China Sees U.S. as Competitor and Declining Power

zahratustra · April 2, 2012

"The senior leadership of the Chinese government increasingly views the competition between the United States and China as a zero-sum game, with China the likely long-range winner if the American economy and domestic political system continue to stumble, according to an influential Chinese policy analyst. China views the United States as a declining power, but at the same time believes that Washington is trying to fight back to undermine, and even disrupt, the economic and military growth that point to China’s becoming the world’s most powerful country..."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/w...-rare-glimpse-of-us-china-frictions.html?_r=1

Couchpotato · April 2, 2012

Yes bow to your Chinese overlords. Keep outsourcing jobs and borrowing billions. Instead of a military war its a war of economics. There are quite a few books and articles on this topic available.

blatantninja · April 2, 2012

China has enough of their own issues that I'm not too concerned. Between their real estate bubble (that vastly dwarfs what the US had) and their rising wages, the era of their manufacturing dominance is steamrolling to a bad end.

Couchpotato · April 2, 2012

blatantninja said:
China has enough of their own issues that I'm not too concerned. Between their real estate bubble (that vastly dwarfs what the US had) and their rising wages, the era of their manufacturing dominance is steamrolling to a bad end.

Keep telling yourself that. This song here basically sums up how the world views us.

You brought us the a-bomb in so many ways
Endorsed by God and The Book
So God loves a war monger?
Hey Mr. Blix: forget Iraq and the time it took
'Cause I know just where to look

"Could we have a vote please?"

They came with a song - America
They wouldn't stay long - America
We are America
God bless America
God bless America and Capitol Hill
'Cause no one else will

So now you are scared
The Arabs will kill for their god
Like you do for yours?
Protect your obesity with your life man
Hey - Angry God or Diet Coke?
Who cares it's all a joke

"Heil homo pecuniae"

Saving us yet another time
Earning a buck on every dime
Sick of America
Sick of America
Sick of America and Capitol Hill
Moving in for the next kill

Did you say "I love you"?

A simpler democracy
Where every flaw and failure is called a "Right"
A new form of freedom
Based on your income, your color, creed
And your choice of gun
But it provides great fun

"Dr. Phil or Oprah?"
"Letterman or Leno?"
"Idol or Big Brother?"
[From: http://www.elyrics.net/read/p/pain-of-salvation-lyrics/america-lyrics.html]

(we'll be back after this short break)

It could have been good America
It could have been great America
Land of the brave and free
Welcoming you and me
But this Brave New World is not as new anymore
Each day a new store
Each year a new war
While chosen whites rule the poor

…in America

Oh, America
Don't you walk out on me?
Just wait a second now
Please hear me now
Oh… I'll do my best to love you
Oh yes I will
I know you're out there
C'mon
Raise your voices
Don't let them ruin your reputation
Don't let them wreck your constitution
Not out of fear
Not out of greed

But you had a good run America
Your day in the sun America
Hello British Empire
Hello Roman Empire
Hello Soviet
There is a new kid in town
Joining the gone down
Finding what you found
Treading your worn - worn down ground

Rise to your former glory
Be brave and warm
Oh America

If I say I love you
If I say I love you
If I say I love you
Dare you love me too?

Remember every country /empire/republic fades if the government grows week. History has proven that.

zahratustra · April 2, 2012

blatantninja said:
China has enough of their own issues that I'm not too concerned. Between their real estate bubble (that vastly dwarfs what the US had) and their rising wages, the era of their manufacturing dominance is steamrolling to a bad end.

Errrr yes, but you have missed the "long range" bit. Chinese are actually quite skillful in the art of patience. They simply sit back and let you carry on with what you are doing.

Gorath · April 3, 2012

zahratustra said:
Errrr yes, but you have missed the "long range" bit. Chinese are actually quite skillful in the art of patience. They simply sit back and let you carry on with what you are doing.

If you wait at the river long enough you'll see your enemies' dead bodies float past you.

(Does anybody have the correct wording? I only know the German original.

)

dteowner · April 3, 2012

We've certainly got problems, but y'all are letting those green-tinted glasses affect your judgment. You might remember the dire prophesies 3 decades ago that Mexico was going to overtake us due to all the outsourcing. You might remember the dire prophesies 2 decades ago that Japan would soon own us. You might remember the dire prophesies a few years ago that India would steamroll us any day. Now you've got dire prophesies that China will finally knock us off our perch.

At least y'all haven't had the temerity to claim you'd be able to do your own dirty work.

Couchpotato · April 3, 2012

dteowner said:
We've certainly got problems, but y'all are letting those green-tinted glasses affect your judgment. You might remember the dire prophesies 3 decades ago that Mexico was going to overtake us due to all the outsourcing. You might remember the dire prophesies 2 decades ago that Japan would soon own us. You might remember the dire prophesies a few years ago that India would steamroll us any day. Now you've got dire prophesies that China will finally knock us off our perch.

