XBOX one: the last nail to the coffin

jhwisner said:

At a developer cut of $25 per full priced game and, extending that ratio through to games sold at a discount, a $1 billion grossing game would net the publish about $362 million. Considering COD:MW2 had a launch budget estimated to be about $200 million including marketing and other costs (development only made up $40-50 million of that), a gross of about $1 billion would likely correspond to an extremely profitable game and well exceeding the company's minimum acceptable return on investment.

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That's a big publisher's perspective. These companies are similar to investors who pump amount X into a project with the intention of getting X + Y back.

Things are looking differently from the perspective of an independent development studio. They are usually only contracted for a certain project, which is only one key element of a whole product as you explained. Naturally the dev has to assume that the contract ends as agreed upon, so a new contract has to be ready, if possible with a certain overlap so that all those specialists can move over when their work on the current project is done. Keeping the project pipeline filled is a major problem.
The question whether or not a game breaks even is often (but not always!) only of secondary importance for the developer because (a) it was a flat fee contract or (b) the conditions for their royalties are so bad that they cannot realistically be expected or (c) their bonus conditions are basically a lottery (-> see FO:NV). In all these cases the studio gets their milestone payments and that's it.

One PC niche that was forgotten: professional gaming. Happens mostly on PC games.

Here's what PC gaming is to be sumed up to:
-student class projects type.
-same old, same old, tried and tested game design type
-clumsy port type
-graphically updated versions of old games (graphics whorism)
-games for professional gaming type

GhanBuriGhan said:

Why do you think even mid tier developers like Obsidian and in Xile are excited about doing Kickstarter projects on a measly 1-3 million $ budget? Because they still have the development payed (if they control their costs properly), but any profit goes to them (deducting the digital distributors cut of 10-15%, I think). For as long as the game sells. If they are lucky and PE or Wasteland 2 become a success (and here that does not require nearly as many sales, because they have already broken even, see above), they stand to win a considerable amount of independence and financial security, possibly far in excess of the actual KS funds they received.

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Brilliant business model. No financial risk, all the profit and a lot of free marketing.

The costs communicated for digital distribution are usually 30-40%, not 10-15%. Where did you hear the lower number?

The pie chart is based on a retail console game in NA. For Europe the numbers will be different due to included VAT and the dominant market position of two key players. I simply cannot imagine Amazon or MSH would carry software with a margin of only 25% (48 -> 60).

ChienAboyeur said:

A two world divide is looming ahead, worlds moving at different speeds.
The console world with developpers working hard to push an architecture to its maximum. Always new things to be tried, with developpers looking ahead instead of looking back, developpers excited by the new possibilities given by their toys.

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Those next-gen consoles actually have to PROVE that they are ahead of current-gen PCs. This MAY be possible, but doubtful given the specs known so far.
Pushing architecture to the new max? Yeah. Problem is: the architecture on consoles pretty much stays the same from the first date of release, while you can can get an upgrade for a PC every year if you want.

You can see at it any way you want, in two years every developer has problems to push the tech on consoles, simply because the limits are still the same. Not so on PCs.

ChienAboyeur said:

At the moment, you'll have a hard time giving a few names of innovative games coming from the PC scene. It will get even harder in the future.

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Minecraft, Botanicula, The Sims, Portal, Quantum Conundrum, World of Goo….

… because the console scene is full of innovation and not dominated by "same old, tried and tested game design type" games…. NOT. Let's face it: the really innovative titles on consoles (like Journey) are coming from the same part of the business as on PC: the Indies. And PC Indy development has never been stronger then right now.

But you can happily keep gaming jewels like Fable: the journey, Star Wars Kinect…. or any other Kinect or Playstation Move game. No PC gamer will shed a tear.

ChienAboyeur said:

Transitioning takes time. Transitioning from the period when games were developped with the potential of a PC in mind to a the period when PCs are the cheap platform to release on, with ports, student class projects, or the same, same old, tried and tested game designs.

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And how long that transition will take? 10 more years? You think they finally manage to do it with this new generation or will they need yet another?

