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Default Understanding China, our new world leader

February 11th, 2012, 13:55
In a decade, China will become the new leader in the world economy. Fast forward another generation and India passes the US which is now dwarfed by China. Up to now we have had a developed western country as a leader, what changes can we expect when we for the first time in history become number two? Part of our survival is to understand the new era. For a long time the Chinese have understood both their own and our civilization where we only understood our own.

Martin Jacques explains some of this in the TED presentation "Understanding the Rise of China".

For an exact date on when Asia will take over, one can have a look at Hans Rosling's presentation Asia's rise: How and when?.

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An eye for an eye, and soon the whole world is blind. - Mahatma Gandhi
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February 11th, 2012, 15:42
Perhaps then, the U.S. population will wake up and swallow their medicine with long-needed cuts to medicare, medicaid, social security, and defense spending. But I doubt it.

I've heard recent reports that China surpassing the U.S. in GDP will happen as soon as 2017. Nevertheless, our ethnocentric views in the U.S. won't change until countries the world over liquidate their dollar assets and we experience hyper inflation. …but that in itself is not overly likely any time soon as the Chinese depend on our gluttonous consumerism to sustain their incredible growth. They can't jettison the dollar until they have a third party to offload their crap onto.

So, the US and China are partners in crime for the foreseeable future.
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February 11th, 2012, 16:12
When people in general feel the effects (like hyper inflation) there will be a stage of scapegoating from various chauvinistic groups. Easy solutions will be proposed, voted into power and begin to invade the country. There might be a civil war and the US falls into obscurity. The nation have all required for this process; the divide, the groups, the failed economy, the nationalists, the paranoia, as well as the lack of protection; a dysfunctional school system, lack of unitedness etc.

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An eye for an eye, and soon the whole world is blind. - Mahatma Gandhi
The world is my country. To do good is my religion. My mind is my own church. This simple creed is all we need to enjoy peace on earth. - Thomas Paine
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February 11th, 2012, 16:39
Having worked with Chineses on some project for works, just expect more decadence and stupidity. Their production management are the equivalent of the one used in the fifties.

No productivity.
Full of bugs and lateness.
Incapable of managing problems and surprise.
Incapable of making schedules, they will always said everything is done if you ask them when they haven't started working on it.
And most of all, incapable of inventing things…they only copy and they actually can't copy correctly.

It's scary!
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February 11th, 2012, 16:52
JemyM, you're a swede. China already own you!
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February 11th, 2012, 17:40
Originally Posted by hishadow View Post
JemyM, you're a swede. China already own you!
Chinese and Japanese were introduced as subjects in Swedish schools 2-3 years back. It used to be french and german.

Mankind must put an end to war or war will put an end to mankind. - John F Kennedy
An eye for an eye, and soon the whole world is blind. - Mahatma Gandhi
The world is my country. To do good is my religion. My mind is my own church. This simple creed is all we need to enjoy peace on earth. - Thomas Paine
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February 11th, 2012, 18:01
But than there is no such thing as "Swedish exceptionalism"
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February 11th, 2012, 20:48
Originally Posted by Drithius View Post
Perhaps then, the U.S. population will wake up and swallow their medicine with long-needed cuts to medicare, medicaid, social security, and defense spending. But I doubt it.
I doubt it too.

Here in the U.S. we seem to have reached (or are very damn close to) a tipping point where more people consume Federal tax dollars than contribute to it. With so many people who do not have a 'horse in the race' we are clearly circling the drain of what happens when the electorate can buy themselves 'stuff' paid for by votes.

About 2 years ago, I was hoping that this wasn't true and that we could still turn things around. But I think the stage is nearly set for the U.S. to enter its own flavor of some kind of socialism/communism hybrid. An unfortunate course that could last many generations. Like those born in Russia at the dawn of the Bolshevik movement enjoyed the 'prize' of living out their lifetime under what evolved into the USSR.

Where I live in Oregon, 1/5th of the people here are on some kind of government handout, not even including those who are on 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. And this population size is growing.

I don't know what the answer is anymore. It seems like I can't go more than 2 seconds without hearing or reading about some kind of corruption in our government or on wall street or the banks. It seems this is a cancer that's been growing for a long time and it might be too little too late to do much about it.

