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February 2nd, 2021, 19:07
What strikes me most of this pandemy is, that is the so far closest thing nature could conjure to make the "zombie craze" actually become reality.

Just look around you : Like in various zombie settings, one must not come near to other, infected, citizens, it can spread over to anyone, and the lockdown could also be entitled "the walking infected", cynically speaking.
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February 2nd, 2021, 20:46
Originally Posted by Cacheperl View Post
Out of curiosity: which state is that? It seems it differs alot depending on that. For instance, in some states (NRW) it is organized by the "Kassenaerztliche Vereinigung". In other states (Schleswig-Holstein), private companies seem to have been hired.
That's in B-W, which seems to use the same system as NRW and three other states.

It's theoretically doable by phone, but they suggested trying the web-based system. Presumably the phone operators are hooked up to the same database. But I wonder, how hard would it be to poll the databases of all centers in the region once per minute and display right on the front page if there are any appointments available at all? What is most mind-boggling to me is how improvised these services feel in terms of usability, as if the start of vaccination drives had come as a complete surprise.

Meanwhile, first tentative signs that the shots are having an effect on case and hospitalization rates are emerging from Israel.
https://twitter.com/segal_eran/statu…13705684869121
Tentative, because this isn't really a proper comparison to a control group, but between two age groups with different vaccination rates, but still - congrats on that!
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February 4th, 2021, 01:28
More encouraging results from Israel.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20…-after-21-days
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February 9th, 2021, 12:44
Originally Posted by Atrachasis View Post
It's theoretically doable by phone, but they suggested trying the web-based system. Presumably the phone operators are hooked up to the same database. But I wonder, how hard would it be to poll the databases of all centers in the region once per minute and display right on the front page if there are any appointments available at all? What is most mind-boggling to me is how improvised these services feel in terms of usability, as if the start of vaccination drives had come as a complete surprise.
Well, it seems to me that the system is centralized simply. And from all centers, data is automatically fed to a single server. All medical documentation is kept in electronic form, which means that this data can be automatically sent immediately after being saved in the database of this hospital. And I don't think that enough resources have been allocated for this to have access to up-to-date statistics at any time.
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February 15th, 2021, 14:08
If you look at the corona situation in (western) Europe, you will find that 3 countries now have far less infected than the rest. Norway, Finlandand and Iceland. There's also Greece, but for this discussion I'll not include that country.

Now, what's common for these three countries? Well, all countries have very good social security systems, which helps. Also - at least in Norway we trust our government, and therefore tends to follow the rules. Now, there are things to be said about both these issues (which for all I know are already discussed in the P&R forum which I don't visit), but for this particular setting it helps.

However, the same can be said about several other European countries.

There is another comon factor for these countries, which I think is very important: We're all thinly populated. In Norway we're around 14 people per square km. Compare that to for instance the Netherlands with more than 300. This means that in the current situation where now - at least in Norway - most outbreaks are local, they tend to remain local. For instance, few people from my home town, Bergen see any good reason to travel 430 km in order to go to our third biggest city, Trondheim (and fortunately few from Trondheim come to Bergen). We've had local outbreaks in Bergen, which didn't affect Trondheim, and the recent outbreak in Trondheim didn't come here.

I think this is a very important factor, which sadly cannot be ethically implemented in the rest of Europe.

But I wonder: I assume that there are thinly populated states in the US. Are there similar differences over there?

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PS. Faroe Islands (to some degree part of Denmark) is also thinly populated and has a low number of infections. DS.
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February 16th, 2021, 00:05
I imagine the time it takes for your dog sleds to travel 430 km is the primary reason no-one in Norway does too much travelling!! We have used short local lockdowns here to isolate known cases and it has worked well, even though we hate it.
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February 16th, 2021, 12:10
I think the data in terms of population density is pretty mixed in the US. For instance, Arkansas has a rather low population density (22/km^2), with a rather high number of cases per capita. Hawaii, with 4 times the density is doing much better. Alaska (<1/km^2) is doing better than Arkansas, but still has considerably higher number of cases (relative to population size) than, e.g., Norway.