Because the vast majority of new releases within the last 10 years was on consoles first or at least with consoles in mind. Yet PC gaming still lives.

ChienAboyeur said:

KS projects are more from developpers who cant afford to developp for consoles as they cant simply compete and use PCs to release their third world games.

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Torment: Tides of Numenera, Project Eternity, Wasteland 2, Double Fine Adventure - third world games? All with 60k+ backers, throwing millions in?

With all due respect - how old are you? Please check the web about Wasteland or Planescape: Torment and find out what made them special. Check why we don't see games like that being made as AAA-titles nowadays. I give you a little hint on that one: consoles. Dumbed down, stupid console experiences made for sheeps.

ChienAboyeur said:

Actually, all these developpers are going to be fed by the achievements released by console gaming. They will copy the innovative features.

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Here's the kicker: they can't. They'd have to dumb it down like Dragon Age: Origins to DA2 to get that done.

ChienAboyeur said:

There will be games played on PCs for a long time. Does not mean that PC gaming is not dead.

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Deep strategie games (Total War series), adventures (Book of unwritten Tales), a modded Skyrim (26k+ mods on the Nexus alone), at least a dozen prime examples on Kickstarter…. that's just a few unique ones you can't get on console and probably never will. And considering how many times PC gaming being called dead, there's sure a lot of AAA-titles being portet over (more or less adapted) to it.
Yes, PC gaming suffered from consoles in the last decade if not longer. I'm not gonna paint that picture pretty. But any "PC gaming is dead" caller now is as wrong as they were in the last 10 years - and they were all.

Oh, new poster! Welcome aboard!

Siannah said:

Those next-gen consoles actually have to PROVE that they are ahead of current-gen PCs. This MAY be possible, but doubtful given the specs known so far.

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Depends on what "current-gen PC" means. The latest $3000 PC has no worries. The average PC has just 2 cores, which really isn't going to cut it. (Though it looks like 4 cores may catch up by the time the next generation actually starts.)

Torment: Tides of Numenera, Project Eternity, Wasteland 2, Double Fine Adventure - third world games? All with 60k+ backers, throwing millions in?

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I know you're getting trolled so its hard to think rationally but… skipping Star Citizen? Especially with that video on the front page??

Zloth said:

Oh, new poster! Welcome aboard!

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Thanks. I intend to stay mostly in lurker-mode, but couldn't hold my horses on that one.

Zloth said:

I know you're getting trolled so its hard to think rationally but… skipping Star Citizen? Especially with that video on the front page??

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I haven't forgotten about Star Citizen. Or Elite Dangerous. Planetary Annihilation, Shadowrun Returns, Shroud of the Avatar.... just wanted to point out a few examples, not bring him up to date.

Siannah said:

...
Deep strategie games (Total War series), adventures (Book of unwritten Tales), a modded Skyrim (26k+ mods on the Nexus alone), at least a dozen prime examples on Kickstarter…. that's just a few unique ones you can't get on console and probably never will. And considering how many times PC gaming being called dead, there's sure a lot of AAA-titles being portet over (more or less adapted) to it.
Yes, PC gaming suffered from consoles in the last decade if not longer. I'm not gonna paint that picture pretty. But any "PC gaming is dead" caller now is as wrong as they were in the last 10 years - and they were all.

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If you consider Total War series as 'deep strategy games', I recommend trying Paradox 'really deep strategy games' Start with maybe Rome (though it's too old now) or Crusader Kings 2, then Europa Universalis, then Victoria and Heart of Iron in order of complexity.

wolfing said:

If you consider Total War series as 'deep strategy games', I recommend trying Paradox 'really deep strategy games'

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That's of course compared to what's available in the strategy department for consoles. Didn't wanted to take a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

wolfing said:

If you consider Total War series as 'deep strategy games', I recommend trying Paradox 'really deep strategy games' Start with maybe Rome (though it's too old now) or Crusader Kings 2, then Europa Universalis, then Victoria and Heart of Iron in order of complexity.

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And if paradox is not enough you can go look what matrix offers. War in the pacific is easily the deepest strategy game ever made by man. East front is pretty complex too. And distant worlds.

