RPGWatch Forums
Page 1 of 2 1 2

RPGWatch Forums (https://www.rpgwatch.com/forums/index.php)
-   Off-Topic (https://www.rpgwatch.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=8)
-   -   Extreme Weather (https://www.rpgwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48064)

HiddenX July 15th, 2021 22:29

Extreme Weather
 
Germany was hit by severe floods yesterday:
loading…


Experts say the jetstream is slower these days due to climate change, so that extreme weather (rain, heat, storm) can happen more often and can stay longer at one place.

A reminder: Air that is 1° warmer, can hold 7% more water vapor (steam) .

I feel sorrow for my fellow citizens who lost their homes or even their loved ones :(

Ripper July 15th, 2021 22:31

Very sad. I think at least there are more people now that are getting the idea.

HiddenX July 15th, 2021 22:42

I'm protesting for years against increasing floor sealing and building houses near rivers in floodplains. But politicians learn slowly and strong economic growth is still more important.

These events cost a lot of money. Nature protection saves the the climate, saves the planet, saves the animals and us humans as well.

SleepingDog July 15th, 2021 23:33

It is sad but what is worse is that I think that we will need something that is bigger and badder in terms in human tragedy before the majority accept that major change is needed.

This is not just the politicians fault. If the vast majority of people started voting Green (as in political party) then the politicians would soon change. I noted in a local by-election(the UK) the Green Party got less than 4% of the vote cast.

People do not like change especially if it affects them directly. See how the other countries are reacting to the "Green Plan" from the EU.

My only consolation is that I will be dead, from old age, before the worse of Climate Change hits.

Here's hoping I am very badly wrong and we get Climate Change Control/ Reversal sort out within the next ten years.

Redglyph July 16th, 2021 00:12

Belgium got hit pretty badly too these last days. Hope you're safe, hang in there!

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 01:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiddenX (Post 1061648103)
But politicians learn slowly and strong economic growth is still more important.

Baffling concept to me. Politicians are your neighbors with a job in council, municipality, county, town, development office etc.

They don't have magic powers or awareness. They weigh out the pros and cons based on advice from your other neighbors who demand more housing and your other neighbors that run construction and landscaping and cleaning and babysitting services and approve what the majority wants.

If they don't… then all the neighbors boot that person out and vote in their other neighbor that will listen to the majority of them.

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 01:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by SleepingDog (Post 1061648111)
It is sad but what is worse is that I think that we will need something that is bigger and badder in terms in human tragedy before the majority accept that major change is needed.

This is not just the politicians fault. If the vast majority of people started voting Green (as in political party) then the politicians would soon change. I noted in a local by-election(the UK) the Green Party got less than 4% of the vote cast.

People do not like change especially if it affects them directly. See how the other countries are reacting to the "Green Plan" from the EU.

My only consolation is that I will be dead, from old age, before the worse of Climate Change hits.

Here's hoping I am very badly wrong and we get Climate Change Control/ Reversal sort out within the next ten years.

Everyone wants someone else to be impacted and someone else to pay for it. Human nature in a nutshell.

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 01:39

On the whole notion of Climate action… I'd support anything that can prove a tangible benefit and not essentially be a cash grab or extra tax.
Don't get me started on how govs spin 'green jobs' for stat purposes and placating.

Ripper July 16th, 2021 01:43

Holy Climate-Skepticism Triple Post, Batman! :p

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 01:44

Mobile. Edits are harder and every time I change cell towers my broswer makes me sign in again… sorry.

Hey. I don't see any skepticism above with regards to climate. Just how people act!!!

Ripper July 16th, 2021 01:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom (Post 1061648131)
Mobile. Edits are harder and every time I change cell towers my broswer makes me sign in again… sorry.

Hey. I don't see any skepticism above with regards to climate. Just how people act!!!

Fair enough - you just seemed a bit keen! :p

Hurls July 16th, 2021 03:15

Sorry to hear that. One prediction made re climate change was that hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones would probably get fewer but bigger, due to higher temperatures mean more energy in systems, particularly ocean temperature increases. There has also been proposals for a higher level of hurricane (category 6).

Initial analysis in Australia last year (sorry can’t find source) agreed with prediction with frightening accuracy.

