Atrachasis
Watchdog
- Joined
- July 23, 2007
- Messages
- 119
Correct. Mutations are random, and there's no guarantee, considering how quickly the virus mutates that we won't see a more dangerous variant.
After all two of it's sieblings, the original SARS and the MERS virus have a lethality of correspondingly 10% and up to 30%. Fortunately, they did/does not spread as easily as the bugger harassing us now. Yet.
pibbur who is a bit troubled by this
You are of course correct in that a more dangerous variant could arise by chance. This could, for example, happen if a mutation that increases lethality happens to coincide with another one that increases transmissibility. However, that would be a coincidental effect, while off the top of my head I cannot think of many mechanisms that would actively select for greater lethality. Any more lethal strain arising by chance would also need an edge to transmissibility in order to outcompete all its brethren.
I'm just speculating here, but I'd guess that being able to reproduce more rapidly in the upper airways immediately after infection would be what would have the biggest effect on transmissibility, but at the same time, this would probably increase the chance of triggering the immune response before the virus gains a foothold in the lung, which might help reduce the severity in most cases. Such a mechanism, if it is more than speculation, would actually favor an anticorrelation of transmissibility and lethality.
So while a more aggressive strain that also has enhanced transmissibility is something that's certainly in the realm of the possible, I'm not seeing any active selection mechanism that would make me expect such a combination beyond the pure coincidence of two traits acquired by unrelated mutations.
But of course, the more of the buggers there are in the world, the higher the chance of a such a coincidental mutation becomes, so it's in the best of our own interest not just to get vaccinated ourselves, but also make sure that developing countries get sufficient vaccine supplies and logistical support.
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2007
- Messages
- 119