Very important point ... and one I think is very much missed too often. Once you add on any benefits, insurance, an office with basic utilities and hone/internet, getting hardware and software for employees, and so on, that first year has to be close to $1M for an 8 person team.
I'm not saying it's trivial or easy - and it would require a certain kind of individuals. This wouldn't be a regular type paid job with insurance, it'd be from the heart and on faith. You'd be working with your own personal computers and most likely from the home of a team member. Also, I'm by no means talking about an A+ title - I'm talking about a low-to-middle market modest title - especially for the first outing. Something like Fallout - only with a higher resolution and more than 256 colors. You see, everyone is obsessing over 3D graphics with a ton of effects - but they're forgetting that 2D graphics can still look very good - as long as it's done with reasonable competence. It's MUCH easier to make the kind of step-by-step engine I'm making look good, than if I were to attempt a real 3D engine. That would look like crap - because I'm no 3D artist. Again, it's about not being boxed-in by the standards of today. Another advantage of any kind of 2D tile engine is that it will perform well on pretty much all hardware.
There are tons of 3D pre-rendering artists out there who're willing to prove their worth, and because of the 2D tile-engine - it's feasible for one person to do the art with the tools available today.
I'm not wrong to suggest almost every member of RPGWatch would pay for a new Fallout, only with higher resolution and more colors? If the gameplay was evolved - you'd be able to live without cinematics and even the top quality voice acting. Remember this is a 20-30$ title.
Anyway, the 8 person thing was just a number. With the tools available today, even 3-4 people could make something really special, so long as they stay within their restrictions.
What I'm really talking about are people who're willing to work for basically nothing while doing their first project. Without investors, they'll need some kind of job on the side - like I have whilst working on my own pet project.
But then again, if an investor was able to look past getting a big return - and was at heart interested in actually making a great game, then things might not be so grim. But you don't go to a bank or an EA style publisher for that - for they are basically institutions of greed. You have to look around for the rare breed of wealthy and imaginative people - whether actual publishers or not. They're not exactly abundant - but I have no doubt they exist if you look hard enough.
It'd probably be a crappy short-term deal, but in the long-term - after being established - profit would be within reach. Especially if you do a few expansions on a 6 month basis - and with the right tools, this is very feasible. Certainly for the kind of game I have in mind.
So long as you don't make crappy products and stick to genuinely improving your game with expansion content - you'll be building a name for yourself in the process.
This is very much like the old style "basement development" that everyone claims is dead and gone. But with the tools of today - like XNA from Microsoft - you can do really amazing things within a relatively short period of time. The market might be primarily casual - but that still doesn't "magic away" the hundreds of thousands of hardcore players still around.
The problem is - again - one of attitude, and naturally investors are more inclined to oppose the idea of "art" over "business" because they're only there to get a big profit, if at all possible. But it's sort of a disease to focus only on the short-term gains. If you're willing to take a risk and invest in something that could be profitable in the long-term, then maybe it's not such a bad deal afterall. The problem is you HAVE to accept that profit will always be modest. Then again, profit is profit - and we've seen what happens to ever expanding empires throughout history, haven't we.
Keep in mind that this is coming from a danish guy - and our culture isn't quite as saturated with the capitalistic obsession and mindset present in the US. We're getting there - sadly - but because of our system of welfare and absence of real poverty, we're not quite so worried about making it big. This is just my subjective perception, of course, and there are plenty of exceptions.