Now, I know correlation isn’t cause, but as part of my PhD I did a chunk of statistics and the analysis stood up.

Hurls July 16th, 2021 03:23

Oh, more important my sympathy to everyone affected.

Regarding building close to rivers etc., the insurance industry in Australia about 10 years ago became more granular. For example, a low lying set of street numbers might have house insurance premiums up to five times higher than houses in the SAME street but in a higher section. Same is true for bushfire likelihood, proximity to sea shorelines etc. etc. This has changed some developments (FYI for our aged Queenslander, this was driven by the Brisbane floods).

I had to endure a two hour lecture from an actuary when I was consulting to an insurance company board here in Australia about the topic. I felt like one of those nodddy dogs you see on cars parcel shelves.

Carnifex July 16th, 2021 03:26

I spent many years ducking tornadoes in Maryland, then over a decade in Canada evading prairie storms and blizzards, now four years going on ducking hurricanes. Be prepared, watch out for family and neighbors, and always have a towel handy, two if possible!! I don't think the weather anywhere is likely to improve in our lifetimes.

Redglyph July 16th, 2021 11:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom (Post 1061648127)
Baffling concept to me. Politicians are your neighbors with a job in council, municipality, county, town, development office etc.

They don't have magic powers or awareness. They weigh out the pros and cons based on advice from your other neighbors who demand more housing and your other neighbors that run construction and landscaping and cleaning and babysitting services and approve what the majority wants.

If they don't… then all the neighbors boot that person out and vote in their other neighbor that will listen to the majority of them.

But isn't that what he said?

Politicians are elected for a short period, they'll favour anything that works within that period to increase their chances or the chances of their party for the next term. Long-termed objectives like not stupidly building in floodable areas or preserving green areas in towns and cities does not fit well in that agenda, as you say, people who vote for them are short-sighted.

There must be a long and grinding work of educating and convincing enough people so they understand the necessity of long-termed goals, if not for their sake, at least for their children's. And whose role is that, if not the politicians'? It should be their moral duty, even if they're not in the green party, but it's a very slow process to get there.

Hastar July 16th, 2021 13:45

We're getting 2 inches of rain here in Ohio today. That's on top of all the rain we've had in the last week. It feels like Florida here with all the damn humidity and heat. In my 51 years, I've not seen many (if any) all-day downpours in July.

Ripper July 16th, 2021 13:51

The situation in Germany is shocking.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57858829

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 15:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redglyph (Post 1061648165)
But isn't that what he said?

I read his statement literally. "Politicians learn slowly and economic growth is more important." Its not politicians that learn slowly. Its the majority. Politicians literal job is to do what the majority wants. Thats exactly how democracy works.

Civic planning builds in green spaces and floodable areas. Members of the local area are generally elected (not even party based, but individuals) to maintain the civic rules of an area. When enough individuals in an area vote that a civic rule changes, it gets changed. Nobody intentionally builds in a high risk zone. Mitigation is planned, previous floods are mapped and measured, estimates on chances are made.

Things like "100 year flood plains" are a best guestimate based on old data and most cities are running out of room for the new citizens that have just as much right to live in a house as the old citizen so they make risk based decisions and build in previous floodzones.

Nobody with an existing house would give it up to turn it into 5 mini apartments for the new citizens unless it was worth it for them. This limits the choices of where to build and how to accommodate the citizens that all have an equal vote.

I'm just saying that politicians are not mystical gods able to see the future and change the publics mind nor are they the devil intentionally sowing chaos or making bad decisions. Politicians are literally one of you with a role in local government.

Ripper July 16th, 2021 15:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom (Post 1061648172)
Politicians literal job is to do what the majority wants. Thats exactly how democracy works.

I think somebody better tell them that. :p

But seriously, I do think that's an extremely idealised picture of how things work. If we look at major policies that majorities actually want, very often our politicians definitely do not make it their job to deliver them.

We often have a choice between viable candidates that are marginally different, but ultimately are going to serve interests that are often very much in conflict with the majority will - we get a choice of which topping we'd like on the iceberg, but we're still getting the iceberg.

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 15:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripper (Post 1061648173)
I think somebody better tell them that. :p

But seriously, I do think that's an extremely idealised picture of how things work. If we look at major policies that majorities actually want, very often our politicians definitely do not make it their job to deliver them.

