Another flare-up: Chad. Clues, anyone?

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Prime Junta

RPGCodex' Little BRO
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Looks like another war flares up. The mess with Darfur appears to have become regional. All I've seen so far is this [ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7165181.stm ]. One thing that struck me as bizarre was the references to Chadian air attacks: I was under the impression that the Chadian air force consists roughly of one transport and two or three busted-up 1970's-vintage Russian helicopters. However, I was also under the impression that there's a French airbase in Chad, and Chadian pilots train in French planes.

I don't know much about the power relations and structures in East Africa; from what I can gather it's about as anarchic as it can get, with every strongman worthy of the name commanding a militia with an acronym to it. Is there anyone here who can clue me in? In particular, what's Chad's position on the situation? Which rebels are the Chadians pally with, if any, and who's providing the aircraft, if any? If the French are involved, does this mean a proxy war against Sudan? If so, what for? The French only tend to do humanitarian interventions in Africa if the country in question happens to be very rich in minerals or oil, and AFAIK Darfur is just about the most worthless patch of land you're likely to find anywhere.

In other words, WTF???
 
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This sounds like a bit of local squabbling. Not a surprise, given the band of thugs the Sudanese government has unofficially sanctioned in the area to do their dirty work there. Thugs are greedy by nature. Why should they give a sh*t if the cattle they want are across the border?

I wouldn't read too much into the "aircraft" description. One of the decrepit helicopters you described would be enough to qualify for a mention of "aircraft" in the report.
 
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It still seems confusing as hell. From what I've been able to piece together, there's been fighting between the Chadian government and a splinter group of some rebels calling themselves (of all things) the FUC. Presumably these rebels are based in Darfur, and the Chadians are now retaliating against them by teaming up with some (unspecified) Sudanese rebels?

If so, then yeah, it does sound like a common or garden African bush war. Those aircraft are still bothering me, though -- the best info I've dug out is that the airworthy bits of the Chadian air force consists of one C-130 and one Mi-7; neither are what you'd call ideally suited for air raids of any description -- even the kind the LTTE did on Colombo (light trainers dropping small unguided bombs on pretty much random targets causing very little damage but much fear).
 
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While I was unable to find anything on this specific story, Prime J, I'm putting down this link for you for future reference. It's an old style subscription newsletter based in South Africa, and covers a lot of African news that never makes it here(or maybe even to Europe.) Most of the front page stuff is SA-centric, but they have an Africa home that does African news by region, as well as world stuff. Right now there's a lot of coverage on the Kenya conflict, of course.
IOL Daily Newsletter
 
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The rule of local warlords makes Africa weak - plus, they are an excellent market for western gun-selling companies.

And weak regions cannot put opposition towards intruders from outside who want to exploit local ressources.

Only a company of strong African countries can be a force that is able to oppose western companies - and I believe that both the western & the eastern hemispheres do not want this.
 
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Yep-o. I still don't have a clue what this is about, i.e. whether it's a common or garden bush war, or if there are outside powers pulling the strings, and if so, who.
 
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It looks seriously disruptive, along with the Kenya fighting, for the African Union they're trying to get going--might have something to do with that.
Addis Ababa - A summit of African Union (AU) leaders shifted its attention on Friday from the crisis in Kenya to Chad, with delegates voicing fears of a major conflict that could scupper peace efforts in Sudan.

As Chadian rebels on a major offensive clashed with government forces only 50km from the capital Ndjamena, officials attending the summit in Addis Ababa held a series of special meetings.

One high-ranking AU official said that the fighting could have a serious impact on the deployment of a European peacekeeping force in Chad and of an AU-UN contingent in neighbouring Sudan's Darfur region.

"This attack means that everything is up in the air," said the official, who declined to be identified...
..The so-called "hybrid force" being set up by the AU and UN in Darfur also faced fresh challenges, as the Chadian rebel attack was launched from Sudan, raising the prospect of instability along Darfur's border.

"We need to have a reduction of the tensions between Sudan and Chad. As long as we have these growing tensions, the efforts to achieve peace in Darfur will be severely limited," the top UN envoy in Sudan, Jan Eliasson, said here on Thursday.

"Darfur and Chad cannot be divorced," he said...

European ambassadors attending the AU summit also held a special meeting regarding Chad on Friday, after an opening day dominated by the crisis in Kenya...
...Topping the agenda of the AU summit's second day were discussions on an audit ordered a year ago into the 53-state body's management.

The pan-African organization has been criticized over unwieldy travel expenses for its members and badly-managed resources.

Delegates were also expected to decide whether or not to elect a new chairman for the AU commission, the body's main executive branch.

Charismatic former Malian president Alpha Oumar Konare has been at the helm of the commission since 2003 and Gabon's foreign minister, Jean Ping, is the favourite to take over but AU sources said the vote could yet be delayed.

The AU's institutions are modelled on those of the European Union, with a commission wielding most of the power and a rotating presidency.

The decisions on the AU's internal structure and leadership come as the body seeks to acquire credibility on the international stage and take responsibility for solving its own problems, free of international pressure.

"Our continent's future is in our hands," Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete said on Thursday after being chosen as the AU's new chairman.

Besides Darfur, the AU has also undertaken a major peacekeeping operation in war-torn Somalia, but the deployment has been slow and those troops already on the ground have failed to curb the violence.
Click to expand...

Though it seems like instigating a war solely to make the organization look bad would be pretty farfetched, it certainly could be to some elements' interests to emasculate a central governing body.

Also, Darfur looks like it may have something to do with things and just reading wikipedia about the conflict there was pretty appalling. I doubt there's a simple explanation.
 
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It wouldnt surprise me if the French step in and put an end to this affair as soon as they've evacuated most European civilians from the country. It also doesnt seem like this is a popular uprising but rather a coup attempt with the aim of replacing one corrupt thugocracy with another, so it would probably be possible for the French to at least pacify the situation.

Speculation here is that Sudan is supporting the rebels, as serious unrest will prevent the EU peacekeepers that were about to go to the Chad-Sudan border from moving in. These forces were scheduled to go pretty soon, but the deployment has been postponed as the EU doesnt have a mandate to get involved in the fighting (only to protect refugee camps on the border).
 
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