I've just read a bunch of GTX 780 tests. If it's any indication, the stuff they put into PS4 and XO will be far behind even medium cards at launch. They should've put a bit more juice into the graphics cards, as there's no way such a mediocre solution will last 4-5 years like their predecessors. X360 and PS3 were both top notch at release.

EA's Rajat Taneja in an interview for Linked In says practically that nextgen of consoles are abnormally ahead of modern PC. Won't quote, just read that please:
http://www.develop-online.net/news/44289/EA-Xbox-One-and-PS4-a-generation-ahead-of-PC

There is a reaction to this. Mark Rein from EpicGames says only one word. Bullshit.
https://twitter.com/MarkRein/status/337627995323895808

Should I add that Mark Rein develops console titles for years now?
In fact, I want the same drugs EA employees use. ASAP.

joxer said:

EA's Rajat Taneja in an interview for Linked In says practically that nextgen of consoles are abnormally ahead of modern PC. Won't quote, just read that please:
http://www.develop-online.net/news/44289/EA-Xbox-One-and-PS4-a-generation-ahead-of-PC

There is a reaction to this. Mark Rein from EpicGames says only one word. Bullshit.
https://twitter.com/MarkRein/status/337627995323895808

Should I add that Mark Rein develops console titles for years now?
In fact, I want the same drugs EA employees use. ASAP.

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I see the same stuff happen every time a new console is ready to come out. It's always 5x faster than any computer, and they have facts to prove it. It's not going to stop as it creates hype and pleases the investors.

Couchpotato said:

I see the same stuff happen every time a new console is ready to come out. It's always 5x faster than any computer, and they have facts to prove it. It's not going to stop as it creates hype and pleases the investors.

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The difference is: Last time they actually were pretty good. Especially the PS3 had some serious hardware at the time. This time around it's just not the case.

joxer said:

EA's Rajat Taneja in an interview for Linked In says practically that nextgen of consoles are abnormally ahead of modern PC. Won't quote, just read that please:
http://www.develop-online.net/news/44289/EA-Xbox-One-and-PS4-a-generation-ahead-of-PC

There is a reaction to this. Mark Rein from EpicGames says only one word. Bullshit.
https://twitter.com/MarkRein/status/337627995323895808

Should I add that Mark Rein develops console titles for years now?
In fact, I want the same drugs EA employees use. ASAP.

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Well, I am the first one to bash EA but to be fair what he said is actually this in red below, and from a gaming perspective I more or less agree with him:

That they are ahead in architecture, it doesn't mean they'll be faster than the highest end PC.

"These architectures are a generation ahead of the highest end PC on the market and their unique design of the hardware, the underlying operating system and the live service layer create one of the most compelling platforms to reimagine game mechanics. Our benchmarks on just the video and audio performance are 8-10 times superior to the current gen."

Maylander said:

The difference is: Last time they actually were pretty good. Especially the PS3 had some serious hardware at the time. This time around it's just not the case.

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Yes it may not be true but it's not going to stop them from trying. As I said hype and investors. Microsoft bite themselves on their ass with negative press but it's just as good. It gets people talking about your system.

Siannah said:

Those next-gen consoles actually have to PROVE that they are ahead of current-gen PCs. This MAY be possible, but doubtful given the specs known so far.

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It is not about specs. It is about exploiting an architecture to push gaming as much as it could be.

As noted, certain game features shown on the next gen consoles were not introduced on PCs even though PCs could support it.

Actually, if PCs specs are superior, it makes even more obvious than PC gaming is dead as consoles act as a limitating factor to games on PCs and how they could be developped.
Clumsy ports and all…

You can see at it any way you want, in two years every developer has problems to push the tech on consoles, simply because the limits are still the same. Not so on PCs.

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PC developpers have no problem pushing the tech on PCs: they simply do not do it.

Minecraft, Botanicula, The Sims, Portal, Quantum Conundrum, World of Goo….

… because the console scene is full of innovation and not dominated by "same old, tried and tested game design type" games…. NOT. Let's face it: the really innovative titles on consoles (like Journey) are coming from the same part of the business as on PC: the Indies. And PC Indy development has never been stronger then right now.
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In what are they innovative?

