|
Your continuous donations keep RPGWatch running!
RPGWatch Forums » General Forums » Politics & Religion » 6NOV: The Apocolypse Cometh

Default 6NOV: The Apocolypse Cometh

November 7th, 2012, 18:55
Originally Posted by dteowner View Post
Check your history, champ. Republicans put 3 different budget proposals up for vote in the senate in the last year alone. All 3 were defeated on party lines. Democrats put up…well…absolutely nothing. They even refused to vote on Obummer's budget.

But don't let the facts get in the way of your blame game.
Yeah and they were all lousy budgets from the non-compromising extreme rightwing point of view, and took little to no input from Democrats. Budgets are supposed to be compromises between the parties, but not when the wacko right wing extremists are in control, I'm looking at you Tea Baggers. If those crazy budgets were accepted, social security, medicare, obamacare, food stamps, etc would have been trashed while wasteful defense spending would have been increased, taxes reduced on corporations and the wealthy, while the middle class would have to foot the bill. Righties purposely tried to fail to make Obama look bad. Well thank goodness most Americans have seen through their charade.
Last edited by Thrasher; November 7th, 2012 at 19:05.
Thrasher is offline

Thrasher

Thrasher's Avatar
Wheeee!
RPGWatch Donor

#121

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 9,938

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 18:55
Remember what George W. Bush told the Europeans when he wanted to rally support for his war against Iraq: "Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists". Europe want a partnership with USA, not being soldiers getting orders from USA.

I know that the wages are increasing in China, but the difference is still so huge so we can't compete in Europe. Eventually China will get into trouble like Japan and Korea (who were low-cost countries after the war). Then the production will move to other Asian countries like Indonesia. Eventually production will be moved to Africa.

The point is that the companies want to produce their goods in countries with the lowest salaries. Which countries will be chosen change over time.

20 or so years ago we saw companies establishing themselves in countries like Ireland and Hungary. Then they moved to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Now all of these countries are considered too high cost and jobs there are exported to Asia.

Paladin of Tyr
Peter Stauffenberg is offline

Peter Stauffenberg

Peter Stauffenberg's Avatar
Keeper of the Watch

#122

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Oslo, Norway
Posts: 851
Send a message via ICQ to Peter Stauffenberg Send a message via Skype™ to Peter Stauffenberg

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 18:58
Personally, I find it frustrating to think about extrapolated national debt curve for 2012-2016. The endless parade of blank checks is out of control. Bush may have started the mess but Obama put it into high gear.



Within 10-20 years, I predict extreme inflation as the U.S. is forced into printing more money to simply pay off interest to its lenders. Good thing that Washington can print dollars, or a Greek state of affairs would come to pass far sooner. Instead, things will just go to shit gradually.
Drithius is offline

Drithius

Drithius's Avatar
Misbegotten Alien

#123

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Florida, USA
Posts: 2,420

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 18:59
Originally Posted by blatantninja View Post
Thrasher, the reduction of the US debt rating had nothing to do with almost defaulting due to lack of a budget. We had the exact same situation occur under Clinton and the rating didn't drop. It was caused by long term concern over the viability of the debt, which both sides are guilty of causing and not correcting.
Not according to what I have read and heard in the news. Not sure where you got your information from. Let me guess, Faux News?
On a conference call today with reporters, S&P analysts David Beers and John Chambers said that in their analysis, the “extremely difficult” political discussions in Washington over how to reduce the more than $1 trillion budget deficit carried more weight in their decision than the nation’s outstanding debt. It said the talks weren’t “consistent” with a AAA rating.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0…on-accord.html
Last edited by Thrasher; November 7th, 2012 at 19:09.
Thrasher is offline

Thrasher

Thrasher's Avatar
Wheeee!
RPGWatch Donor

#124

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 9,938

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:02
Originally Posted by Peter Stauffenberg View Post
Remember what George W. Bush told the Europeans when he wanted to rally support for his war against Iraq: "Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists". Europe want a partnership with USA, not being soldiers getting orders from USA.
Actually he said that before Afghanistan, not Iraq. I'm not a huge fan of the phrase as it is too polarizing, but if ever there was an appropriate use, that was it.

I know that the wages are increasing in China, but the difference is still so huge so we can't compete in Europe. Eventually China will get into trouble like Japan and Korea (who were low-cost countries after the war). Then the production will move to other Asian countries like Indonesia. Eventually production will be moved to Africa.
South America is more likely. Africa has neither the infrastructure nor the political stability to become an economic powerhouse. Sad really because they have the natural resources.

————————————————-

"Ya'll can go to HELL! I'm-a-goin' to TEXAS!"

