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Default What are you reading ?

August 1st, 2008, 19:17
I thought it was interesting that the CIA report estimates the probability of a hot war between two or more great powers as less likely than ever. I tend to agree; war in the 21'st century is more on the model of Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, or Somalia than what we've seen before.

I think the one "doomsday" scenario that's conceivable enough to merit serious consideration is a collapse of the global ecosystem due to runaway climate change. It seems that most climatological models give a roughly 1-5% probability of the world's average temperature rising by 10-20 degrees Centigrade, which would be genuinely catastrophic -- the most populous regions today would become uninhabitable, and the rise of countries like Brazil, India, and China would be cut short as billions would die and tens of millions more would become refugees. It's a low probability, but still high enough that we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand. I have rolled 00's on d100 at inopportune moments…
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Prime Junta

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