|
Your donations keep RPGWatch running!
RPGWatch Forums » Games » Divinity Games » Divinity Original Sin » Divinity: Orginal Sin - I have finished it!

Default Divinity: Orginal Sin - I have finished it!

August 29th, 2014, 01:19
Interesting: 600-900k copies sold?

Cattletech said:
So, I geeked out and made the following estimates…

According to Steam Charts, in the last 30 days DOS has been played about 5.3 million hours on steam.

Assuming the ratio of peak players and hours played is constant, I extrapolated this backwards:
1. The area under the 'peak players' graph was 340k players x days for the last 30 days.
2. Thus, the ratio of hours played over that area is 5.3 Mil hours / 340 players*days = 15.6 kHrs / player-days
3. Applying this backward to the previous 30 days, we have another 496k player-days, so if we take the above ratio, that's another 496*15.8kHrs or 7.7 Mil hours.
4. Total hours played then would then be about 13 Million hours so far. Let's say this is with ï½±15% error because (a) the above method is rather crude (b) Steam sometimes under-reports hours played.

Now, I've also estimated the average number played per player to be between 15-20 hours. The estimate is based on:
1. Ars Technica's Steam Gauge data (has a rough pie-chart breakdown of average playtime on Steam)
2. Steam achievement percentages coupled with my estimates on how long it takes to reach each one. In particular:
- 44.6% have not found the Pyramids teleporters - this usually occurs in the first few hours of play, so these players are probably disinterested. Assumed 1.5 hrs played on average in this bracket.
- 26.1% found the pyramids, but haven't killed Evelyn yet. That means they've at least played a few hours, but probably not over 25. I assumed an average of 10 hrs for this bracket.
- 15.6% killed Evelyn, but haven't met the conduit yet. Probably played more than 8 hours and no more than 60. I assumed an average of 30 hours on this bracket.
- 5.3% have met the conduit, but haven't reached hunter's edge yet. That's at least 20 hours in, but no more than 120. I assumed 45 hours on average.
- 3.9% have arrived at Hunter's edge, but not at the Source Temple. Yadda yadda assumed 60 hours.
- 1.1% have reached Source Temple, but haven't beat the game. Assumed 75 hours. This piece of data is also backed by Larian saying it's an 80 hour game and also reports on this site.
- The rest (3.4%) have beat the game, at least once. Assumed 120 hours on average.

This adds up to 17.6 hours on average. I've thus used the range 15-20 hrs per player (i.e. about 17.5 ?ï½± 15%), which is roughly what you'd get if you slapped a 40% error margin on each individual bracket estimate and assumed they are independent error factors.

Assuming the two error factors are uncorrelated, all this roughly translates to about 750k ?ï½± 20%, or between 600-900k. Which is not far off from my previous post too, if you account for the month that has passed since

So, was I close Larian?

It's also a good time to announce since the sales rate must be dropping by now…

For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong. - HL Mencken
HiddenX is offline

HiddenX

HiddenX's Avatar
The Elder Spy
RPGWatch Donor

#21

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: NRW/Germany
Posts: 4,460

Default 

August 29th, 2014, 01:24
We know for sure after being on #1 topselling steam spot it sold much more than 500K copies, but the question is did the number reach 1 million?

Would be nice if it did. I'd just love to mock Ubi and EA subsidiary forums that you don't have to lie to your fans nor suckup to mainstream and still sell a million copies.

Toka Koka
joxer is offline

joxer

joxer's Avatar
The Smoker
RPGWatch Donor

#22

Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 6,198

Default 

August 29th, 2014, 01:45
Promised: Day/Night Schedules
Promised: Henchmen become companions and are fully fleshed out
Promised: MegaDungeon
Promised: Weather and Moon phase changes, which affect magic use
Promised: Kirill gets his own orchestra

I'm wondering which promises they actually kept. Don't get me wrong. D:OS is a decent game, but Larian didn't keep several of their promises and made very lame excuses as to why each wasn't met.

