Al Qaida's standing among Islamists on the decline

Prime Junta

RPGCodex' Little BRO
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I came across this rather interesting article that claims that Al Qaida's model of global terrorism is losing out among Islamists. They're arguing that it's counterproductive and un-Islamic.

Sayyid Imam aka Dr. Fadl said:
"Oh, you young people, do not be deceived by the heroes of the internet, the leaders of the microphones, who are launching statements inciting the youth while living under the protection of intelligence services, or of a tribe, or in a distant cave or under political asylum in an infidel country.

"They have thrown many others before you into the infernos, graves, and prisons. Those who have triggered clashes and pressed their brothers into unequal military confrontations - are specialists neither in fatwas nor in military affairs."

[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7546322.stm ]

If this is true, and represents an actual trend change, the repercussions could be huge. It would mean that non-violent, political Islam is getting the upper hand. This wouldn't be really that surprising, since there are a few pretty respectable precedents for it already, whereas Al Qaida hasn't really managed to, y'know, *accomplish* much, apart from wanton destruction.

Personally, I believe that political Islam will be much more effective if it drops random terrorism and distances itself from Al Qaida and similar fringe movements. Meaning, make use of a democratic framework where it exists; attempt to create one where it doesn't and they're in a position to be a player in it.

That also means that it's gonna be a bigger challenge for the rest of us to deal with them: we can pretty much ignore Al Qaeda, other than a security problem, but a dynamic, mainstream Islamist movement out to mold society to its image will mean that there are going to be changes that we'll be negotiating and adapting to.

I'm a long-term optimist; that is, I believe that it's possible to have a society that includes both a public Eid al-Fitr sermon and a gay pride parade (though probably not the same day). It ain't gonna be easy, and it's certainly not a given that it's going to happen, but if it does, I think in the end everybody will be better off for it. Which is a fairly good argument in its favor, IMO.
 
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That would be very encouraging. I don't know that you'll ever eliminate the urge to violently redress perceived injustices (which is in no way unique to the Muslim world, although they seem, on average, to be a little more serious about it than, say, the Black Panthers), but publicly pushing that type of behavior to the fringes would have to be a huge step forward.
 
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Here's hoping...

I read something interesting somewhere (was it here?) recently that went along the lines of saying that socially-motivated guerilla/terrorist revolutions enjoy something like a 40 or 60 percent success rate while religiously-motivated ones almost never succeed. Interesting....
 
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This is both encouraging and terrifying at the same time for everything that PJ said.
 
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There's been signs of this development for some time, but the more the better:)

Regarding the long term development it is one reason I favour stronger ties between the EU and Turkey while still demanding democratic reform in that country. Close cooperation between secular, christian, and muslim democracies is the way to show the world that we at leas can tolerate and do business with each other, if not quite sing Kumbayah at the Europride together...
 
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Its an interesting developement, and Sayyid Imam wrote the theological justification for Al Quaida's activities but I'm not sure how much influence this will really have. Zawahihi and Sayyid Iman have apparently been involved in a bitter personal dispute since Zawahihi removed and altered parts of one of his books, including a critique of the jahadi movement. Its also worth bearing in mind Fadl has been in jail for 7 years now (currently in Egypt) Zawahihi has already suggested torture. Finally its worth noting that Fadl's change is on tatcis rather than goals, he still thinks the Taliban can and should win in Afghanistan and that muslims can't coexist with non-muslim governments but he's less keen on attacks on innocents and puts a number of constraints about holy war.

All that said I think its a mistake to focus too much on the religion anyway. In my view this conflict is as much political as religious.
 
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I think the change of tactics is the crux of it. Look at the Communist movements in Europe, for example. Until relatively recently, all of the Communist parties still had, as their stated ultimate goal, the abolition of capitalism and the institution of socialism as a road to Communism. However, somewhere along the line they shifted tactics -- instead of working as revolutionaries outside the system, they decided to work within the system to co-opt it. What happened instead was that the system quietly co-opted them: democracy and the open society proved the stronger.

Even in their heyday, groups like Baader-Meinhof or the Red Brigades had very little influence; they were a nuisance factor, but not a danger to the system, and they were marginalized precisely because the Communist parties ostensibly supporting the same ideology had to distance themselves from them.

I don't think there's any reason it would go otherwise with Islamist parties. I don't care what their "ultimate" goals are; if they're willing to play within the rules of a democratic, open society "in the meantime," I say let them. The meantime will prove to be a long time, and at the end of that road I bet they'll look more like the Christian Democrats than the Bolsheviks.
 
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Well I'd say at issue is the degree to which they're prepared to work with the system - from what I could see of Fadl he's currently advocating isolation or conflict (with more tightly constrained targets and methods) without abandoning the origional thesis that a 'true' musilm can't engage in political process or government.
 
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