RPGWatch Forums - View Single Post - The Witcher 2 - 1M Sales, 4.5M Pirated?
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December 1st, 2011, 01:02
Originally Posted by RampantCoyote View Post
But the thing these numbers do reveal is just how rampant piracy is.
But they don't - the numbers used were rough and highly inaccurate guesstimates so they tell you nothing about "just how rampant" it is. I think people tend to see numbers in an article and presume they're meaningful when in many cases, such as this, they're pretty meaningless. The true figures could be anywhere from a couple hundred thousand to 9 million easily enough - depending on how many downloaders actually complete downloading, actual download times, and also other channels of transfer such as IRC.

Originally Posted by azarhal View Post
*Way of speaking, 1 seed/leech doesn't equal one full download. Also, torrent isn't the only place to download stuff illegally making "estimating" this a nightmare and equivalent to pulling numbers out of your ass.
Yes. This.
I'm not arguing piracy isn't rampant - I'm arguing that the figures and estimates provided off the top of the interviewee's head are borderline meaningless. Luckily those figures were, more or less, not pertinent to the point they were making.

I can only volunteer this anecdotal evidence (which I share on an upcoming Matt Chat interview): Immediately after the pirated copies of my game appeared on the net, my sales dropped in half. And stayed there. You can see the trend take a steep dive and never recover. Maybe that would have happened anyway, but it's suspicious.
That sort of sharp drop after initial sales pretty much describes everything from video game sales to ticket sales for first-run films in theaters. That includes games with pirated copies available before release (as they often are for console games.) Again, piracy likely does effect sales but it is a mistake to conflate natural sales trends with the perceived effect of piracy. If the sales of every other media product ever are any indication - it is not a "maybe" that it would have happened anyways but very much to be expected.
Last edited by jhwisner; December 1st, 2011 at 01:17.
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