- Davy Crockett
blatantninja is offline

blatantninja

blatantninja's Avatar
Resident Redneck Facist

#125

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NYC
Posts: 4,046

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:06
Originally Posted by Drithius View Post
Personally, I find it frustrating to think about extrapolated national debt curve for 2012-2016. The endless parade of blank checks is out of control. Bush may have started the mess but Obama put it into high gear.

To be fair though, a large part of Obama's problem is that the economy has been at best meandering for the past 4 years. Federal revenues are down in many areas, and simply not matching 'normal' rises in expenses in others. It's made the situation worse than it would be otherwise. Now adding a few trillion from Obamacare certainly didn't help, but its not all his fault.

Originally Posted by Thrasher View Post
Not according to what I have read and heard in the news. Not sure where you got your information from. Let me guess, Faux News?
No, from 1) the fact that I work in this industry, specifically in bonds, so I have been dealing with rating changes for 15 years and 2) from the ratings agencies themselves:

http://www.standardandpoors.com/rati…=1245316529563

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
They do mention the bullheadedness of Congress and the Prez, but only in relation to handling the debt dynamics of medium to long-term debt service.

No one in their right mind thinks that the US is going to default on its debt simply because Congress and the Prez can't get along. Even without a budget, there will always be a provision in place to service the immediate debt concerns so long as it is fiscally able. As moronic as our elected officials are, they understand the utter destruction a default of US debt would unleash not just on the US, but the entire world. The concern is that some day it won't be a lack of agreement that puts debt service in question but the ability to service the debt (Not interest payments but rather to refinance maturing debt).

————————————————-

"Ya'll can go to HELL! I'm-a-goin' to TEXAS!"

- Davy Crockett
blatantninja is offline

blatantninja

blatantninja's Avatar
Resident Redneck Facist

#126

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NYC
Posts: 4,046

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:16
Well the political discussion referred to (see Bloomberg quote above) raised the threat of defaulting on payments. This irresponsibility is what dropped the credit rating. Glad to see that some of the wacko Tea Baggers got sacked from the House. Maybe there will be a better chance for compromise. Not holding my breath. For the rest of the CY, not clear what those lame ducks will do (if anything).
Thrasher is offline

Thrasher

Thrasher's Avatar
Wheeee!
RPGWatch Donor

#127

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 9,938

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:17
Originally Posted by blatantninja View Post
The problems with Europe are certainly tied to the US, but not caused by it. It's a global problem of spending too much and not producing enough, fed by easy credit (look to your own central banks as much as the Fed).
Many European countries lost Billions because we had invested in USA. E. g. Norway lost Billions because our huge Government fund had invested in subprime stocks. When wall street collapsed we lost a lot of money.

Norway is actually one of the few countries in the world with a big Government surplus. We're only 5 million people, but the government has more than $600 Billion in plus instead of a debt. The main reason is that we make a lot of money on oil production.

Other countries with a healthy economy also lost a lot of money in 2008 due to the wall street collapse.

We would not have lost the money if wall street hadn't collapsed in 2008. I know we can't just blame wall street. We also have to blame our own investors taking too big risks. Why on earth should we invest in subprime loans?

I think that the Norwegian investors should be more careful about investing in USA. It's too risky when you lack the control mechanisms in USA that could prevent situations like Enron, dirty subprime stocks etc.

I think we should invest our money in the EU instead. They're our neighbours in dire straights. They need our help to create more jobs.

I agree that Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal would have ended up in problems without the finance crisis. They were virtually bankrupt even before. Other European countries would not have ended up in a crisis without the US finance crisis.

Paladin of Tyr
Peter Stauffenberg is offline

Peter Stauffenberg

Peter Stauffenberg's Avatar
Keeper of the Watch

#128

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Oslo, Norway
Posts: 851
Send a message via ICQ to Peter Stauffenberg Send a message via Skype™ to Peter Stauffenberg

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:21
Originally Posted by Drithius View Post
Personally, I find it frustrating to think about extrapolated national debt curve for 2012-2016. The endless parade of blank checks is out of control. Bush may have started the mess but Obama put it into high gear.
That plot is bad because of reduced revenue due to a bad economy and the Bush era tax cuts and the added debt of 2 unpaid wars. If those effects were removed the curve would be almost flat. Refer to the plot in one of the much older threads for reference.
Thrasher is offline

Thrasher

Thrasher's Avatar
Wheeee!
RPGWatch Donor

#129

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 9,938

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:23
Originally Posted by Thrasher View Post
Well the political discussion referred to (see Bloomberg quote above) raised the threat of defaulting on payments. This irresponsibility is what dropped the credit rating. Glad to see that some of the wacko Tea Baggers got sacked from the House. Maybe there will be a better chance for compromise. Not holding my breath. For the rest of the CY, not clear what those lame ducks will do (if anything).
You're misreading it. They are concerned more about the deficit (which they should be) than the existing debt. The discussions were about reducing the deficit to slow the growth of the debt, not about whether or not to make the interest payments on the existing debts.

