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Default 8.3% Unemployment Lie

February 18th, 2012, 12:51
If you live in the US and if anyone has been paying attention around the world for the last couple of years you know the country in on a huge decline. I wont go into huge details but lets face the facts Unemployment is at an all time high.

This is old news from February 8 but I still laugh at people who accept everything in the news.

Here an opinion piece from an political analyst -


The most recent unemployment number is a total lie, and that lie was repeated all over the mainstream media (MSM). Two sins were committed here, and I don’t know which one is worse. The report was a sham, and the MSM reported that information without a single question about its accuracy. In a story carried across the MSM spectrum, the Associated Press said, “In a long-awaited surge of hiring, companies added 243,000 jobs in January – across the economy, up and down the pay scale and far more than just about anyone expected. Unemployment fell to 8.3 percent, the lowest in three years.” The report went on to say, “At the same time, the proportion of the population working or looking for work is its lowest in almost three decades. The length and depth of the recession have discouraged millions of people from looking for jobs. The better news of the past couple months has not yet encouraged most of them to start searching again.” (Click here for the complete AP story.)

Here’s a headline for you. If it were not for accounting gimmicks and what the government calls “seasonal-adjustments,” the unemployment rate would have gone up, not down! In his latest report, economist John Williams from Shadowstats.com said, “January’s unadjusted unemployment rate rose to 8.8% . . . The only difference between those numbers and the headline 243,000 January jobs gain and 8.3% unemployment rate, is how the seasonal adjustments were applied. There are serious issues with the current quality of those adjustments, and extremely small distortions in those seasonals can make big differences in the resulting headline data.”

As far as “discouraged” workers who are not looking for a job, that is total rubbish put out by the government. The real story is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) simply has stopped counting more than 1.2 million of the unemployed in its report Friday. Williams goes on to say, “The issues here suggest that the headline 8.3% unemployment for January has moved well outside the realm of common experience and credibility, into the arena of election-year political shenanigans.” Williams is such a gentleman. Please take into consideration the government’s “official” or “headline” number is only based on people being out of work for 6 months or less. If the unemployment rate was calculated the way BLS did it in 1994 and earlier, the unemployment and underemployment would be 22.5% (according to Shadowstats.com.)

A recent report by a D.C. consulting firm estimates about 3 million long-term unemployed have been dropped from the unemployment statistics in the last few years. (Click here for that story.) The Obama Administration has predicted the “official” unemployment rate would be below 8% by the November 2012 election. Heck, if you stop counting enough people, you can get the unemployment rate down below 5%, and that will make the 15 million or so unemployed feel really good. Taxpayers are paying to be essentially hoodwinked by the BLS, and the mainstream media never questions these numbers.

Meanwhile, on the very day the fantasy unemployment numbers were released, it was reported that planned layoffs surged. Reuters reported last Friday, “Employers announced 53,486 planned job cuts last month, up 28 percent from 41,785 in December, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. January’s job cuts were also up from the same time a year ago, gaining 38.9 percent from the 38,519 layoffs announced in January 2011.” (Click her for the complete Reuters story.) With unemployment going up to 8.8% (without the government’s accounting gimmicks), this jobs report is especially dishonest, but almost every month the government lies to America about the so-called “recovery.”

Jim Willie at Goldenjackass.com says the government lies about the economic statistics to hide an economy teetering on the edge of an abyss. In his latest post, Mr. Willie (who holds a PhD in statistics) said, “The entire system requires the constant banter of recovery, legitimacy, hope, and integrity. All are sorely lacking, glaringly lacking. The economic numbers have few honest series of data. My favorite honest series remains the income tax payroll withholdings, which screams of chronic recession in basic tones. . . . The US economy remains the weakest of all industrialized nations. Its corruption remains the highest in data reporting. See American Airlines for job cuts. See the Manhattan banking sector for job cuts. See state and local governments for job cuts. See college and university construction projects for job cuts.” (Click here for the complete Jim Willie report.)

The Federal Reserve just announced an extension of 0% interest rates through 2014. The Fed didn’t do this because it thought the economy was going great guns. You can say whatever you like about the Fed (I think it should be audited on a regular basis), but those folks are not stupid. For everybody to believe the economy is surging forward, you have to also believe the Fed and its hundreds of economists got it all wrong. Last Friday, the government reported an improvement in unemployment when, in fact, it jumped up, which is why I call Friday’s jobs number an 8.3% unemployment lie.
Here let me simplify it. Crumbling economy,smart (in their own way) politicians and businessmen who try to prop up the system (and yet do nothing to end the corruption and bad decisions creating the problem) while profiting from its abuse.

