Realms Beyond - An Adventurer’s Tools

Originally Posted by griniaris
Will this game done, even with no crowdfunding campaign success?

I've backed a ton of games, and if this one fails on Kickstarter it would be a massive surprise. Normally a game which is around 25% in the first 48 hours will fund. Normally a successful project gets around 40-50% of its funding in the last 72 hours. The only game I supported that had a relatively bad last 72 hours was The Bard's Tale 4, and that was because InXile gave a free game to anyone who pledged in the first 48 hours. From my experience I'd bet Realms Beyond gets about 150% of what its asking for, and that is probably somewhat conservative.

Kicktraq is projected about double the goal amount, although I haven't found that to be a particularly accurate tool. I'll go in on it if they ever provide a PayPal option.

Originally Posted by rjshae
Kicktraq is projected about double the goal amount, although I haven't found that to be a particularly accurate tool. I'll go in on it if they ever provide a PayPal option.

Yeah I think Kicktraq projections only become accurate within the final 2 days of a campaign, if that. They range has already changed from €97K to €150K. Still, it's fun to look at graphs.

I believe Ceres said they'll add a Paypal option as soon as the KS reaches the goal.

The problem with Kicktraq is that their prediction model doesn't consider the typical bathtub curve for the pledges.

Originally Posted by Morrandir
The problem with Kicktraq is that their prediction model doesn't consider the typical bathtub curve for the pledges.

I don't get that impression. Their predictions don't track with a linear fit, so clearly they expect a rise toward the end. But a Swiss team apparently built a more accurate modelling tool:

https://www.popsci.com/article/scien…ject-will-bomb

Too bad their site went down.