The Treasury was technically at the edge of default, since they needed the authority to act make the payments, but no one actually thought they'd miss a payment.

————————————————-

"Ya'll can go to HELL! I'm-a-goin' to TEXAS!"

- Davy Crockett
blatantninja is offline

blatantninja

blatantninja's Avatar
Resident Redneck Facist

#130

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NYC
Posts: 4,046

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:28
Originally Posted by Peter Stauffenberg View Post
Many European countries lost Billions because we had invested in USA. E. g. Norway lost Billions because our huge Government fund had invested in subprime stocks. When wall street collapsed we lost a lot of money.
Well, there is a way to get even: "Australia's Federal Court has ruled that credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) misled investors before the global financial crisis.

S&P gave its safest credit rating, AAA, to complex and risky securities, which later lost most of their value.

In what is regarded as a landmark ruling, the court ordered S&P and the bank which arranged the product, ABN Amro, to pay damages to investors."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20216638

I bet that quite a few countries were studying this case with interest…
zahratustra is offline

zahratustra

SasqWatch

#131

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,305

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:33
This is so typical of modern society. "We made bad investments, but dammit it's got to be somebody else's fault! Let's get them to pay for our mistakes. Who has deep pockets?"

I long for the day when personal responsibility exists again.

Sorry. No pearls of wisdom in this oyster.
Dallas Cowboys: *sigh* / / Detroit Red Wings: Took injuries to see them, but how about them youngsters!
dteowner is offline

dteowner

dteowner's Avatar
Shoegazer

#132

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Indiana, USA
Posts: 11,272

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:33
Originally Posted by Peter Stauffenberg View Post
Many European countries lost Billions because we had invested in USA.
And many US pension funds, 401ks, etc. lost billions because it was invested in Europe.

E. g. Norway lost Billions because our huge Government fund had invested in subprime stocks. When wall street collapsed we lost a lot of money.
I'm not sure if you mean subprime as in subprime mortgages or subprime as in just crappy stocks. Either way, European stocks cratered too. You'd have lost a ton, maybe more if you were invested solely in Europe as well.

Norway is actually one of the few countries in the world with a big Government surplus. We're only 5 million people, but the government has more than $600 Billion in plus instead of a debt. The main reason is that we make a lot of money on oil production.
Don't I know it, I work for a Norwegian firm.

Other countries with a healthy economy also lost a lot of money in 2008 due to the wall street collapse.
Who had a healthy economy that was brought down by the US '08 collapse? (And it wasn't just the US the collapsed, let's not forget all the home grown subprime mortgages in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, etc.) The fact is that outside of Germany and perhaps the Nordics, no one in Europe really had a healthy economy in '08. Their economies were fueled by cheap credit as much as the US's was.

We would not have lost the money if wall street hadn't collapsed in 2008. I know we can't just blame wall street. We also have to blame our own investors taking too big risks. Why on earth should we invest in subprime loans?
Again, you make it too simple. Europe had its own subprime collapse, its own problem of spending too much while producing too little fueled by cheap credit driven by the ECB policies as well. You can't separate the two and place the blame all on the US.

As for why to invest in subprime loans? Subprime loans can perform well, provided that you actually understand what they are and where the risks are, and the price reflects that. Mortgage Backed Securities obscured that, both in the US and Europe, due to complex BS valuations that yielded AAA status for them.

I think that the Norwegian investors should be more careful about investing in USA. It's too risky when you lack the control mechanisms in USA that could prevent situations like Enron, dirty subprime stocks etc.
The EU control mechanisms aren't much better (well maybe a bit now, but not prior to '08). Take a look at Carnegie, Norway's largest Investment Bank. Their troubles were 100% home grown and their crash as bad as anything short of Lehman.

I think we should invest our money in the EU instead. They're our neighbours in dire straights. They need our help to create more jobs.
Go for it, but until you fix the underlying problems with you social programs and banking sector, it isn't going to change anything.

I agree that Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal would have ended up in problems without the finance crisis. They were virtually bankrupt even before. Other European countries would not have ended up in a crisis without the US finance crisis.
That's pure ignorance. France ended up in dire straights, not because of the US financial crisis, but because somehow they became the lender of last resort to the PIIGS. Take a look at who owns the biggest chunk of debt from those countries, its France, the second 'healthiest' economy in Europe.

————————————————-

"Ya'll can go to HELL! I'm-a-goin' to TEXAS!"

- Davy Crockett
blatantninja is offline

blatantninja

blatantninja's Avatar
Resident Redneck Facist

#133

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NYC
Posts: 4,046

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:34
Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
Well, there is a way to get even: "Australia's Federal Court has ruled that credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) misled investors before the global financial crisis.

S&P gave its safest credit rating, AAA, to complex and risky securities, which later lost most of their value.

