Baldur's Gate 3 - Something's Brewing (but not today)

I just saw an interesting video on metacritic and review scores in general:


It correlates the best selling games (on wikipedia) and best rated games (of metacritic). Or rather it shows there is not that much correlation (26% overlap).

A fun fact is that over 50% of the sales come from just a small number of sequels and franchises. You know the ones I'm talking about.

The video even goes much more in-depth.

Originally Posted by JDR13
Also, don't dismiss user-scores from one place and then list user-scores from another just because it seems to better support your argument. The users on Steam are no more or less reliable than anywhere else. In my experience, there are just as many, if not more, trolls and fanboys on Steam.

I'm not a huge fan of Steam user scores either (I think we may have discussed this before), but recently I've come around to the fact that they're a hell of a lot better than Metacritic user scores:
(1) You only get a vote if you've bought the game which eliminates pure trolls, "ballot stuffing", bots, etc
(2) You can only vote up or down, no numeric scores, so the weirdos scoring a game 0 or 10 aren't overwhelming the votes of the people who are giving the game legitimate inbetween scores.

Still, even if you're going to use the lower end of scores for DKS and the higher end for the D:OS games, it still doesn't support your comment that the sales, reviews, and popularity were "absolutely terrible" compared to D:OS1 and D:OS2. You were obviously exaggerating whether you intended to or not.

Eh I think low 70s to low 80s, when it comes to review scores, is a much different world from the low to mid 90s, and the sales numbers are completely different worlds too. Maybe "absolutely terrible" was a little bit of exaggeration, I'm OK with it if you want to remove the word "absolutely" and we'll just call it "terrible"

Originally Posted by Stingray
That's what people said when Bethesda ruined Fallout, but it didn't stop them

I see you are a man of distinction and taste as well.

Originally Posted by Stingray
I'm not a huge fan of Steam user scores either (I think we may have discussed this before), but recently I've come around to the fact that they're a hell of a lot better than Metacritic user scores:
(1) You only get a vote if you've bought the game which eliminates pure trolls, "ballot stuffing", bots, etc
(2) You can only vote up or down, no numeric scores, so the weirdos scoring a game 0 or 10 aren't overwhelming the votes of the people who are giving the game legitimate inbetween scores.

Nah, it's the same core group of people, and I'm not sure why anyone would be naive enough to think that simply purchasing a game eliminates the possibility of being a troll. It's safe to assume that the vast majority of reviews on Metacritic, for non-controversial games like these, are just as legit. The only difference with Steam is that it shows the user's play time which only makes it even easier to spot the people who are full of shit, and there are TONS of people on Steam who are full of shit - as is evidenced by the reviews from those with 0.2 hours of play time, etc.

Originally Posted by Stingray
Eh I think low 70s to low 80s, when it comes to review scores, is a much different world from the low to mid 90s, and the sales numbers are completely different worlds too. Maybe "absolutely terrible" was a little bit of exaggeration, I'm OK with it if you want to remove the word "absolutely" and we'll just call it "terrible"

You have an interesting definition of terrible if you think 81% (vs 92) is terrible. I doubt many would agree, but to each his own.

Originally Posted by Stingray
Owners of the game on Steam (SteamSpy range):
Divinity II: 500K-1M (this is after almost 10 years and being sold for as little as $2 on Steam)
D:OS1: 1M-2M
D:OS2: 2M-5M

These numbers are incorrect and misleading. You completely forgot that Div II was released at the time where boxed games were the norm! Div II was published in a lot of countries in boxed editions without Steam! If it still sold 500K-1M on Steam then together with boxed version it would be at least 3x more! And there were more releases: Div II, addon Flames of Vengeance, then Div II DKS and probably 1 more complete edition.

Swen himself said in some interviews that Div II sold almost as much or slightly more than DAO in some countries (for example see his answer to question 5 here). The sales were high enough to basically save the company and start working on Dragon Commander and DOS1. So sales of Div II are roughly on par with DOS2, maybe even slightly more, but within few years DOS2 should have higher numbers.