We often have a choice between viable candidates that are marginally different, but ultimately are going to serve interests that are often very much in conflict with the majority will - we get a choice of what topping we'd like on the iceberg, but we're still getting the iceberg.

Don't confuse the abomination that is party politics at the top level with local and civic government.

Dont' confuse what vocal and insistent groups want with majority, regardless of how much you agree with them.

Everyone likes to assume that what they want is what the majority wants, but thats not the case.

Ripper July 16th, 2021 15:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom (Post 1061648175)
Dont' confuse what vocal and insistent groups want with majority, regardless of how much you agree with them.

Everyone likes to assume that what they want is what the majority wants, but thats not the case.

I don't - I look at data. Both things I approve and disapprove of would be done if politicians actually thought their job was to deliver on the policies the majority wants. But that's really not what they do - our democracy is a lot more complicated than that.

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 15:57

Love to see how you know what 'the majority' want with data.

Also, I think you are missing my primary point.
You keep referring to 'them' as this completely separate group. 'Them' is one of you!. Aside from high level party politics (which we are NOT discussing), local elected and civic officials are literally your neighbors and can be replaced by a vote.

Don't lump all of politics into one unfixable bucket and just wish it were better. Start with what you can control. The majority DOES control their local government.

Ripper July 16th, 2021 16:21

Well, hold on a second - the discussion here is about the failure of the political response to climate change, in which you made the statement: "Politicians literal job is to do what the majority wants. Thats exactly how democracy works." My point is just that I think that's naive and simplistic. In the first place, many of the local politicians I know of govern with a plurality of votes, not a majority. I think the accurate statement is that a politician's job is to get a plurality of votes in order to execute their agenda.

I do understand how local politics and its representatives work - I deal with them quite often. I'm always in favour of local political engagement, and I'm not "lumping all politics into one unfixable bucket". What I'm saying is the idea that a plurality elects their representatives (at any level) is very different from the idea that politicians consider it their job to do what the majority wants once they're in office.

In terms of determining the population's views on things, I look at research and polling from Pew and suchlike, the same as most public bodies do. I think, if we imagine a system where all policies were decided by direct referenda rather than representation, we would see very different outcomes. I'm not suggesting that as a solution, but I am saying that there is a serious disconnect between what people can vote for, and what they would actually like to see. And I would suggest, that's a big part of why we're seeing the rise of anti-democratic populism, in all its forms. Though that's really getting into P&R stuff.

HiddenX July 16th, 2021 16:22

In Germany 'Die Grünen' the Greens have a big chance to lead the government this September (after the elections). They are currently the second biggest party (20-25%), but I think they will rise after these events.

Pladio July 16th, 2021 16:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiddenX (Post 1061648181)
In Germany 'Die Grünen' the Greens have a big chance to lead the government this September (after the elections). There are currently the second biggest party (20-25%), but I think they will rise after these events.

That would be a first, right ?

Redglyph July 16th, 2021 16:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom (Post 1061648172)
I read his statement literally. "Politicians learn slowly and economic growth is more important." Its not politicians that learn slowly. Its the majority. Politicians literal job is to do what the majority wants. Thats exactly how democracy works.

That's a part of their job, they present a programme that they claim they will fulfil, and people mostly vote for the one that correspond to their needs and ideals. Whether they actually put a lot of effort to fulfil it is another matter entirely.

Of course, this is further hindered by the almost inevitable coalition that will take place (at least that's the case here).

But they have other tasks to perform in their role, they must manage the day-to-day requirement of a village/town/city with a lot of common tasks that are not part of their political agenda. If they only made what people wanted them to make, it would be a catastrophe, people as a group are stupid, it's a proven fact, they are not able to plan ahead, they are not able to think for the others either. Those common tasks would never be done or at the very best, we would only be reacting to events instead of anticipating them.

So they don't really do what the majority wants, and they must do other things as well. That's what brings us back to what I wrote earlier, and what politicians must learn.

HiddenX July 16th, 2021 16:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pladio (Post 1061648182)
That would be a first, right ?

On the Germany level yes - but since 2011 the Green Winfried Kretschmann is leading the government of the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as Ministerpraesident. He's very popular and successful.