Everyone sees what they want to see, huh? I paid over $500 in funding D:OS but it doesn't blind me to the fact that they're no better at keeping promises than those American publishers you hate so much, Joxer.

'nut
crpgnut is offline

crpgnut

crpgnut's Avatar
Fantasy Novel Archmage
RPGWatch Donor

#23

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: St. Louis, Mo USA
Posts: 3,840
+1:

Default 

August 29th, 2014, 01:46
Originally Posted by joxer View Post
We know for sure after being on #1 topselling steam spot it sold much more than 500K copies, but the question is did the number reach 1 million?

Would be nice if it did. I'd just love to mock Ubi and EA subsidiary forums that you don't have to lie to your fans nor suckup to mainstream and still sell a million copies.
True but I doubt they care when they make a billion in sales of the next FPS/Acton game. I'm happy for Larian, but hoped the game would of sold more copies.

A least the cost of development was earned back with some extra change.

"We must stand strong my fellow watchers against the horde of red trolls." - Couchpotato

RPGWatch News Editor & Moderator
Couchpotato is offline

Couchpotato

Couchpotato's Avatar
LazyGamer
RPGWatch Team

#24

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Potato Land
Posts: 10,301

Default 

August 29th, 2014, 02:33
Originally Posted by crpgnut View Post
Promised: Day/Night Schedules
Promised: Henchmen become companions and are fully fleshed out
Promised: MegaDungeon
Promised: Weather and Moon phase changes, which affect magic use
Promised: Kirill gets his own orchestra

I'm wondering which promises they actually kept. Don't get me wrong. D:OS is a decent game, but Larian didn't keep several of their promises and made very lame excuses as to why each wasn't met.

Everyone sees what they want to see, huh? I paid over $500 in funding D:OS but it doesn't blind me to the fact that they're no better at keeping promises than those American publishers you hate so much, Joxer.
Keeping promises is one thing, admiting you can/can't do it to your customers BEFORE the game is released is the second thing.

Deliberate lies, scams and misleading is the third thing. That thing I hate on that one American publisher. Not all, cmon. There is only one american devil, and we know which one that is. The rest are just wannabies.

Toka Koka
joxer is offline

joxer

joxer's Avatar
The Smoker
RPGWatch Donor

#25

Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 6,198

Default 

September 2nd, 2014, 03:47
Activision Joxer?
Originally Posted by crpgnut View Post
Promised: Day/Night Schedules
Promised: Henchmen become companions and are fully fleshed out
Promised: MegaDungeon
Promised: Weather and Moon phase changes, which affect magic use
Promised: Kirill gets his own orchestra
Day/night: Failed.
Companions: Two in, two more on the way. Some day.
MegaDungeon: Failed. It left some scarring on the Phantom Forest dungeon, too.
Weather: Yeah, but it never moves.
Moon Phase: Huh?
Orchestra: No, but the folks that funded enough for the music are going to get far better. <ahem> Some day.

I don't know about "lame excuses." They just barely made the day/night cycle funding level so I'm not surprised about that. There's not much helping Kirill getting sick, either. Missing so many is a bit sad but I can understand just fine. It's extremely difficult to predict how difficult all these things will be to get right. That's why game companies don't like to promise features until the game is pretty close to publishing. The mistake was probably to make goals like that in the first place.

What'cha bet they don't do that next time?
Zloth is offline

Zloth

Zloth's Avatar
I smell a… wumpus!?

#26

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 2,847
+1:

Default 

September 2nd, 2014, 05:01
@Zloth, I'm mostly just poking at Joxer a little bit. He likes to bash Bethesda, Bioware and Electronic Arts, which are all American based companies. He's very forgiving to European houses, on the other hand. Larian isn't part of a corporation, so in that way they're indie, but this is a dev house that has been around a long time and should be able to match up one on one with the big boys.