At least y'all haven't had the temerity to claim you'd be able to do your own dirty work.

Not really I just don't put my head in the ground and pretend everything will be okay. Like the vast majority do. No wonder this generation is called the me generation.

dteowner · April 3, 2012

Couchpotato said:
Remember every country /empire/republic fades if the government grows week. History has proven that.

That's funny. Let's consider just what history has proven, shall we? Stalin- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Communist Russia- strong central government- how'd that pan out? North Korea- strong central government- how's that looking these days? Numerous European monarchies- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Colonel Quack's Libya- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Castro's Cuba- strong central government- how's that working out?

Yeah, clearly history proves your statement. Or not.

Couchpotato · April 3, 2012

dteowner said:
That's funny. Let's consider just what history has proven, shall we? Stalin- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Communist Russia- strong central government- how'd that pan out? North Korea- strong central government- how's that looking these days? Numerous European monarchies- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Colonel Quack's Libya- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Castro's Cuba- strong central government- how's that working out?

Yeah, clearly history proves your statement. Or not.

All I see is a corrupt government so divided it cant get anything done. Maybe something better or worse will replace what we know and have now.

Most governments will fall or evolve into something else. Damn I hate putting my thoughts into words . They always come out wrong.

dteowner · April 3, 2012

Couchpotato said:
Not really I just don't put my head in the ground and pretend everything will be okay. Like the vast majority do. No wonder this generation is called the me generation.

I believe you misunderstand, actually. Imagine that. I'm completely with you in that I'm expecting the US to go down the toilet at some point in the not-so-distant future. The difference is that I fully expect it to be an implosion, rather than actually getting beat by China or any other nation. To borrow a phrase that's appropriate for theme if not for the specifics, "When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer."

dteowner · April 3, 2012

Couchpotato said:
Remember every country /empire/republic fades if the government grows week. History has proven that.

Couchpotato said:
You can see what you want to see. Every government will fall at some point. You just don't have the vision to see it. Even those petty little despots will fall they always do.

You're going to have to help me out here. You make a statement. When it's proven questionable at best, you walk back your own statement and conclude that I lack vision. Is this enlightened logic at work here?

Couchpotato · April 3, 2012

dteowner said:
I believe you misunderstand, actually. Imagine that. I'm completely with you in that I'm expecting the US to go down the toilet at some point in the not-so-distant future. The difference is that I fully expect it to be an implosion, rather than actually getting beat by China or any other nation. To borrow a phrase that's appropriate for theme if not for the specifics, "When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer."

I was making a generalization of people. Mention world politics and government problems and they just ignore them. I'm waiting for the huge wake up call.

dteowner said:
You're going to have to help me out here. You make a statement. When it's proven questionable at best, you walk back your own statement and conclude that I lack vision. Is this enlightened logic at work here?

Experts have seen and predicted things that are happening. Look at the economic collapse it was predicted but was laughed and ridiculed at by others.

All the data and signs point to more trouble but yet everyone puts there head in the ground and ignores the signs.

Reminds me of the- You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink phrase.

GothicGothicness · April 3, 2012

Well, I would say we are going towards a situation where we have several powerful players, instead of one. Japan did fall, but they are still in a powerful 3rd or 4th position depending on how you count and is still a power to count on.

If you count the eurozone they're still number 1 or 2 in terms of economy power......

South America is also rising fast. So you'll probably have North America, South America, Asia, and Europe as major powers.

Unlike before when you had USA, USA and USA and a little bit of UK/France/Germany/Japan.

Alrik Fassbauer · April 3, 2012

dteowner said:
That's funny. Let's consider just what history has proven, shall we? Stalin- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Communist Russia- strong central government- how'd that pan out? North Korea- strong central government- how's that looking these days? Numerous European monarchies- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Colonel Quack's Libya- strong central government- how'd that pan out? Castro's Cuba- strong central government- how's that working out?

I know this mechanism from science : When I was at university, a Prof told us that Wegener's theory of the "continental drift" was NOT widely accepted until its critics literally died out.

Couchpotato said:
Experts have seen and predicted things that are happening. Look at the economic collapse it was predicted but was laughed and ridiculed at by others.

Yes, that happens. See Galileo Galilei for that, or Giordano Bruno.
It's just sad.

JemyM · April 3, 2012

dteowner said:
The difference is that I fully expect it to be an implosion, rather than actually getting beat by China or any other nation.