And how long that transition will take? 10 more years? You think they finally manage to do it with this new generation or will they need yet another?

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Transitions take the time they do. It's mostly done though. Most games will be either developped with tablets or consoles in mind. Beside, there will always be the odd game specifically developped for PCs.

Because the vast majority of new releases within the last 10 years was on consoles first or at least with consoles in mind. Yet PC gaming still lives.

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If so, then it means that PC gaming is dead. People arguing on the ground that PC gaming means games played on PCs are excluding a possible answer "yes" to the question "is pc gaming dead?"
As long as there are pcs, games will be played on PCs. PCs need an OS and OSs come with games these days.

Torment: Tides of Numenera, Project Eternity, Wasteland 2, Double Fine Adventure - third world games? All with 60k+ backers, throwing millions in?

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All of them are games that could have been released on PCs five or six years ago. They certainly do not require to push the architecture of the current gen of PCs. They are gaming for an older PC generation. As such, yes, they belong to a third world in gaming.

With all due respect - how old are you? Please check the web about Wasteland or Planescape: Torment and find out what made them special. Check why we don't see games like that being made as AAA-titles nowadays. I give you a little hint on that one: consoles. Dumbed down, stupid console experiences made for sheeps.

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Dumbed down? Sheeps? Actually, genres played on consoles are genres that made advance through the last decade. Contrary to many games belonging to the PC stronghold, that have kept stalling.
When it comes to gaming, it is better to play accomplished game design than stuttering game design.

Here's the kicker: they can't. They'd have to dumb it down like Dragon Age: Origins to DA2 to get that done.

Deep strategie games (Total War series), adventures (Book of unwritten Tales), a modded Skyrim (26k+ mods on the Nexus alone), at least a dozen prime examples on Kickstarter…. that's just a few unique ones you can't get on console and probably never will. And considering how many times PC gaming being called dead, there's sure a lot of AAA-titles being portet over (more or less adapted) to it.
Yes, PC gaming suffered from consoles in the last decade if not longer. I'm not gonna paint that picture pretty. But any "PC gaming is dead" caller now is as wrong as they were in the last 10 years - and they were all.

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Reading a thread usually helps to avoid repeating. PC gaming is not about games being played on PCs, numbers of games played on PCs. Clumsy ports from consoles to PCs are another evidence that PC gaming is dead. AAA projects are essentially developped and conceived with console gaming in mind. Publishers, studios are not about to cut themselves from possible sales when they know PC players will buy a clumsy port of a game designed for consoles.

ChienAboyeur said:

… because the console scene is full of innovation and not dominated by "same old, tried and tested game design type" games….

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If consoles are innovative, then please list those innovations. Selling more does NOT equal innovation. All consoles are doing is selling more volume of a narrower set of high-priced eye-candy made by extremely risk-averse studios who happily pop out sequel after sequel ... let's look at the top games:

Rank Title Publisher
1 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 Activision Blizzard
2 Just Dance 3 Ubisoft
3 Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Bethesda Softworks
4 Battlefield 3 Electronic Arts
5 Madden NFL 12 Electronic Arts
6 Call of Duty: Black Ops Activision Blizzard
7 Batman: Arkham City Warner Bros. Interactive
8 Gears of War 3 Microsoft
9 Just Dance 2 Ubisoft
10 Assassin's Creed: Revelations Ubisoft

#2 & #9 are basically song-list extensions of the original (which IS a blast to play). It is based off the Wii, and is the most innovative title, due to motion controls. Notable because it is NOT an original for XBOX or PS3.

More bland shooters and football games, and a couple of decent sequels.

Not a blasted innovation on the list.

So please - enlighten us about all of those console innovations.

Console games are even less innovative than PC games. Obviously so, because that's the platform where you have to appeal to the widest audience.

I don't expect any innovation in next gen consoles as I did not expect them in previous gen consoles. There might be innovation in graphics, motion capture and button mashing, but not in terms of gameplay, AI programming, game design, and in respecting the gamer. All of the latter takes time and money, which is not the purpose of consoles. The hardware can support all of these innovations, but the console model is just opposite of that.

