Due to the thresholding effects of AC a shield might tip combat balance more than a few extra points of damage per hit... The crucial difference is most of the time that between hitting and not hitting rather than between dagger and 2H sword.
Pretty sure AC's are bugged towards the end of BG2 ToB. They pretty much hit you whatever your AC is.
In the gold box games a 2-handed sword did 1d10 against normal and 3d6 against larger than normal,which is why I pretty much always used them - unless I had a silver sword+5 and silver shield+5 from Secret of the silver blades....
From the manual:
Sword, 2-Handed 1-10 3-18 2hd fighter only