So how many predictions need to come true to not consider someone a nutjob?

History repeats itself, forgotten ?
 
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Pretty much. Ron Paul has been accurately predicting the future for decades now.
 
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Ron Paul is a scholar more than a politician.
 
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There is a saying here which goes like this : "The Prophet is not worth anything in the own country."
 
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Quite a bit of what he predicts is either extremely vague, easily predicted by anyone given when he did that speech (right before the Iraq war), or flat out wrong (inflation? What inflation?).

Sorry, while Ron Paul gets a lot of stuff right he also has some totally whacko ideas.
 
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It's not that Paul isn't smart. He is. The problem isn't that he could forsee a lot of the problems we have, its that many of his solutions aren't much better and are often far worse (like his push for the Gold standard).
 
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Damian Mahadevan said:
So surreal that someone could have predicted all this and be considered a lunatic by some people.
Click to expand...

Are you serious? You post a link to video of a PICK of Paul's predictions and suggest that it somehow makes him a prophet? Do you know how many predictions has he made in total? If you don't than you have no way of knowing if his predictions are above or below margin of error.

Great multipart podcast about predictions from "Freakonomics":
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/
You can either listen to it or click on "Audio Transcript" for the text.
 
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BillSeurer said:
Quite a bit of what he predicts is either extremely vague, easily predicted by anyone given when he did that speech (right before the Iraq war), or flat out wrong (inflation? What inflation?).

Sorry, while Ron Paul gets a lot of stuff right he also has some totally whacko ideas.
Click to expand...

He is talking about inflation when the Federal Reserve prints money for the government effectively devaluing the dollar. You dont see the inflation when buying goods inside the country but when you buy outside you country you can easily see it.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/tradepolicy/p/Dollar_Value.htm
 
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zahratustra said:
Are you serious? You post a link to video of a PICK of Paul's predictions and suggest that it somehow makes him a prophet? Do you know how many predictions has he made in total? If you don't than you have no way of knowing if his predictions are above or below margin of error.

Great multipart podcast about predictions from "Freakonomics":
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/
You can either listen to it or click on "Audio Transcript" for the text.
Click to expand...

I've only seen like 2, i cant see the others if there are any others at all. And that was the 5 minutes straight of all the predictions in a row it wasnt interrupted as far as i can tell. He only has 5 minutes to talk right?
 
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Two big mistakes : Inflation Rates as was mentioned and Iraq War surpassing WW2.

But yeah, cool video nonetheless.

And on top of that, yes many of these things could have easily been predicted, but he did it in 5 minutes, so it was quite special anyway.
 
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Pladio said:
Two big mistakes : Inflation Rates as was mentioned and Iraq War surpassing WW2.

But yeah, cool video nonetheless.

And on top of that, yes many of these things could have easily been predicted, but he did it in 5 minutes, so it was quite special anyway.
Click to expand...

He doesnt say that the iraq war will surpass ww2, he said it was the "largest since ww2", i think that means it wont be larger than WW2 but it compared to other wars since then it was the largest? Sorry my english language comprehension can be off at times.
 
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Personally, I prefer the Bible's method for assessing a Prophet; 100% accuracy or they are stoned to death!! Works for me. :)
 
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Romanian government agrees with you Corwin (to a degree):
Quote from Freakonomics podcast:
"DUBNER: But the Romanian witch industry has been under attack. First came a proposed law to regulate and tax the witches. It passed in one chamber of Parliament before stalling out. But then came another proposal arguing that witches should be penalized if the predictions they make don’t turn out to be true.

MIXICH: So if you are one of my clients, and if I’m a fortune teller, if I fail to predict your future, I pay a quite substantial fine to the state, or if this happens many times, I will even go to jail. The punishment is between six months and three years in jail."
 
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Damian Mahadevan said:
He doesnt say that the iraq war will surpass ww2, he said it was the "largest since ww2", i think that means it wont be larger than WW2 but it compared to other wars since then it was the largest? Sorry my english language comprehension can be off at times.
Click to expand...
He is still wrong Damian. Korean and Vietnam wars were on bigger scale than conflict in Iraq.
 
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