I'm not saying they didn't either. Just that they're the same as everyone else. There are some things missing from their game that was fully expected by their stockholders (kickstarter backers) and they didn't deliver. Bethesda, Bioware and EA would be in deep shit, but Larian can get away with it because us stockholders chose a bad way to invest in the company.

'nut
Last edited by crpgnut; September 2nd, 2014 at 05:46.
crpgnut is offline

crpgnut

crpgnut's Avatar
Fantasy Novel Archmage
RPGWatch Donor

#27

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: St. Louis, Mo USA
Posts: 3,840
+1:

Default 

September 3rd, 2014, 02:10
Erm…

I hate EA. Not for it being american company, but because it's a scamming company. I said "american devil" because another doesn't exist on both america continents!

Bioware is a canadian company. At least I thought so.
Yea, it's still EA's subsidiary, whatnot and whatever. But I don't bash them often nor I bash them for everything they do. Just when they dumb down stuff and when are spineless to show the middle finger to the parent company.

My bashing on Bethesda was only because of their incapability and lack of talent to fix bugs in their recent singleplayer RPG. But check yourself what I did with Dishonored, also a game published by Bethesda. In "just finished" thread, I've put 10/10 on it. Stating publically that a game is IMO a masterpiece is bashing? Since when?

Larian could have been a company from Burkina Faso for all I care. They gave me an awsome game, patched and polished it and provided me days of fun. Did I say the game is perfect? No. But it's IMO nearperfect. Would you be more happy if I said it's mediocre? I could do that, but then I would not speak the truth.

Sorry crpgnut, but that's how things are. It's never about the country the company is in. It's about how I feel towards the product I'm supposed to have fun with. And when I'm disappointed, who do I call out for it? The publisher. It just happens that almost every single time it's EA.
Maybe something is wrong with me. And maybe the same something wrong is with many of people who voted EA for the worst company. I just wonder what that something wrong is.

Toka Koka
joxer is offline

joxer

joxer's Avatar
The Smoker
RPGWatch Donor

#28

Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 6,198

Default 

September 3rd, 2014, 03:41
IMHO, anyone who has an intense dislike for EA can't be ALL bad!!

If God said it, then that settles it!!

Editor@RPGWatch
Corwin is offline

Corwin

Corwin's Avatar
On The Razorblade of Life
RPGWatch Team

#29

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 10,570
Send a message via Skype™ to Corwin

Default 

September 3rd, 2014, 12:07
EA/Bioware deserve most of the bashing they've received in recent years.
JDR13 is offline

JDR13

JDR13's Avatar
SasqWatch

#30

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Florida, US
Posts: 18,055

Default 

September 3rd, 2014, 16:52
I have to agree with the EA/Bioware bashing, myself. They have some serious talent at these places, yet for the most part they really make poor decisions on what to do with their products.
Carnifex is offline

Carnifex

SasqWatch

#31

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Edmonton, Alberta, CA
Posts: 1,787

Default 

September 4th, 2014, 01:24
Oh, I totally agree with EA/Bioware bashing. I was singling Joxer out jokingly. I don't care what he likes or hates; I was just messing with him about the "you don't have to lie to your fans nor suckup to mainstream" part of his quote. To me, Larian is on equal footing with Bethesda as far as what my expectations are in a final product. D:OS isn't quite everything I was hoping for, but it's a decent game.

Skyrim is probably my favorite game ever, but that isn't solely due to Bethesda. The mod community gets a good little piece of the credit for all the Skyrim goodness. Of course, allowing folks to mod their game caused them not to be able to fix all of the bugs. I can live with that. If Bethesda fixed every bug but it disabled SKSE in the process, that's not a trade anyone with sense would accept, for instance.

'nut
crpgnut is offline

crpgnut

crpgnut's Avatar
Fantasy Novel Archmage
RPGWatch Donor

#32

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: St. Louis, Mo USA
Posts: 3,840
RPGWatch Forums » Games » Divinity Games » Divinity Original Sin » Divinity: Orginal Sin - I have finished it!
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT +2. The time now is 14:29.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright by RPGWatch