In what is regarded as a landmark ruling, the court ordered S&P and the bank which arranged the product, ABN Amro, to pay damages to investors."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20216638

I bet that quite a few countries were studying this case with interest…
S&P, Moody's and Finch should have been fined into oblivion.

————————————————-

"Ya'll can go to HELL! I'm-a-goin' to TEXAS!"

- Davy Crockett
blatantninja is offline

blatantninja

blatantninja's Avatar
Resident Redneck Facist

#134

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NYC
Posts: 4,046

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:34
Originally Posted by dteowner View Post
This is so typical of modern society. "We made bad investments, but dammit it's got to be somebody else's fault! Let's get them to pay for our mistakes. Who has deep pockets?"

I long for the day when personal responsibility exists again.
I hope you have an immortality pill.

————————————————-

"Ya'll can go to HELL! I'm-a-goin' to TEXAS!"

- Davy Crockett
blatantninja is offline

blatantninja

blatantninja's Avatar
Resident Redneck Facist

#135

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NYC
Posts: 4,046

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:41
Originally Posted by blatantninja View Post
S&P, Moody's and Finch should have been fined into oblivion.
What do you fine them for? There was certainly (and still is) a huge conflict of interest in the ratings biz, but that's not illegal under the laws of the time nor the laws of today. I'm not sure how you can penalize companies for following the rules that are presented to them. Sure, the rules were stupid and destructive, but the companies didn't make them.

The role of a company is to exploit its situation in every way possible to make money. Why should we penalize them for doing exactly that? If society doesn't like the results, then society has to change the rules. Expecting companies to not squeeze every penny out of a situation is just foolish.

Sorry. No pearls of wisdom in this oyster.
Dallas Cowboys: *sigh* / / Detroit Red Wings: Took injuries to see them, but how about them youngsters!
Last edited by dteowner; November 7th, 2012 at 19:46. Reason: added paragraph 2
dteowner is offline

dteowner

dteowner's Avatar
Shoegazer

#136

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Indiana, USA
Posts: 11,272

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:45
Originally Posted by blatantninja View Post
You're misreading it. They are concerned more about the deficit (which they should be) than the existing debt. The discussions were about reducing the deficit to slow the growth of the debt, not about whether or not to make the interest payments on the existing debts.
That may be so, but the debt/deficit in and of itself didn't cause the downgrading, it was the politics of rightwing extremists unwilling to compromise that caused it. And apparently it may happen again:

http://www.latimes.com/business/mone…,6939564.story
Thrasher is offline

Thrasher

Thrasher's Avatar
Wheeee!
RPGWatch Donor

#137

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 9,938

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:51
Here's a proposal.
No.
Here's another proposal.
No.
How about this proposal?
No.
OK, how about the president's proposal?
No.
Well, do you have something of your own we can discuss?
No.

Yep, it's clear to me that the democrats were bending over backwards to get a deal done. But don't let the real world intrude on your worldview, champ.

Sorry. No pearls of wisdom in this oyster.
Dallas Cowboys: *sigh* / / Detroit Red Wings: Took injuries to see them, but how about them youngsters!
dteowner is offline

dteowner

dteowner's Avatar
Shoegazer

#138

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Indiana, USA
Posts: 11,272

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:51
Originally Posted by dteowner View Post
This is so typical of modern society. "We made bad investments, but dammit it's got to be somebody else's fault! Let's get them to pay for our mistakes. Who has deep pockets?"

I long for the day when personal responsibility exists again.
What is the color of the sky on your planet dte? Have you read even my thumbnail before kneejerking? S&P gave to structured debt issues in question an AAA rating. You can't have safer investment than that!

Originally Posted by dteowner View Post
What do you fine them for?
For misleading (lying to) investors? Just like Australian Federal court did?
zahratustra is offline

zahratustra

SasqWatch

#139

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,305

Default 

November 7th, 2012, 19:56
Originally Posted by dteowner View Post
Here's a proposal.
No.
Here's another proposal.
No.
How about this proposal?
No.
OK, how about the president's proposal?
No.
Well, do you have something of your own we can discuss?
No.

Yep, it's clear to me that the democrats were bending over backwards to get a deal done. But don't let the real world intrude on your worldview, champ.
That's not how you compromise on a proposal. Clearly you suffer from the same malady as the right wing wackos. You need to all sit down at a table, both sides prepared with a list of possibilities to draw from, and you hammer out a compromise. Not freaky Paul Ryan style proposals. Apparently, the righties left Dems out of the process.
Thrasher is offline

Thrasher

Thrasher's Avatar
Wheeee!
RPGWatch Donor

#140

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Studio City, CA
Posts: 9,938
RPGWatch Forums » General Forums » Politics & Religion » 6NOV: The Apocolypse Cometh
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT +2. The time now is 07:07.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright by RPGWatch