Coronavirus (No Politics)

Looks like another mutation on the way: https://apnews.com/article/coronavir…3bb28d6511ecad

LONDON (AP) — WHAT IS THIS NEW COVID-19 VARIANT IN SOUTH AFRICA?

South African scientists identified a new version of the coronavirus this week that they say is behind a recent spike in COVID-19 infections in Gauteng, the country’s most populous province. It’s unclear where the new variant actually arose, but it was first detected by scientists in South Africa and has now been seen in travelers to Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.

Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant was linked to an “exponential rise” of cases in the last few days, although experts are still trying to determine if the new variant is actually responsible.

From just over 200 new confirmed cases per day in recent weeks, South Africa saw the number of new daily cases rocket to 2,465 on Thursday. Struggling to explain the sudden rise in cases, scientists studied virus samples from the outbreak and discovered the new variant.

It seems rather clear to me that there's a connection between the new strain and the explosion of infectious cases. I'll be amazed if this new strain hasn't penetrated at least three other continents within a week.

The news hit the stock market pretty hard. Worst day of this year so far. I hope it doesn't start another cascade like the one we had in March last year.

What does appearance of Omicron variant mean for the double-vaccinated?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20…-double-jabbed

After our huge family reunion last month, one of my sisters and her husband contracted covid. Both tested positive, she (so far) has only gotten a mild dose, however her husband was admitted to hospital Friday night and is now in the ICU. It's the first major impact this virus has had on my family, considering we're ten siblings, I guess we've been lucky up to this point.

Originally Posted by Ripper
What does appearance of Omicron variant mean for the double-vaccinated?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20…-double-jabbed

Interesting. I also read an article by the BBC where they said that the situation is of the virus using a disguise (the mutations) to fool the anti-bodies and T-cells. Their advice was to get your booster since this effectively puts more boots on the ground which could spot the unwanted invader. (Not sure how this works.)

The Spectator was critical of a recent study on how effective masks are. I am not sure that they proved that masks where ineffective just that their impact is so intertwined with other behaviour (social distancing, hand washing, vaccinations) that the claimed benefits may be overstated.

What I got from it was that you need to understand the study methodology and that media headlines are very dodgy some of the time. The problem is if you believe nothing then you may be gambling your health against media sources being wrong.

Carnifex - hope he makes a good recovery. I am sure others have told you but the procedures and treatment that our medical teams have found since the very first cases of covid mean that we should remain hopeful.

Originally Posted by Carnifex
After our huge family reunion last month, one of my sisters and her husband contracted covid. Both tested positive, she (so far) has only gotten a mild dose, however her husband was admitted to hospital Friday night and is now in the ICU. It's the first major impact this virus has had on my family, considering we're ten siblings, I guess we've been lucky up to this point.

How's things with your family Carnifex? I was thinking of you when I had my booster yesterday.

We're playing it cautious, my husband has multiple sclerosis and any flu/infection/temperature really knocks him for six and he never gets back to where he was.

My sister tested clear yesterday, which was great news, her husband remains in hospital for now, with serious respiratory issues. This update has lit a fire under the rest of us, half so far have gotten the third booster shot and others plan to do so. Do what you can to protect yourself, folks.

Originally Posted by Carnifex
My sister tested clear yesterday, which was great news, her husband remains in hospital for now, with serious respiratory issues. This update has lit a fire under the rest of us, half so far have gotten the third booster shot and others plan to do so. Do what you can to protect yourself, folks.

Sorry to hear about your family's woes. I hope everything turns out as well as it can.

One month ago we started getting back to some kind of normalcy in Sweden. Now it will be back to restrictions again from next week, probably. I'm so tired of this. I understand why, but it still sucks.

My wife's sister has a small wedding in two weeks and I hope we can all go there so that it doesn't mess up their planning. Might seem a small price to pay for people not dying, but life just started getting back to semi-normal and just… Ugh.

Originally Posted by SveNitoR
One month ago we started getting back to some kind of normalcy in Sweden. Now it will be back to restrictions again from next week, probably. I'm so tired of this. I understand why, but it still sucks.

My wife's sister has a small wedding in two weeks and I hope we can all go there so that it doesn't mess up their planning. Might seem a small price to pay for people not dying, but life just started getting back to semi-normal and just… Ugh.

It's very frustrating. I'm not sure what's worse at this point.. the virus itself or the repeated lockdowns and disruption of the supply chain.

If there's yet another variation after Omicron, I might be tempted to think that my more conspiracy-prone friends are on to something.

Sadly, I expect at least another, possibly even more than one, more variants in the near future. A very similar tale to the one that happened to the world-wide flu that took place a century ago, we're likely to see a few more mutant strains before any real progress takes hold.

