CVG - PC Gamer Predictions

Corwin said:

Did anyone consider that the rights could have been bought to prevent someone else making FO3, if Beth had plans to make their own post appoc game!!

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I seriously doubt that.

Dhruin said:

Discussing the strategy behind purchasing the rights is a different discussion to whether TB or RT is required, in my opinion.

Automatic hit? Obviously that depends on the exact definition of "hit"...I really can't see this failing based on Bethsoft's name and likely use of technology...but I also can't see it being bigger than Oblivion. At the end of the day, high fantasy will trump post-apoc regardless of the other parameters.

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Call of Cthulhu I'm pretty sure was a failure. It had Beth's name all over it and that couldn't save it.

I think people should realize many games have a "collective unconscious" about them. There are many names in the industry that are surprisingly resilient. Bard's Tale, System Shock, Wasteland, Ultima, Wizardry, Wolfenstein, Star Wars, Alien, Pool of Radiance...all names that seem to stick around and find new fans. I was shocked to discover "new" ultima fans that didn't like Ultima 3 after they investigated having only played 7. etc...

Dhruin said:

License. Kharn will have the details to hand but they have the right to make Fallout 3 and then (IIRC - don't have time to check) the right to make sequels for additional payments (around $1M each time?). They can also develop handheld and other products but *not* an MMO.

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NMA has a special feature page dedicated to clear up the massive confusion around the Fallout licenses and assets. To quote from there:
The license to make a singleplayer or online co-op sequel to Fallout 2 has been purchased by Bethesda Softworks LLC (Bethesda), a ZeniMax Media company, for $1.175 million dollars guaranteed advance against royalties. Bethesda also has a deal for an option for making two additional sequels at the cost of $1 million dollars guaranteed advance against royalties each. The deal is not affected by whatever happens to Interplay. Bethesda's right to make Fallout 3 and options on Fallout 4 and 5 are unaffected by what happens to Interplay and to ownership of the license.

Note that for that amount of money they still haven't bought it, it's a guaranteed advance against royalties, meaning that if royalties exceed 1.175 million they'll have to pay Interplay that too. A popular topic of conversation amongst Interplay investors.

I think people should realize many games have a "collective unconscious" about them.

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This collective unconsciousness is hardly immortal, nor does it guarantee hits anymore than the Bethesda name does.

There is no such thing as a "surefire hit". Sure Bethesda has the know-how and the reputation to churn out another hit (though, as Dhruin says, probably not of the size of Oblivion, but they're not investing as much this time around, so that's not a problem), but there's no way anyone can guarantee it'll be a hit based on either the name or Bethesda's name. Usually, guaranteed sales are fairly low in numbers, like Troika's guaranteed market, or Vogel's. A market of 3 million is never guaranteed.

Thanks for that.

I, like aries100, am pretty much through with Fallout discussions. I do however find all this marketing and licensing data fascinating.

Interesting stuff about Beth basically licensing a franchise(3 titles other than MMO) and still having to siphon off any excess profits to Interplay, who- and wherever they are. Thanks for the info, Kharn.

This stuff from NPD is worth a little examination also.

Moriendor quoted this report, (which I have taken liberties with):

Report From The NPD Group Shows 45 Percent Of Heavy Video Gamers Are In The Six - To 17-Year-Old Age Group

According to the report, Heavy Gamers’ demographic/gender parameters also expand beyond 18- to 34-year-old males: 21 percent of this segment is female. The Heavy Gamer segment comprises only 3 percent of the total game playing population, contrary to common assumption that these serious gamers constitute a larger percentage of the game-playing population and retail sales dollars....
snip* market segment analysis blahblahblah*
Methodology
The data in this report was collected via an online survey using NPD’s robust (yes, it has to be robust!)U.S consumer panel. The sample is comprised of 16,670 respondents ages six to 44. Panelists who currently own video game systems (portable and console) were targeted.

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This looks like a serious report that will be taken all too seriously, yet what is the real meat?
They surveyed 16 thousand Americans in a 38 year age span who presumably game with consoles/portables. A goodly number, yes, but one wonders what percentage of the total world gaming population (and ensuing "retail sales dollars") that actually represents. We end up with a target market of six+ year olds with consoles and handhelds who are all living in the U.S.

Fortunately for their mental development, only 3% of them are Heavy Gamers.