Wisdom July 16th, 2021 17:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiddenX (Post 1061648185)
On the Germany level yes - but since 2011 the Green Winfried Kretschmann is leading the government of the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as Ministerpraesident. He's very popular and successful.

I wish them success but I think they have a very hard road ahead even if they get into power. The flexibility of the Greens has never ever been better in Germany from what I can see. Any party that runs on the basis of literally stating they will never work with another party is virtually doomed to fail. Goverments still need collaboration to function. Greens appear to have come leagues from their old stance. I like it.

I haven't been to Germany since 2019 and I'm not a citizen but for the first time in their history I think Greens might even be united with themselves.

I'm just glad they've opened their eyes to a viewpoint other than Joschca Fischer. You can't have a dictatorship manifesto and expect to be voted in by a very mixed democracy base.

Alrik Fassbauer July 16th, 2021 18:56

The town where I live in was hit quite hard.
However, there are towns in which complete houses do. not. exist. anymore.
Tiny rivers have becomefloods ! FLOODS ! TINY rivers !

Of an older town a superior at work said : Its ancient/antique center does not exist anymore.

I have seen photos of flooded towns - of trucks beimg almost completely under water.

The newspaper had a story - and I do fully believe that this is true after what I've seen myself and in the news ! - of a few people stuck in an elevator inside of a flooded building meanwhile the water was rising. The newspaper article said that they already had the water up to their chin ! The firemen used "strong pumps" to get the water away from then and then cut holes into the top of the elevator to get those people out !

You can see photos with using the search expression "flut Ahrweiler" in a search engine, this is one of the towns hit the most by this flood !
I heard there are also videos of that flood out there, but I haven't seen them yet.

You can see a video showing a serious overview here : https://www.ardmediathek.de/video/br…TM2ZGIzNjc3OQ/

Ripper July 16th, 2021 18:58

One of the things I would consider is to start moving to higher ground. Not that we're all going to be flooded like this tomorrow, but I think that property in certain areas is going to start becoming highly undesirable a lot sooner.

Alrik Fassbauer July 17th, 2021 12:25

The Celts - I think now - knew why they were building their towns mainly on higher ground …

Hastar July 17th, 2021 12:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripper (Post 1061648203)
One of the things I would consider is to start moving to higher ground. Not that we're all going to be flooded like this tomorrow, but I think that property in certain areas is going to start becoming highly undesirable a lot sooner.

There have been studies in the U.S. on where to buy property in the future because of climate change. Madison Wisconsin was #1 on the list. The Great Lakes region was rated highly because of the fresh water and northern location. Vermont, New Hamshire, and Maine were also towards the top of the list.

Criteria were droughts, wildfire, hurricanes, access to fresh water, and flooding.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate…eather-events/

Pladio July 17th, 2021 13:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripper (Post 1061648203)
One of the things I would consider is to start moving to higher ground. Not that we're all going to be flooded like this tomorrow, but I think that property in certain areas is going to start becoming highly undesirable a lot sooner.

There are some amazing houses near where I live and they're relatively cheap. But they're in floodplains…

My wife says no [emoji16]

Ripper July 17th, 2021 13:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hastar (Post 1061648287)
There have been studies in the U.S. on where to buy property in the future because of climate change. Madison Wisconsin was #1 on the list. The Great Lakes region was rated highly because of the fresh water and northern location. Vermont, New Hamshire, and Maine were also towards the top of the list.

Criteria were droughts, wildfire, hurricanes, access to fresh water, and flooding.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate…eather-events/

Yeah, makes sense - I'm sure real estate folks are thinking and planning for this. I think that's where there is a bit of hope - if sooner rather than later people start to realise, "Hold on… the money might get wet!"

Carnifex July 17th, 2021 17:44

The Rockies might get invaded shortly. Look at all that high ground, and since winter's are practically non-existent anymore, you don't really need to fret the cold anymore.

SleepingDog July 17th, 2021 17:53

Federal Act on greenhouse gas emissions
 
I will start by admitting that I do not understand the context of what I am about to say. The Swiss political system has referendums which the voters vote in and Parliament then "enacts".