I think there's a pretty strong view that it will become endemic, and we'll simply have to learn to live with it. I think it will become ever clearer that vaccination is the only way to get on top of it, probably with seasonal updated boosters, much like the flu. The big problem, of course, is that while it evolves in huge unvaccinated populations, there's a greater risk it will produce a far more lethal variant that is much harder to cope with.

Originally Posted by JDR13
It's very frustrating. I'm not sure what's worse at this point.. the virus itself or the repeated lockdowns and disruption of the supply chain.

If there's yet another variation after Omicron, I might be tempted to think that my more conspiracy-prone friends are on to something.

Lol! well viruses always mutate, but this one spreads to so many people it has a higher chance of mutating quickly. And it's a celebrity so the media coverage makes sure everyone knows of new major mutations, unlike other viruses.

I can't even imagine what it must be like with severe lock downs. Here in Sweden they've taken a very light approach, but it's still a hassle and annoyance.

Originally Posted by Ripper
I think there's a pretty strong view that it will become endemic, and we'll simply have to learn to live with it. I think it will become ever clearer that vaccination is the only way to get on top of it, probably with seasonal updated boosters, much like the flu. The big problem, of course, is that while it evolves in huge unvaccinated populations, there's a greater risk it will produce a far more lethal variant that is much harder to cope with.

I heard a few scientists comment very early in the pandemic that it was almost certain it would become endemic, due to vaccines being far away and that the safety measures will only buy so much time.

In Sweden I've heard experts talk about it the same way you do. Even in extreme cases, like Singapore, where they've been able to control the spread more effectively (easier to do extreme lockdown in a small, one party, high tech surveillance state), they are talking about living with covid now.

I'm pretty sure I heard somewhere, that a pandemic like this takes about five years (without vaccines) before enough people have gotten it that it spreads more like a "normal" virus. You know if that's the case?

It is a no politics thread about Corona, although there are still some posts venturing into a grey area, I deleted one that went too far in my opinion and then had to delete the quoted ones as well and the related ones. Could have moved them, but I couldn't be bothered. Feel free to restart it in the P&R forum if you so wish.

Originally Posted by SveNitoR
I heard a few scientists comment very early in the pandemic that it was almost certain it would become endemic, due to vaccines being far away and that the safety measures will only buy so much time.

An important thing to remember is that this virus is pretty devastating right now because it is so novel - most people are as defenceless right now as the native Americans were against the various germs that the Europeans imported. The principal point of the vaccines is to close that gap in the arms race and soften the blow when our bodies first encounter the virus (which they inevitably will).

Once it's gone endemic, most people will probably encounter it multiple times from infancy, and nature will thus provide frequent boosters, and to a trained immune system, it probably really won't be much more menacing than one of the nastier strains of the seasonal flu - which is to say, a socially acceptable fatality rate. So that's the end game I'm waiting for. Plus, it's unlikely that it would evolve into something significantly more lethal, because killing off its hosts too quickly and violently won't help a new strain spread; better to have them walk around for a full two weeks sneezing and coughing on everyone else…

Originally Posted by Myrthos
It is a no politics thread about Corona, although there are still some posts venturing into a grey area, I deleted one that went too far in my opinion and then had to delete the quoted ones as well and the related ones. Could have moved them, but I couldn't be bothered. Feel free to restart it in the P&R forum if you so wish.

Yeah, sorry forgot myself. Thanks for fixing that.

Originally Posted by Atrachasis
Once it's gone endemic, most people will probably encounter it multiple times from infancy, and nature will thus provide frequent boosters, and to a trained immune system, it probably really won't be much more menacing than one of the nastier strains of the seasonal flu - which is to say, a socially acceptable fatality rate. So that's the end game I'm waiting for. Plus, it's unlikely that it would evolve into something significantly more lethal, because killing off its hosts too quickly and violently won't help a new strain spread; better to have them walk around for a full two weeks sneezing and coughing on everyone else…

I think that if a more lethal strain arises, it doesn't get an advantage from killing its hosts quickly. But, if it tends to be lethal in the later stages, after people have had the typical period to pass it around, it's not much of a disadvantage either, until it starts to significantly reduce the pool of potential hosts. So, while it's a novel virus replicating wildly and mutating in the global population, there's definitely a risk it could happen. There's not the same selection pressure as becoming more effective at spreading, overcoming antibodies, etc, but I do think the pandemic spread creates so many rolls of the dice that a more contagious variant that also produces more serious illness is a real worry.

Correct. Mutations are random, and there's no guarantee, considering how quickly the virus mutates that we won't see a more dangerous variant.

After all two of it's sieblings, the original SARS and the MERS virus have a lethality of correspondingly 10% and up to 30%. Fortunately, they did/does not spread as easily as the bugger harassing us now. Yet.

pibbur who is a bit troubled by this