Demise of the Euro

HiddenX · July 20, 2012

Are we witnessing the begin of the end of the Euro and the Eurozone right now?

Or can this currency survive?

In my opion there's no chance that this currency can survive, because there are too many economies with different productivities and financial systems involved.

It doesn't help that most countries are encumbered heavily with debts for many years to come. Even the biggest economies are still making new debts year by year.

We live on a money & debt bubble that has no real equivalent value in goods, resources, immovables, valuables… . Call it the the speculator's bubble - how to create money without creation of value (net product).

My opinion: This bubble will blow up.

What do you think?

Gorath · July 20, 2012

I think the EUR will be split into a strong and a weak part when action can no longer be avoided.

hishadow · July 21, 2012

Gorath said:
I think the EUR will be split into a strong and a weak part when action can no longer be avoided.

Royal Euro and Eurovision they will be named.

akarthis · July 22, 2012

The biginning of the end begun 3 years ago, but now everything is more clear.
Up until now everything is beind done the wrong way, but there are still some hopes.
EU was a great idea, but needed some strong policies that never took form. And of course some really good politicians. Current politicians are some of the worst.

Splitting EU between strong and weak is an idea, but my opinion is that will not hold much.
Key cards are in Germany hands. To sustain the EU means lose money. To let EU fall means lose money. I think Germany is evaluating which will have the smaller damage. But the other players are getting upset and start pushing.
I know people are going to suffer but in an academic point of view is worth watching. Current decisions will be examples in future.

HiddenX · July 22, 2012

We are far away from the "United States of Europe" - I think the vast majority of Europeans don't even want a such a bureaucratic cumbersome monster confederation.

I would prefer a loose cooperation. I prefer diversity over assimilation.
A common currency ist contra-productive.

Germany can't solve the problem with money, because money is NOT the problem!
Most states have lived beyond their means for many years now. Cutting costs and don't making new debts is the only solution to this death spiral of debts.

Money can only soften the painful healing process a little bit. A permanent transfer union causes only bad blood and will kill the EU completely on the long run.

akarthis · July 22, 2012

I don't know what the majority of Europeans think. I am a supporter of EU and i know that you can't have just the good things of a union. The bad, are, also part of the deal.Though, i totally understand the difficulties of Europe.

We have to define the problem here. The debt problem is about money and only money can solve it. Now, if we want to see the bigger picture, yes, we have to find the solution in other ways. And those solutions are the real issue as it takes guts to accept them.

Corwin · July 23, 2012

The debt problem is only tangentially about money which is merely the scoring system being used. It is primarily about attitude, policies, attitude, mismanagement, corruption, and of course, attitude!! Just look at the reactions in Greece if you doubt that.

akarthis · July 23, 2012

What do you mean by "reactions"?
What you say about attitude etc, are clearly correct. But i am refering about solving the current debt problem. First you solve that(if you can
) and then you move forward trying fix the main reasons.

Eurozone problem is not just Greece. Right now Spain and Italy are the main problems. And we must not forget Portugal and Ireland. Cyprus is on the way too. Too many countries going the wrong way for a union, right?

I still believe, that right now, the only motivation that leads decisions is money, and money alone.

Alrik Fassbauer · July 23, 2012

The Euro will possibly crumble because too many hedge fonds would profit from it.

Tragos · July 23, 2012

Looks like all southerners and the Irish / Romanians / Hungarians are lazy , tax evading , early retiring scum !

"United states of Europe" only in your dreams and over my dead body

Asdraguuhl · July 23, 2012

Tragos said:
Looks like all southerners and the Irish / Romanians / Hungarians are lazy , tax evading , early retiring scum !

Tax evasion and/or early retirements aren't the reasons for the problems in Spain. It is the house market that lies at the core of the problem. It was madness in its purest form: the house prices increased at an alarming rate, far faster than the average salaries and an exaggerated amount of houses were being buiilt for the sole purpopes of speculation.