Federal Act on greenhouse gas emissions - it's target is reported to be to reduce CO2 (and other Green House gases) emissions to 50% of the 1990 level by 2030. It is planned to use Tax Policy to achieve this. Note that this has been passed by the politicians.

In June 2021 the "Preliminary results" from the referendum ( don't know what this means - anyone know?) was that nearly 52% of the votes were to repeal the Act. Roughly 3.2 million voted in a country with approximately 5.5 million voters. From a Uk perspective that's a decent turnout.

There are two thoughts I have. Firstly, Climate Change Reversal is for every-one's benefit. Secondly CCR will not impact, in terms of costs, evenly. Unless we are prepared to shared the costs equitably then at best many will "drag their heels" and at worse there will be open sabotage.

Alrik Fassbauer July 17th, 2021 18:06

According to this article https://www.ksta.de/kultur/berichter…heit--38913282 a photo from an affected town was printed in the New York Times and in the Sun and in other newspapers (Swiss, Nederlande …). I even found the article by the Sun : https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/156164…-worst-floods/
"Thousands of people missing" regarding Germany is vastly overrated, though.

Moriendor July 17th, 2021 18:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiddenX (Post 1061648181)
In Germany 'Die Grünen' the Greens have a big chance to lead the government this September (after the elections). They are currently the second biggest party (20-25%), but I think they will rise after these events.


That was a few weeks ago. Current polls have the CDU (the current government) at around 30% and the Green party has dropped to 20%.


The chancellor candidate for the Green party Annalena Baerbock has made many mistakes in the past few weeks:


- She received extra income in the thousands of Euro (more than 25K Euro) that she did not previously declare
- Her CV contained many critical faults and inaccuracies (as a regular employee anywhere she would have been fired for sure). She had to correct her CV many times. It is obvious that she pimped her CV to make herself appear more educated and experienced than she really is.
- She wrote a book (well, or had someone write it for her) full of plagiarized quotes without giving proper credit or references. She handled the accusations very poorly by denying plagiarism outright and only then, when the evidence was overwhelming, she blamed it all on her co-writer (or ghost writer more like).



The Green party likes to think of themselves as a moral authority over us lowly inferior plebs so all of this is definitely a pretty embarrassing series of faux pas.


In addition to that, Baerbock has further embarrassed herself massively on quite a few occasions. In a Bundestag (parliament) speech in May she accredited the invention of the social market economy to the SPD (Social Democratic Party).

It is basic education and common knowledge that the chief architect of the social market economy is Ludwig Erhard of the CDU.


All of this has caused the Green party polls to crumble from a neck to neck race with the CDU (which had its own share of embarrassments) down to the current standings of ~20% Green party vs. ~30% CDU.
The only reason the Green party is not even weaker is the massive media support. The vast majority of German media are avid supporters of the left and of Baerbock.



It remains to be seen if or how much the current events will help either party. The CDU candidate Armin Laschet is the prime minister of the federal state of Northrhine Westfalia which has been hit hard by the floods. If he manages the crisis well then the Green party might not profit as much as some may be hoping now.

Ripper July 17th, 2021 18:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by SleepingDog (Post 1061648315)
There are two thoughts I have. Firstly, Climate Change Reversal is for every-one's benefit. Secondly CCR will not impact, in terms of costs, evenly. Unless we are prepared to shared the costs equitably then at best many will "drag their heels" and at worse there will be open sabotage.

Yes, the questions of how to approach it, and who shoulders the costs, are right at the heart of it. It seems this particular bill, proposed in the midst of the pandemic, essentially said, "How about be we put surcharges on fuel, and increase the price of food, to meet our arbitrary target?" To which the Swiss public said, "How about fuck off?"

But I think we take the wrong message if we view this as, "See - people don't really want action on climate change." There needs to be huge investment in sustainable alternatives before we start deterring the production of CO2 by shafting the little guy.

HiddenX July 17th, 2021 18:58

@Moriendor
I don't know why so many people like Laschet. IMO he's an average politician, very catholic, very industry friendly and has no vision for the future. His speech skills are very poor as well.

Baerbock made a few minor mistakes, compared to Laschet's bad Corona or brown coal policies it's nothing.


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 02:28.
Page 1 of 2 1 2

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by DragonByte Security (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2021 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2021 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright by RPGWatch