excuse not to vote for him. In Iowa he had well-oiled organization, an advertising budget that dwarfed all the other candidates, polished presentation of his message, etc., and he only won by eight votes! Against the practically M.I.A. Rick Santorum who spent something like 76 cents per vote compared to Romney's $43 per vote.

CountChocula said:

Huntsman is probably the most centrist of all the GOP candidates.

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I confused him with the guy that announced he was seeking the Libertarian nomination.

As for Paul, yes, he is what you might call a Tin Foil Hat Republican as opposed to a Sams Club Republican, but I think there are enough Tea Party crazies and conspiracy theorists out there that he actually stands a chance. Personally I'm a fan of some of his foreign policy and anti-war sentiments but I believe his bizarre notions about the gold standard and dissolving the Fed could completely screw up the country and I'm glad he won't win the nomination.

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I have a similar view of him. I'm not sure the Tea Party is strong enough to affect the vote that much though.

Romney seemed to be the strongest candidate nine months ago, but despite his overflowing pockets and excellent team, for some reason people are looking for any possible excuse not to vote for him.

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He's Mormon, a Masshole, and looks like a pretty boy. Which should all be irrelevant, but the mob is fickle.

Can't agree more about Ron Paul BN. It is amazing that one person can be so sensible and so wacko at the same time! Santorum or Perry would be the great candidates to gauge which way American public opinion is moving in the time of crisis.
Romney is boring. He is a guy who effortlessly bends to the right in primaries and will than bend right back to the center in general election. No fun at all

He's got the whole RomneyCare albatross hanging around his neck. Given the party line on ObamaCare, anything vaguely associated with it (let alone being a precursor of sorts) is going to be tremendously poisonous.

CountChocula said:

Huntsman is probably the most centrist of all the GOP candidates.

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This year that makes him a fringe candidate.

It's really sad as he's the only reasonable one. He's been talking about the growing anti-intellectualism in the Republican party for instance which is probably why he is polling so low amongst them.

zahratustra said:

Can't agree more about Ron Paul BN. It is amazing that one person can be so sensible and so wacko at the same time!

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Yeah. Some of his ideas are great and others are just W T F.

I love Ron Paul's fiscal policies. But his extreme isolationism scares me. Given a choice between Romney and Obama, I likely won't vote. There, I said it. Not that it matters anyway, living in a 'blue' state.

The limited two party system is almost as bad as the Electoral College. They both sustain a gluttonous status quo. In an age of computers, we deserve more options.

Drithius said:

I love Ron Paul's fiscal policies. But his extreme isolationism scares me. Given a choice between Romney and Obama, I likely won't vote. There, I said it. Not that it matters anyway, living in a 'blue' state.

The limited two party system is almost as bad as the Electoral College. They both sustain a gluttonous status quo. In an age of computers, we deserve more options.

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Vote for a 3rd party. In addition to funding, access to debates and such are often given out based on previous year results. The only way a viable 3rd part is going to come out is if they get enough exposure, even in losing, in previous elections.

You are getting plenty of options, Drithius, an entire 5 candidates with differing political views and agendas versus the incumbent president and each other. Think of the primaries as the first round of presidential elections.