It's amazing ANYbody is making Fallout3 or any other game more complex than Pacman...(er, MS Pacman--21% are female after all...)

I'm sure these statistics could be interpreted differently, and I am mostly joking along here, but bear with me. Trends all too often seem to have their birth in what is little more than hot air and then set up their own reality. This is probably the market surveyed and given emphasis because it is perceived as the most affluent (tho most six - 17 year olds might disagree.) They want these people, preferably for life.

Is this the only successful gaming market? I have my doubts.

I believe the so-called "marketing experts" have this problem as well.

Wel,l, their comany wants to make money, doesn't it ? And for money they need the most possible income.

Where is actually the most possible income generated ? Which age group ?

This is a question the marketing has to ask itself, too, because if they want to get the most cash, then they have to focus on those with it or the largest amoung within the biggest group ( 10 people having 1000 dollars or 1000 people having 10 dollars ?).

So, they just NEED such studies like the one mentioned, AND they need people whi are good at analysing them ! Analysts !

The currend trend towards younger audiences means to me that they have found or decided that they rather want to go the "1000 people with 10 dollars" scheme. I personally assume that the older generation(s) are rather the other group.

I just see a more and more flow of games tpowards so-called "casual gamers" and a younger generation - generating what i call "wishy-washy- games". Oblivion looks great, and that is imho the most important point for those who are attracted by rather eye-candy than content.

I just wonder how Fallout 3 will look like. Will it be kind of an Oblivion - great, shiny graphics - so, that it might appeal to the greatest number of gamers available ?

What we *really* need is a study on how many gamers are attracted rather by content than by look.

I have seen a BBC online report which the BBC had made, and it showed that the average gamer (in the UK) was about 28-29 years old. (I think, studies in the US have proven the same) thing). It is sort of difficult to read the figures etc. but one of the figures I remember was that about ½ of the age group of adults enjoyed playing video games, both on console and rpgs. Only 15-20% percent of all adults played rpgs, though. (again, this is sort of difficult to find in the report,since the report tends to smack rpgs, adventure games, puzzle games, etc. together in one group, which means that games like tetris, syberia and fallout are placed in the same category. However, the report proves a tendency...that older people, e.g. people over 25+ do like playing rpgs and other videogames as well).

As for the 6-17 year olds playing videogames, well, I still think that game companies are shooting themselves in the foot, if they don't develop (mature) games aimed at an adult market. While they could get the 6-17 year olds right now, they need to plan ahead for the next 10 years or so. And this means that the 15 year old will then be 25 year's old, and interested in different types of game content than they were when they were 15 years old.

As for who has the money, in Denmark (and other scandinavian countries) there can be no doubt: It is the young between people, the young adolescents between 12-18 years of age that has the money overall. Many of these young people get a lot of money from their parents each month as well as they have jobs where they earn good money. And they pay nothing at all for living at home with their parents.
This means they have maybe USD 200- or USD 400- or even maybe USD 600- each month to use on anything they like: cell phones, clothes, video games etc. etc.

Anyway, I agree that the videogame industry seems to be going for the 1000 people with the 10 dollars instead of the 10 people with the 1000 dollars. Maybe the video industry just need to go going for the 500 people with the 20 dollars instead ??

Yeah, but the market price is fixed for games - it tops out at USD$50 ($60 for CE or top console release). I was watching a thread on another forum where people were accusing Matrix Games (indie strategy developers) of ripping off players because they charge up to $55 for their indie (often low-tech) games. Personally, I'd happily pay $USD80 for an RPG (or whatever) if it really was good enough but the market pricing structure is pretty flat and all hell breaks out if otherwise.

I don't why this is, that there seems to be a fixed market price for videogames (rpgs, too) at 50 USD, since games 10 years ago also did cost - wait for it - $50 US.
[If we were to pay the correct price for games, accounting for the inflation during the years, we would pay about $60-$65 US (or perhaps even higher prices) for games].

Personally, I would be willing to pay up til $80-$100 for a good game. I don't much about the market the market structure in the US, or how games are prices, but it seems oddly suspicious to me that ALL (new) games are targeted to be sold at 50 USD dollars or so.

Perhaps, but down here, games sell for $80-100 and have done for years. If the US price goes up, so will ours and I don't want to be paying $125 per game!!