You can already see all the gaming news websites talking about the next gen consoles; which games they are focusing on? CoD and Battlefield - so much for innovation.

I am expecting to see more of this crud news in the future with console only games, and poor PC ports (here we go again!).

ChienAboyeur said:

It is not about specs. It is about exploiting an architecture to push gaming as much as it could be.

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And that has not been proven at all. On what are such claims based on? Hear-say? Wishful thinking? Marketing speech?

The release of new hardware (especially consoles) is always combined with territorial claims, muscle playing and straight up bragging. Do you believe what that EA-guy Rajat Teneja claimed or that Epic Games Mark Rein called it bullshit?
In the end, you can believe which ever you want. Still doesn't make it "fact" or "proven" - and that's what counts.

ChienAboyeur said:

Actually, if PCs specs are superior, it makes even more obvious than PC gaming is dead as consoles act as a limitating factor to games on PCs and how they could be developped.
Clumsy ports and all…

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That's pretty much the situation for the last 10 years or so. Will that change with the new-gen consoles? Nope.
However, not being mainstream does not equal dead.

ChienAboyeur said:

PC developpers have no problem pushing the tech on PCs: they simply do not do it.

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Crysis 1, 2 and 3 never happened, nope Sir.
Neither did DirectX 10.1 and 11.
Or the Witcher 2.
100+ players on the same map / battlefield? PC exclusive, sry. Not to mention MMOs where I've seen bigger battles 10 years ago.

ChienAboyeur said:

All of them are games that could have been released on PCs five or six years ago. They certainly do not require to push the architecture of the current gen of PCs. They are gaming for an older PC generation. As such, yes, they belong to a third world in gaming.

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Edit: if that is your definition of "gaming being dead" then yes, PC gaming is dead and that since years. However, for a dead system that's sure a lot of noise coming from - all those years.

Yes they could have been on PCs five or six years ago - from a technical standpoint. No they couldn't have been, because no publisher was willing to go down that road.
Gamers have been asking for a new Wing Commander, Shadowrun, Ultima, Popoulus or Dungeon Keeper not for years, but decades. Nothing happened. Now and within just 1 year, they all have at least a spiritual successor in the pipeline - and mostly PC only.

Microsoft still has the rights on the Shadowrun franchise, one of the biggest you can have in this business. All they managed to do with it, was releasing an uninspired shooter nobody wanted.
Yet a small, previously unknown studio managed to get 36k gamers to literally pre-order their version based on a preview. A version you consider third world in gaming.

If you truly feel that way, you really fail to even grasp how HUGE kickstarter right now is in gaming history.

Edit: on a side note - what's the biggest golden cash cow in gaming history? World of Warcraft. A PC exclusive. Not to shabby for a third world game on a dead system.

ChienAboyeur said:

Dumbed down? Sheeps? Actually, genres played on consoles are genres that made advance through the last decade. Contrary to many games belonging to the PC stronghold, that have kept stalling.
When it comes to gaming, it is better to play accomplished game design than stuttering game design.

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Lucasarts claimed adventures to be dead. Lucasarts left their PC legacy behind, fokusing on consoles. Lucasarts is no more.
Telltale makes a living from adventure games, with the walking dead winning numerous Goty-awards.
Once again, now being mainstream != dead.

You claim innovation being on consoles, then turn around defending the dumbed down, same old, tried and tested game design type, which you blamed the PC before. That twist must have hurt, man….

ChienAboyeur said:

AAA projects are essentially developped and conceived with console gaming in mind. Publishers, studios are not about to cut themselves from possible sales when they know PC players will buy a clumsy port of a game designed for consoles.

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Yes, AAA projects are made with consoles in mind - who doubted that? As pointed out, that IS where a few problems with gaming in general nowadays come from.

And yes, PC players will buy those clumsy ports. For 10 bucks or less on the next Steam sale. Yes the publishers ARE hurting from that and blame piracy for the lack of sales on PC, but not the dumbed down, lousy tacked-on PC port. What else is new?