Middle East News 2

That got a little press a few weeks ago. As best as I can tell, it was a sellout so the government could concentrate on India rather than their northern provinces. Give away a region to buy time for a wobbling Pakistani government to get their legs under them. We'll probably regret it in the long term, although I wouldn't be completely surprised if our planned excursion in Afghanistan somehow spills into the region a few years down the road.

Afghanistan isn't called the graveyard of empires for nothing.

Want my take on it?

(1) Don't go there.
(2) If you're already in there, get out.
(3) If you absolutely have to go there, go in fast, do your thing, and get back out.

That's all. And that's what the USA should have done, post 9-11 -- gone in, smashed the Al Qaeda training camps, captured or killed Bin Laden, and gone out again. And left a little note on the wall saying that they'll be right back should they attempt to set up the camps again.

I understand why you guys chose to stay -- partly in order to keep the Taliban down and stop the Qaeda from setting up shop again, and partly out of humanitarian motives, to set up a decent government in Afghanistan. That's just not a practical proposition. The only person in history who has ever managed anything like it was Alexander of Macedon, and Bush was no Alexander of Macedon -- and, as much as I like the guy, neither is Obama.

Prime Junta said:

Afghanistan isn't called the graveyard of empires for nothing.

Want my take on it?

(1) Don't go there.
(2) If you're already in there, get out.
(3) If you absolutely have to go there, go in fast, do your thing, and get back out.

That's all. And that's what the USA should have done, post 9-11 -- gone in, smashed the Al Qaeda training camps, captured or killed Bin Laden, and gone out again. And left a little note on the wall saying that they'll be right back should they attempt to set up the camps again.

I understand why you guys chose to stay -- partly in order to keep the Taliban down and stop the Qaeda from setting up shop again, and partly out of humanitarian motives, to set up a decent government in Afghanistan. That's just not a practical proposition. The only person in history who has ever managed anything like it was Alexander of Macedon, and Bush was no Alexander of Macedon -- and, as much as I like the guy, neither is Obama.

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I am definitely biased towards us staying there and setting up working democracy though, after personally meeting Afghans who are risking their lives to fight the Taliban I don't think there's anything that would make me change my mind on this situation. I'm unwilling to sacrifice any group of people to the barbarism that is Sharia law. We were doing fairly well in Afghanistan until we stopped paying attention to it. When NATO started taking over security for specific provinces is when the situation started to go down hill. Additionally, since Pakistan has been unwilling or unable to control its side of the border and we aren't really all that keen on invading the FATA areas to take out the Taliban we're just allowing the enemy to have a safe haven.

Rithrandil said:

I am definitely biased towards us staying there and setting up working democracy though, after personally meeting Afghans who are risking their lives to fight the Taliban I don't think there's anything that would make me change my mind on this situation. I'm unwilling to sacrifice any group of people to the barbarism that is Sharia law. We were doing fairly well in Afghanistan until we stopped paying attention to it. When NATO started taking over security for specific provinces is when the situation started to go down hill. Additionally, since Pakistan has been unwilling or unable to control its side of the border and we aren't really all that keen on invading the FATA areas to take out the Taliban we're just allowing the enemy to have a safe haven.

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If I believed that bringing democracy -- or even *any* halfway-decent system of government -- to Afghanistan, I'd be all for it.

But I don't. The country just doesn't have the conditions for it, and creating those conditions would take a couple of generations at least -- and I don't believe you, me, or anyone other than the Afghans themselves have an obligation to stick it out that long. Don't forget that for most of the country, Shari'a represented an *improvement* -- that's how bad it is.

Kabul is a bit of a different matter, of course; it's almost a part of civilization -- but there's no way it can stay that way if the rest of the country doesn't want to play along. And they don't.

My "man on the inside" says that the US is setting up for a major equipment rollout in Afghanistan. John Deeres, that is. Evidently, it's been decided that those folks won't ever come around until they stop growing opium on every hillside, so the next deployment is a bunch of Red Man chewin guys in overalls from Iowa (not literally...).

I wonder what they'll provide for them to farm instead of opium? Simply plowing the fields over will only make for a lot of pissed-off Pashtu, and we know where *that* leads. If they don't get some alternative livelihood pronto, that will blow up big-time.

dteowner said:

My "man on the inside" says that the US is setting up for a major equipment rollout in Afghanistan. John Deeres, that is. Evidently, it's been decided that those folks won't ever come around until they stop growing opium on every hillside, so the next deployment is a bunch of Red Man chewin guys in overalls from Iowa (not literally...).

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I've heard the same thing from certain officials. There is/was actually some serious talk about just purchasing all the poppy the farmers grow in Afghanistan because it would cost us less than we are spending now on eradication efforts. I've also heard about heavy subsidies to farmers as well to ease the transition from poppy to...non-poppy.

poppy being drug plants, right ? opiate based ... ?

Yup, that's what you make opium from. You slash the seedpods and then collect the dried sap (or gum) as it seeps out -- that's opium.

I thought morfine and maybe other drugs use those plants as a base ?
Why not let medical and pharmaceutical companies buy from them, it'll reduce the chances of them being bought on the black market and it'll be cheaper probably than buying from western countries. Not only that, it'll make it a legitimate industry and it won't require as many people going from poppy to non-poppy through means of incentives and the like...

Pladio said:

I thought morfine and maybe other drugs use those plants as a base ?

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Correct.

Why not let medical and pharmaceutical companies buy from them, it'll reduce the chances of them being bought on the black market and it'll be cheaper probably than buying from western countries. Not only that, it'll make it a legitimate industry and it won't require as many people going from poppy to non-poppy through means of incentives and the like...