It’s like a kid who steals cookies from a jar on the kitchen counter and wonders later why there are no cookies left for dessert. Sure the kid was smart enough to figure out how to reach the jar on the counter despite the difficulty, but afterward these skills are no where to be found in how to fix his lack of cookies later, instead they are wasted on covering up his crime so mommy doesn’t find out…

It doesn't take a genius to understand more than a quarter of our population is without a job. There not looking, not interested, and there is none available. Its only going to get higher. Yet are economy couldn't be better from from what are elected officials say.

Forecast says things are going to get worse not better people.So go ahead and vote for more lairs with no solutions in sight and believe everything is going to be fine.

Now go read the other topic called Understanding China, our new world leader.

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February 18th, 2012, 13:18
Unemployment -> fewer money -> no functioning inland markets
Imho.

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February 18th, 2012, 14:09
Meanwhile, your BNP per capita is higher than ever before. So you don't really need those currently not working to work - you have more than you've ever had anyway.

When your BNP per capita is decreasing you're in decline, regardless of your unemployment rate.

Übereil, the danger of unemployment is overrated

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February 18th, 2012, 14:39
Originally Posted by Ubereil View Post
Meanwhile, your BNP per capita is higher than ever before. So you don't really need those currently not working to work - you have more than you've ever had anyway.

When your BNP per capita is decreasing you're in decline, regardless of your unemployment rate.

Übereil, the danger of unemployment is overrated
Tell that to the millions out of work and cant get a job after years of searching. Do you honestly believe every report that comes out. Its also called the rich spending more while more get poor. You need to look around and interact with people to see what is happening.

Its sign of are times and we seriously have no one to blame but ourselves for allowing politicians and businessmen to ruin things.

Seriously though China is they next superpower the US is slowly decaying from the inside. Maybe we should ask for another handout again.

http://www.popmodal.com/video/6549/S…on-dollar-Debt

A little comedy thrown in with the truth.

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February 18th, 2012, 14:52
Originally Posted by Couchpotato View Post
Tell that to the millions out of work and cant get a job after years of searching.
High unemployment isn't a sign of a crumbling economy. Coupled with poor economic distribution it might cause social problems, though, which I'd imagine those millions are suffering from.

Which I'd tell them if I ever was to meet them: it's not that the economy is weak that's causing them problems.

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February 18th, 2012, 17:35
Jim Willie at Goldenjackass.com says the government lies about the economic statistics to hide an economy teetering on the edge of an abyss.
What an amazingly authoritative reference.
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February 18th, 2012, 18:32
This article is a full of smoke and mirrors. Like Übereil have said: US economy isn't declining. It is actually recovering slowly. But, because of declining industry, lack of investment in infrastructure and relocation of jobs abroad it is so called "jobless recovery". I am not saying that it's not a problem but that it's a different one.
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February 18th, 2012, 18:47
Originally Posted by hishadow View Post
What an amazingly authoritative reference.
Well lets see you do better than just trolling.

Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
This article is a full of smoke and mirrors. Like Übereil have said: US economy isn't declining. It is actually recovering slowly. But, because of declining industry, lack of investment in infrastructure and relocation of jobs abroad it is so called "jobless recovery". I am not saying that it's not a problem but that it's a different one.
Hm its recovering doesn't look it all all from the lower class perspective.

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February 18th, 2012, 19:02
No argument for me here! But isn't that laissez-faire capitalism wet dream? With so many people competing for work places you can start dictating wage levels and working conditions.

Here is an UK example of how "seemed like a good idea at the time" idea can turn sour in practice: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17086526
Last edited by zahratustra; February 18th, 2012 at 21:24.
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February 19th, 2012, 12:17
Originally Posted by zahratustra View Post
This article is a full of smoke and mirrors. Like Übereil have said: US economy isn't declining. It is actually recovering slowly. But, because of declining industry, lack of investment in infrastructure and relocation of jobs abroad it is so called "jobless recovery". I am not saying that it's not a problem but that it's a different one.
It largely depends which state you're in. Some are doing much better than others.