If I'm right but there is no wife around to acknowledge it, am I still right?
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February 11th, 2012, 21:25
Out of all possible outcomes socialism/communism hybrid seems the most unlikely. There are much bigger chances for Laissez-faire capitalism or Populism
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February 11th, 2012, 22:34
Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
Out of all possible outcomes socialism/communism hybrid seems the most unlikely. There are much bigger chances for Laissez-faire capitalism or Populism
Everybody from us guys on an internet gaming forum to so-called 'experts' give their best 'guesses' about what transformations western civilization may be undergoing.

You may be right. I may be right. Everyone may be wrong. We'll see.

If I'm right but there is no wife around to acknowledge it, am I still right?
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February 11th, 2012, 23:22
Originally Posted by Drithius View Post
…the Chinese depend on our gluttonous consumerism to sustain their incredible growth. They can't jettison the dollar until they have a third party to offload their crap onto.

So, the US and China are partners in crime for the foreseeable future.
My brother lived in Shanghai 5 years and says the debate on when to switch from their current exportation economic model to a home market economic model (like the US) has started.

Not a debate about whether, but when. Growing numbers are saying the time has come.

With the euro threatening to collapse lately it is likely they moved even closer to that conclusion. The last thing they want is to depend exclusively on US demand. If Europe fails to remain an alternative, their own market will take its place.

But things aren't so easy there either. They need 8% growth to sustain employlment for the masses migrating to the cities. They haven't finished properly copying from the West. There was a train wreck with their copy of the high-speed train, Airbus just got there and their copies of German cars do still look like soap boxes. I'd hate to be Chinese if they start copying French nuclear power plants.

It may be that their lack of quality control + rising social demands get the best of them before they overtake anything.

Anyway the Japanese were announced as future world leaders as well and it didn't turn out quite like they expected. Predicting the end of western civilization sells paper.

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Last edited by Charles-cgr; February 11th, 2012 at 23:48.
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February 12th, 2012, 00:00
Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
Out of all possible outcomes socialism/communism hybrid seems the most unlikely. There are much bigger chances for Laissez-faire capitalism or Populism
My vote is on national socialism. Yes, seriously.

Mankind must put an end to war or war will put an end to mankind. - John F Kennedy
An eye for an eye, and soon the whole world is blind. - Mahatma Gandhi
The world is my country. To do good is my religion. My mind is my own church. This simple creed is all we need to enjoy peace on earth. - Thomas Paine
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February 12th, 2012, 01:00
Originally Posted by Charles-cgr View Post
They haven't finished properly copying from the West. There was a train wreck with their copy of the high-speed train, Airbus just got there and their copies of German cars do still look like soap boxes. I'd hate to be Chinese if they start copying French nuclear power plants.
That's the problem with copying… It kills innovation but it also means that you end up with a product without understanding how it was created.

It may be that their lack of quality control + rising social demands get the best of them before they overtake anything.
Well, there were fears that "Arabs" will overtake everything with their petrodollars. And, later, there fears that Japanese will. But, in a strange way, we are back to Feudal times… Back than merchants didn't care who their king was as long as they were making money. And peasants didn't care because one king would oppress them as much as another…
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February 12th, 2012, 01:09
Well here are a few things people should know…
First let me start with I work hand and hand with machine and fab shops though not as many as there use to be…but they are starting to make somewhat come back the last few years as people are getting sick of things that are not made to our standards. There is a real lack of control on china products though they are starting to improve on this.
There is a machine called a walter grinder(5 axis cnc). They cost around 150,000.00 and there are used for maching things like drill bits, endmills etc a very highend machine…rumour is that china just bought 120 of them to start improving that type of product coming out of there.

Next point,
People wanted lower lower prices the walmarts of the world have brain washed people into thing this….
To get these lower prices people gave up there higher paying factory and manufacturing jobs to get them. When someone is willing to do it for a dollar a day and you make 20 plus and hour it doesn't take long to figure out you won't have a job for much longer…
I think it was 4 years ago or so China was asked which county was their largest trading partner. It wasn't a country it was Walmart…97% of all products sold in a walmart is made in a country without a high standard of living.