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The pharmaceutical industry can't absorb all that opium -- they already have legitimate sources for it, and in any case the consumption isn't on the same order of magnitude as the illegal opiate market.

Of course, if we simultaneously legalized heroin everywhere, that'd sort that problem right out. There might be some side effects, though...

Prime Junta said:

I wonder what they'll provide for them to farm instead of opium? Simply plowing the fields over will only make for a lot of pissed-off Pashtu, and we know where *that* leads. If they don't get some alternative livelihood pronto, that will blow up big-time.

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I would assume some sort of corn/wheat/soy foodstuff approach (which will be far less profitable), but I didn't get that level of detail. I have no idea what will grow fairly successfully in that neck of the woods, so hopefully someone is packing seeds appropriate to the Afghan weather. Knowing our usual approach, Congress probably authorized rice for the Sahara and cactus for the rainforest and the Quartermasters will send it all to Antarctica.

dteowner said:

I would assume some sort of corn/wheat/soy foodstuff approach (which will be far less profitable), but I didn't get that level of detail. I have no idea what will grow fairly successfully in that neck of the woods, so hopefully someone is packing seeds appropriate to the Afghan weather. Knowing our usual approach, Congress probably authorized rice for the Sahara and cactus for the rainforest and the Quartermasters will send it all to Antarctica.

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I imagine wheat would grow there. It's an adaptable plant. Some of the Aztec corn hybrids might also work. The problem is that few crops make the kind of money the heroin trade produces--aside from maybe the coca plant, which I doubt they'll be introducing. Hemp would probably work(the rope kind) I don't think there's enough rainfall there for coffee or cotton or rubber or sugar, which are somewhat bigger money makers, so until the food crisis really starts to pinch and pure food crops become more profitable who knows.

Of course, the US could just contract to buy up whatever they grow at a comparable price until food starts commanding a better price in the world market, which eventually with populations growing and crop areas shrinking, it surely will. It would still be a lot cheaper than twenty years of occupation and war.

Prime Junta said:

...the consumption isn't on the same order of magnitude as the illegal opiate market.

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Are you sure? I heard people from non-government organisations building schools etc. in Afganistan say exactly the opposite. They said that only political/lobby reasons prevent the solution of simply buying all stuff grown in Afganistan for medical purposes.

bkrueger said:

Are you sure? I heard people from non-government organisations building schools etc. in Afganistan say exactly the opposite. They said that only political/lobby reasons prevent the solution of simply buying all stuff grown in Afganistan for medical purposes.

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I heard something similar from people involved in the situation on the government/think tank level. Although I think they did say it would flood the market so they would in all honesty probably end up burning a good deal of it.

Burning was tryed over and over and over again and, after whoever does the burning moves on, farmers go right back to grow their poppies. They don't have much of a choice if they want to make a living. Unless NATO troops are permanently placed near every field (Afgan troops are not up the task) they are a nuisance rather than a deterrent. So yes, buyout of the crops seems like the only realistic solution to me.

Prime Junta said:

If I believed that bringing democracy -- or even *any* halfway-decent system of government -- to Afghanistan, I'd be all for it.

But I don't. The country just doesn't have the conditions for it, and creating those conditions would take a couple of generations at least -- and I don't believe you, me, or anyone other than the Afghans themselves have an obligation to stick it out that long. Don't forget that for most of the country, Shari'a represented an *improvement* -- that's how bad it is.

Kabul is a bit of a different matter, of course; it's almost a part of civilization -- but there's no way it can stay that way if the rest of the country doesn't want to play along. And they don't.

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I pretty much agree with you - there is no easy/quick solution to the Afghan problem. I'm biased towards staying for personal reasons. I've met Afghans who would be the first up against the wall when the Taliban retook the country. I've heard stories about one man's father (in his late 60's) having to flee into the hills and hide out for three days because the Taliban raided his village, killed all the tribal elders, and re-imposed Sharia law. I met an Afghan only a few years older than I who worked as a translator for ISAF forces.

After hearing the accounts I have and meeting the people I have, I don't think I could ever be proud of my country again if we abandoned these people. I also think it'd set a horrible message and make it much less likely that local populations would be willing to support the U.S. for fear we'd cut tail and leave them to die if we thought the situation was too difficult.

Maybe emotions/personal attachments are getting the better of my pragmatism and judgment here - and this is coming from someone who subscribes to Realist international theory.

zahratustra said:

Burning was tryed over and over and over again and, after whoever does the burning moves on, farmers go right back to grow their poppies. They don't have much of a choice if they want to make a living. Unless NATO troops are permanently placed near every field (Afgan troops are not up the task) they are a nuisance rather than a deterrent. So yes, buyout of the crops seems like the only realistic solution to me.

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I meant they have considered buying the crop and burning whatever they couldn't sell for pharmaceutical purposes.

Apologies Rithrandil. A bit of misunderstanding on my part

The current mess is pretty much a direct result of the fight agains the Russians followed by everyone doing their best to forget about the country afterward pull out now and Al Queda will set right back up again and be twice as hard to displace again as none of the locals would want to risk helping a second time. Equally the military isn't going to win this one either, if you want a success you'll just have to keep pooring money and people into it and mantain a big enough militray precence to keep everyone safe (which is probably about twice whats there now).

As for crops, the transport infrastructure is god-awful, poppy is probably the only crop they can produce that'd be compeditive on the international market. I had a job with a trade financce firm a decade ago that looked at a deal to export a tomato processing plant from Italy to neighbouring Tajikistan because they couldn't get the fresh tomatoes anywhere - saddly for the locals the risk, logistics and economics all made it impossible. Not sure what sort of sustaniable economy they could support - Afghan rugs do well but thats all I can think of. edit - they used to have a tourist industry but I can't see that taking off until they get the security under control.