Michigan seems to be stuck in some kind of time warp. The economy and jobs situation here is just as bad as it was 4 years ago. I'm just thankful that this is going to be my last Winter here.
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February 19th, 2012, 13:40
Tuned unemployment statistics are nothing special. Every country does it. You can make them look better by simply changing the definitions.

The rate of not-working adults who would be able to work is much higher. Millions of people are parked in other statistics as "no longer seeking work", "receiving social support", etc.
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February 19th, 2012, 22:37
Assuming you actually LISTEN to the news, none of what this guy is saying is anything new at all. It's not a matter of the news media lying, it's a matter of the listeners/readers not bothering to pay attention.

There are tons of ways you can measure unemployment. The general idea is that you want to take the number of people who aren't working and divide by the number of people that should be working. It isn't even remotely that simple, though. What about people who just rely on their spouse for income? What about people that work part time? What about people who have two jobs - are they double employeed? What about people who are underemployed? What about people who think they are underemployed but actually have pretty cruddy skills and are really in a job that's appropriate for them? What about people spending full time taking care of a loved one? What about people who are in jail? What about people who are getting their income illegally? What about people who are rich and just don't need to work?

This is seriously complex stuff. When that happens, it's normally best to figure out some fairly sane rules and then just stick with them for as long as you can. Because if you change the way the numbers are counted every six months then nobody is going to have a clue what they mean. (Just don't keep them for too long. See how the USA's poverty line is calculated for a good example of that.)
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February 19th, 2012, 22:48
You are right Zloth but, unless somebody does their own calculations on unemployment, economy, crime (etc), you are presented (at the very least) with one set of data by government and another by opposition. And how many people are prepared to do their own maths?
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February 19th, 2012, 23:04
The current calculation method simply isn't able to account for extensive long-term unemployed. It's not a problem we've had since the 20's. As it stands, it favors Obama to cling to the inadequate model, so obviously he will.

And really, if I was sitting at the helm of an extremely sick consumer-driven economy, I'd be blowing smoke up everyone's butt just like Barack is.

Sorry. No pearls of wisdom in this oyster.
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February 21st, 2012, 14:45
As gas and oil prices are steeply rising now, that is what will drive the next downturn and more unemployment cycles are on the horizon.
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February 21st, 2012, 15:27
Originally Posted by Couchpotato View Post
If you live in the US and if anyone has been paying attention around the world for the last couple of years you know the country in on a huge decline. I wont go into huge details but lets face the facts Unemployment is at an all time high.
I'll be the first to agree that the reality is worse than the data they release, but unemployment is NOT at an all time high. In the Great Depression, it got as high as an estimated 25% at the worst point, and that's not even counting the fact that most families only had one working parent.

The highest actual measurement topped out at just over 16% in 1939.

Things aren't great, but they aren't near as bad as they have been.

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February 21st, 2012, 15:29
Originally Posted by JDR13 View Post
It largely depends which state you're in. Some are doing much better than others.

Michigan seems to be stuck in some kind of time warp. The economy and jobs situation here is just as bad as it was 4 years ago. I'm just thankful that this is going to be my last Winter here.
Where you headed?

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February 21st, 2012, 15:48
Originally Posted by blatantninja View Post
Where you headed?
Hawaii eventually.

But for now, it looks like I'm heading back to Florida. I'm going to try to stay here through the summer though.
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February 21st, 2012, 17:22
Originally Posted by blatantninja View Post
I'll be the first to agree that the reality is worse than the data they release, but unemployment is NOT at an all time high. In the Great Depression, it got as high as an estimated 25% at the worst point, and that's not even counting the fact that most families only had one working parent.

The highest actual measurement topped out at just over 16% in 1939.

Things aren't great, but they aren't near as bad as they have been.
Zloth really hits the nail on the head… You can't compare the numbers because the government has changed how it calculates unemployment.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where

The above is as official as it gets,

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. For instance, beginning in 1994, the CPS estimates reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey. (For more information on the CPS redesign, see Chapter 1, "Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey," in the BLS Handbook of Methods.)
The following is a more accurate representation:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/implie…s-30-year-high

@ JDR welcome to back to Florida… Not much of an improvement over Michigan.

I shouldn't complain as I'm gainfully employed, however Florida has it's own issues.
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February 21st, 2012, 17:29
Germany has currently a similar problem with unemployment statistics, by the way.

“ Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius – and a lot of courage – to move in the opposite direction.“ (E.F.Schumacher, Economist, Source)
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