Prime Junta
RPGCodex' Little BRO
- Joined
- October 19, 2006
- Messages
- 8,540
Hezbollah's spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah just kicked it.
[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10500869.stm ]
This may (or may not) have some interesting repercussions.
On the one hand, he was implacably anti-Israeli and anti-American. His passing means that there is an opening for Hezbollah to moderate its stance, should it want to do so.
On the other hand, he was a social progressive, and has done a lot for women's rights in particular. It's largely through his influence that the (pretty good) primary educational system set up by the Hezbollah treats girls and boys the same way, and he has been pushing hard to break the stranglehold of the extremely patriarchal society that's been keeping Shi'ite women veiled, barefoot, and pregnant in Lebanon. (He's kept the veil, but has made progress on the other two points.)
So, this also creates an opening for the social conservatives in Hezbollah. This would have serious internal repercussions in Lebanon, which is overall a pretty socially-liberal kind of country, by Arab standards anyway, with plenty of women in highly visible positions (again, by Arab standards).
The Hezb keeps a notoriously tight lid on its internal doings, so it'll certainly be a while before we see any changes. A good deal will depend on who steps in. There are plenty of ranking Shi'ite clerics to choose from, who represent the whole gamut of political positions with regards to foreign policy, internal politics, and social policy. Usually the Hezb has the succession for any important position planned out in advance (for obvious reasons), but I don't know if this is the case with regards to the spiritual leader, who has a bit of a unique status—no formal powers, but enormous informal influence.
IOW, anything, or nothing, could change.
Changes are rarely for the better in the Middle East, so I wouldn't get too optimistic about this—but a possibility for change is always cause for hope as well as dread. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10500869.stm ]
This may (or may not) have some interesting repercussions.
On the one hand, he was implacably anti-Israeli and anti-American. His passing means that there is an opening for Hezbollah to moderate its stance, should it want to do so.
On the other hand, he was a social progressive, and has done a lot for women's rights in particular. It's largely through his influence that the (pretty good) primary educational system set up by the Hezbollah treats girls and boys the same way, and he has been pushing hard to break the stranglehold of the extremely patriarchal society that's been keeping Shi'ite women veiled, barefoot, and pregnant in Lebanon. (He's kept the veil, but has made progress on the other two points.)
So, this also creates an opening for the social conservatives in Hezbollah. This would have serious internal repercussions in Lebanon, which is overall a pretty socially-liberal kind of country, by Arab standards anyway, with plenty of women in highly visible positions (again, by Arab standards).
The Hezb keeps a notoriously tight lid on its internal doings, so it'll certainly be a while before we see any changes. A good deal will depend on who steps in. There are plenty of ranking Shi'ite clerics to choose from, who represent the whole gamut of political positions with regards to foreign policy, internal politics, and social policy. Usually the Hezb has the succession for any important position planned out in advance (for obvious reasons), but I don't know if this is the case with regards to the spiritual leader, who has a bit of a unique status—no formal powers, but enormous informal influence.
IOW, anything, or nothing, could change.
Changes are rarely for the better in the Middle East, so I wouldn't get too optimistic about this—but a possibility for change is always cause for hope as well as dread. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2006
- Messages
- 8,540