I agree. What worries me is how awful that implosion will be. The US is currently a divided nation with two distinct ideas about what the nation is supposed to be, two alternate newschannels, two alternate cultures and a lot of fear for one another. The education system is bad, there is a great amount of poverty and a lot of anxiousness. Psychologically uncertainty leads to higher radicalism and higher polarization. Historically this is a cocktail for disaster. If most of a nation exist to the far sides of the spectrum instead of the center of the spectrum, events can happen very rapidly when neighbors turn on neighbors. It happened within just a few years in Bosnia. There are plenty of firearms around to become a civil war. Another possible route is that a radical leader is elected, most likely a fascist or nationalist (a far-leftie is unlikely in the US) who use military force to keep the nation together. From that point one possible route is the attack on other nations, either for resources or to express power or both. Either way the culture will turn sour, probably worsen the education system even further with further weakening as a result.

Western Europe took a central route and rejected both violence, fascism, nationalism and later communism after the 2nd World War. The US didn't have it's ideological war yet. The US continues to be a war culture who proclaim itself a "winner" in the 2nd World War and later the cold war, then took sides and rejected the left part of the spectrum finding a healthy balance between two extremes.

blatantninja · April 3, 2012

Couchpotato said:
Keep telling yourself that. This song here basically sums up how the world views us.

Remember every country /empire/republic fades if the government grows week. History has proven that.

There is no doubt that the US has issues that need to be addressed, but IF we collapse, its not going to be because China (or India for that matter) outproduced us. They are running into the same issues that landed us where we are.

The thing that the US has over those two though is that it has a much more adaptable system, hence giving us a better chance to continue our dominance. Whether we will or not is a different story, but the greatest threats we face are internal.

blatantninja · April 3, 2012

zahratustra said:
Errrr yes, but you have missed the "long range" bit. Chinese are actually quite skillful in the art of patience. They simply sit back and let you carry on with what you are doing.

That's fine but patience isn't going to solve the problems I listed, or the fact that due to policy and infanticide they have a gender unbalanced and rapidly aging population.

dteowner · April 3, 2012

GothicGothicness said:
Well, I would say we are going towards a situation where we have several powerful players, instead of one. Japan did fall, but they are still in a powerful 3rd or 4th position depending on how you count and is still a power to count on.

If you count the eurozone they're still number 1 or 2 in terms of economy power……

South America is also rising fast. So you'll probably have North America, South America, Asia, and Europe as major powers.

Unlike before when you had USA, USA and USA and a little bit of UK/France/Germany/Japan.

Makes sense. Military power just doesn't carry the clout it used to, so economics becomes the new measuring stick. In a global economy, market forces should level out all nations given enough time. Rich countries hand over their manufacturing and raw materials base to developing countries for the cheap labor, and hand over their cash to import it. The developing countries get richer while the rich countries get poorer. Obviously, there's a lot more factors affecting the balance, but overall the system is designed to bring everyone to the middle.

dteowner · April 3, 2012

JemyM said:
I agree. What worries me is how awful that implosion will be. The US is currently a divided nation with two distinct ideas about what the nation is supposed to be, two alternate newschannels, two alternate cultures and a lot of fear for one another. The education system is bad, there is a great amount of poverty and a lot of anxiousness. Psychologically uncertainty leads to higher radicalism and higher polarization. Historically this is a cocktail for disaster. If most of a nation exist to the far sides of the spectrum instead of the center of the spectrum, events can happen very rapidly when neighbors turn on neighbors. It happened within just a few years in Bosnia. There are plenty of firearms around to become a civil war. Another possible route is that a radical leader is elected, most likely a fascist or nationalist (a far-leftie is unlikely in the US) who use military force to keep the nation together. From that point one possible route is the attack on other nations, either for resources or to express power or both. Either way the culture will turn sour, probably worsen the education system even further with further weakening as a result.

Western Europe took a central route and rejected both violence, fascism, nationalism and later communism after the 2nd World War. The US didn't have it's ideological war yet. The US continues to be a war culture who proclaim itself a "winner" in the 2nd World War and later the cold war, then took sides and rejected the left part of the spectrum finding a healthy balance between two extremes.

Largely agree with you, but a few differences. First, we don't have that much true poverty, and we've got decent safety nets in place for the truly impoverished. What we do have is a lot of frustrated subsistence poor—folks that aren't starving to death, but aren't getting anywhere either. Second, you're so scared to death of nationalism (as usual) that you ignore other possibilities. I could see a couple "grass roots" movements prompting your civil war, rather than it having to be a top-down revolution. You could easily get a populist revolution ala Marie Antoinette France that doesn't really require a dynamic leader. Riots create their own inertia. On the other end, if government continues its overreach, you run the risk of prompting a backlash from what I generalize as the "militia righties". Those folks are generally well-armed and fairly prepared to carry on a guerrilla campaign against the government. They'd be more likely to bubble up a charismatic figurehead of some sort, but I don't know that it would be a definite requirement. You'd probably categorize the latter as a nationalist movement, but there's just as many differences as similarities between the militias and the traditional posterboy for textbook nationalism, Uncle Adolf. Both situations would drag on much longer than necessary due to the populace and government having vocal sympathetic minorities supporting each movement.

China Sees U.S. as Competitor and Declining Power

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