If we accept the claim that Div2 sold roughly as well as DA:O, I still don't think DA:O sold anywhere near as well as D:OS2 on the PC. Don't know about consoles though, I was comparing Steam numbers because they're fairly easy to get at. But anyway, fair point about Steam not being required at the time Div2 was released.

One thing to concern is some of the games being mentioned predate steam when they were released and it very well might be that the majority of the owners don't have the game on steam (or similar); though EA does provide free transfer of their game disk version to origin.

Originally Posted by Stingray
If we accept the claim that Div2 sold roughly as well as DA:O, I still don't think DA:O sold anywhere near as well as D:OS2 on the PC. Don't know about consoles though, I was comparing Steam numbers because they're fairly easy to get at. But anyway, fair point about Steam not being required at the time Div2 was released.

edit: On a second read of your post I see you are only talking PC. My post below assumed consoles were included. So the conclusion of my post would change taking this into account - D:OS did sell quite a bit better if you only consider PC, but they become much closer if you include consoles.

DA:O has sold over 4 million copies…approximately the same as Baldurs Gate 2 (excluding enhanced edition numbers). Div2 is NOWHERE near DA:O. It did okay in a few european countries but nowhere near as well in the international market. D:OS2 has sold more than DA:O but not much more. DA:O sold very well on the consoles and PC.

Yet Stardew Valley outsold them both.

IMO the general problem with selling RPGs is pisspoor marketing aimed only to genre fans. People who never played any RPG don't think it'll be fun, then they go with the flow and buy boring RDR2. Or lootboxes on phones.
Now imagine an ordinary person who wants to buy some game stumbling upon a teaser on youtube about possibility to play DOS2 as a "funky" skeleton carefully not mentioning it's not really some casual phone whatnot ot something. The game was selling.

BG3 will easily sell to everyone who loved the first two. What about those who never played old ones? How to get their interest? Definetly not with FO3 nuke the settlement or suicide with a mininuke presentation. Or perhaps yes?

I am praying that Something's Brewing won't be a strangely smelling pot I curiously approach in a kitchen I just broke into - wandering half-starved in the wastelands for weeks & being crazy of hunger - and I stir that Walrus Gate 3 Brewing Pot and suddenly half a dozen eyes and fingers emerge on top! I hope not. Pray…Pray…Pray…Pray…Pray…

Originally Posted by mercy
I am praying that Something's Brewing won't be a strangely smelling pot I curiously approach in a kitchen I just broke into - wandering half-starved in the wastelands for weeks & being crazy of hunger - and I stir that Walrus Gate 3 Brewing Pot and suddenly half a dozen eyes and fingers emerge on top!

Do you think that Swen and Larian are preparing something like this?

Originally Posted by Farflame
Do you think that Swen and Larian are preparing something like this?

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I love that movie. Spielburg movies became less risky after this one sadly.

If we'll trust Stadia, BG3 will be released sometime in this year:
https://wccftech.com/baldurs-gate-3-…press-release/

A fresh Google Stadia press release reveals today that five new games (detailed below) are coming to the platform between Spring and Summer.
Arguably, though, the most interesting part is in the blurb that comes right before. That's because it suggests Baldur's Gate 3 and Orcs Must Die 3 will hit Google Stadia in 2020; whereas we knew about the latter, we weren't even dreaming about the former.

True or not, I'm buying when available. On PC, not on whatever stream!

Even though I had a total let-down with Original Sin two when compared to the first one, I'll still be buying this product. That is, assuming it will be available via great old games or steam at some point.

Originally Posted by ilm
I just saw an interesting video on metacritic and review scores in general:

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It correlates the best selling games (on wikipedia) and best rated games (of metacritic). Or rather it shows there is not that much correlation (26% overlap).

A fun fact is that over 50% of the sales come from just a small number of sequels and franchises. You know the ones I'm talking about.

The video even goes much more in-depth.

Thanks, I think that was the first time ever I actually watched an entire video on youttube. Good stuff!