25 years ago you could buy a pair of jeans lets say for 50.00 and as long as you took some care of them they would last you years…but since that time we as people in this side of the world saw that we could buy 3 pairs for the same 50.00 though after a few washs they were crap..More is better I guess….greed is better…
I have for years said I wish nothing but the best for my children and if they are smart enough and the drive to become a doctor lawyer etc I would help with there schooling…but lets face fact we need good paying jobs in factorys as we all can not be doctors etc….
Until we stop buying their products we can never change this…until as a mass we realize that we don't need 50 pairs of pants and maybe 4 or 5 quality ones are better …
I could go on…but the writing is every where..
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February 12th, 2012, 01:23
Originally Posted by CelticFrost View Post
25 years ago you could buy a pair of jeans lets say for 50.00 and as long as you took some care of them they would last you years…but since that time we as people in this side of the world saw that we could buy 3 pairs for the same 50.00 though after a few washs they were crap..More is better I guess….greed is better…
While I agree with the most of your post but this bit has actually nothing to do with Chinese does it? This is capitalism at its best! Why produce more expensive but much long lasting (and reparable) consumer products when you can produce plenty of cheap (and disposable) crap instead?
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February 12th, 2012, 01:53
Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
While I agree with the most of your post but this bit has actually nothing to do with Chinese does it? This is capitalism at its best! Why produce more expensive but much long lasting (and reparable) consumer products when you can produce plenty of cheap (and disposable) crap instead?
You may be right and yes everyone has a choice at least in the short term in countries that call themselfs free. But I stand by my points and no it is not china's fault at all. It is ours…though we are brought up now of days that choices we make have no repercussions….

Forwarding blame on to others is everything….and look at the shape of the states now of days. It isn't their fault the housing market crashed???Really they were taking 2x4 mortgages where you pay only on the interest…and instead of worrying about the principle alot of them were out keeping up with everyone else…then when they came do…hmmmmmm oh wait we don't have the money…So lets blame the government…now I am not say that Bush jr deregulating banking laws didn't let it get out of control…but it still has to be put on the person or people to show self control….
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February 12th, 2012, 03:29
I am not one to pass a chance to blame Bush Jr. but let's remember that deregulation drive was started in a big way by Billy "Boy" Clinton.
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February 12th, 2012, 07:59
I'm moving to Canada

'nut
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February 12th, 2012, 09:39
Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
While I agree with the most of your post but this bit has actually nothing to do with Chinese does it? This is capitalism at its best! Why produce more expensive but much long lasting (and reparable) consumer products when you can produce plenty of cheap (and disposable) crap instead?
Communism isn't well known for putting out the highest quality products. Chinese quality deficit may even be closely related to the fact they've only just emerged from communism recently.

Think of any quality brand - none of them come from Cuba or the former Soviet Union.

People don't necessarily choose quantity over quality but they (we) were long mislead into thinking made in China was just cheaper. Realization that it came with a drop in quality have led a lot of people to back away from chinese imports. Hence some growing difficulties in China today.

There was a detailled article in my local paper about the opportunities in Canada. I might just consider moving there too

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February 12th, 2012, 12:13
Originally Posted by Charles-cgr View Post
Think of any quality brand - none of them come from Cuba or the former Soviet Union.
And none come from pure capitalism which market is often described as vulgar or plastic.

Quality is a very difficult to handle because quality is based on essential, existential, spiritual emotions which aren't in the rational region of the brain. Thus its very difficult to describe why we see quality through language (which is formed by the rational brain).

Creativity is a very subjective drive in which someone channel what they subjectively enjoy, feel or think into something that is loaded with meaning, something that others who think and feels the same way can relate to.

Problem arise when someone try to reason themselves into what the civilians or customers want rather than let creativity flow. In planned economy products are decided on a functional basis by someone who is unfit to judge what's functional. For instance, those who judge are often too far away from those who need the product and silencing of speech make them effectively blind.

In capitalism things are estimated in quantified gain rather than quality gain, often because the former is easier to quantify. Often what worked in the past become the rolemodel for the next batch of products instead of using creativity to produce something new.

Mankind must put an end to war or war will put an end to mankind. - John F Kennedy
An eye for an eye, and soon the whole world is blind. - Mahatma Gandhi
The world is my country. To do good is my religion. My mind is my own church. This simple creed is all we need to enjoy peace on earth. - Thomas Paine
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