It just took a little common sense to see that things couldn't go on like this forever and that the whole real estate market would simply collapse at some point but somehow people continued with this madness. It is a simple case of greed with a touch of voluntary blindness.

GothicGothicness · July 23, 2012

I think it is quite possible the euro will stay as a currency, but Greece and Spain will probably be out, a long with some other weak economies. It only makes sense to share such a currency between countries with strong economies, and fairly similiar economical structures.

dteowner · July 23, 2012

I'm curious how y'all reconcile your amputation plan with your enlightened global thinking. After all, we all know what happens to the body part that gets amputated. Sure, the rest of the body might survive and even prosper, but at what cost?

Tragos · July 23, 2012

Asdraguuhl said:
Tax evasion and/or early retirements aren't the reasons for the problems in Spain. It is the house market that lies at the core of the problem. It was madness in its purest form: the house prices increased at an alarming rate, far faster than the average salaries and an exaggerated amount of houses were being buiilt for the sole purpopes of speculation.

It just took a little common sense to see that things couldn't go on like this forever and that the whole real estate market would simply collapse at some point but somehow people continued with this madness. It is a simple case of greed with a touch of voluntary blindness.

8 1/2 lines when you could only say neoliberalism happen

GothicGothicness : if you think that the neoliberal scum will not go after the "stronger economies" you will be very disappointed ! also you didn't mention the giant of the group Italy , when Italy gets out of Eurozone i will love to see how deep German exports will go.

dteowner : The whole eurozone thing is a scum , countries can not print money but only loan "from the markets" so "the markets" are free to pick on anyone they like.

akarthis · July 23, 2012

dteowner is right. Noone knows the cost of kicking someone out. Small or big.

By keeping Euro while some countries leave eurozone, euro itself fails. At least there are signs for that. Still, noone is sure.

Hedge funds profit more with fear of collapsing. A collapse of Euro would have global efects with unknown results for global economy. They don't want that.

Tragos, these "names" are the least funny. On the other hand, it's wrong not wanting to see the real bad elements of southern economies.

asdraguuhl, i agree with you. But, i spent a total of a month in Madrid this weekend, with almost every night going out for a drink. Still waiting for a receipt.....and i thought we were the kings in that field. What i mean is, there is always more for a country going down.

Asdraguuhl · July 23, 2012

akarthis said:
asdraguuhl, i agree with you. But, i spent a total of a month in Madrid this weekend, with almost every night going out for a drink. Still waiting for a receipt…

When you buy a drink in a pub, club or disco you never get a receipt by default, but I assume for convenience and practical reasons rather than tax evasion. In a "normal" bar, not exclusive to the night life, you do get a receipt.

P.S.

Please teach me how to squeeze one month into one weekend

.

blatantninja · July 23, 2012

One of the problems with splitting the Euro into good and bad is that there isn't that much good left! The economies are all pretty entwined and both Germany and France hold so much of the PIIGS debt that a default by those countries would have a huge detriment to them as well, as evidenced by the recent downgrading of France's debt (still highly rated, but no longer AAA).

akarthis · July 23, 2012

hehehe, i guess, drink, drink, drink. Time changes then.....

Anyway, in every bar i went to the north(Germany,Denmark, Sweden) i got receipts everywhere

blatantninja · July 23, 2012

Most bars in the US don't give a receipt unless you pay with a credit card.

Asdraguuhl · July 23, 2012

akarthis said:
Anyway, in every bar i went to the north(Germany,Denmark, Sweden) i got receipts everywhere

Some years ago, I was stationed in Munich for several months and I am certain that I have ordered some overly delicious Paulaner Weißbier in a Biergarten without getting a receipt

.

Anyway, I have been told that some businesses like bars or hairdressers do not rely on receipts but on official estimates to compute the taxes.

Fraud is certainly present in Spain and I am all for eradicating it. A German ex-colleague of mine told me that fraud and tax evasion was viewed upon very badly in Germany and highly punishable by law.

Demise of the Euro

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