I assume this is because Alaska has faster sled dogs?

Of course, there's also a problem with using population density that way, because it's not an accurate measure (aside from the obvious other variables that are ignored, such as climate). Alaska is a pretty good example. Large areas of uninhabited land skew the data. You'd probably have to take into account some average distance between cities/communities?
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February 16th, 2021, 20:35
Originally Posted by Cacheperl View Post
Of course, there's also a problem with using population density that way, because it's not an accurate measure (aside from the obvious other variables that are ignored, such as climate). Alaska is a pretty good example. Large areas of uninhabited land skew the data. You'd probably have to take into account some average distance between cities/communities?
Median population density would probably work better, but I'm not sure anyone has actually calculated that for states or nations.
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February 16th, 2021, 22:36
Originally Posted by Steven Peeler View Post
Median population density would probably work better, but I'm not sure anyone has actually calculated that for states or nations.
Even that may turn out to be a poor predictor, as it doesn't account for regional variations. Frequency of close encounters, and thus infection rates, probably scales as population density squared, so spread should be faster in a highly clustered population (for example, a few settlements on the coast, and vast stretches populated mostly by cangaroos and/or bears in between) than in a homogeneously settled region, even if the average population density is the same.

In other news, after two weeks of trying via the web portal, I finally managed to get the appointment for the BioNTech/Pfizer shot for my stepfather - and just a week from today.
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February 17th, 2021, 08:49
Originally Posted by Atrachasis View Post
In other news, after two weeks of trying via the web portal, I finally managed to get the appointment for the BioNTech/Pfizer shot for my stepfather - and just a week from today.
I've been trying to get a vaccine appointment for my father here in Florida without success. At first it kept saying there were no appointments available, and now it's saying current shipments are delayed due to inclement weather.
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February 17th, 2021, 14:44
Originally Posted by Atrachasis View Post
Even that may turn out to be a poor predictor, as it doesn't account for regional variations. Frequency of close encounters, and thus infection rates, probably scales as population density squared, so spread should be faster in a highly clustered population (for example, a few settlements on the coast, and vast stretches populated mostly by cangaroos and/or bears in between) than in a homogeneously settled region, even if the average population density is the same.
Yeah, I guess if you really want a good predictor you just run straight to cell phone companies and co.

(if you are allowed to, that is)
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February 18th, 2021, 12:28
Originally Posted by JDR13 View Post
I've been trying to get a vaccine appointment for my father here in Florida without success. At first it kept saying there were no appointments available, and now it's saying current shipments are delayed due to inclement weather.
Or there is simply not enough vaccines for the population and therefore they come up with various stupid excuses instead of honestly saying how long to wait.
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February 18th, 2021, 17:36
Never underestimate the potential for poor planning and sheer incompetence. The honest truth may be that they just don't know.
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February 20th, 2021, 16:31
More data from Israel suggesting the Pfizer jab is very effective after one dose.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20…otection-study
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March 4th, 2021, 20:43
If you take the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines:

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March 10th, 2021, 09:21


an incarnation of pibbur who has questions about other things
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March 10th, 2021, 12:30
Originally Posted by a pibbur View Post


an incarnation of pibbur who has questions about other things
Is this what happened?
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March 17th, 2021, 12:28


a pibbur

PS. This is Bob Ross.


I think he looks disgustingly nice and happy. DS.
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March 17th, 2021, 12:39
I was finally able to get my father scheduled for a shot this friday. He's getting the one by Moderna which I'm told is one of the better covid vaccines?
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March 17th, 2021, 13:26
I got the Moderna vaccine yesterday. I get the second shot on April 13. In Ohio, they just opened the vaccine up to everyone 50 and older. I'm 51 and was able to get scheduled on the 2nd day of trying.

No side effects but I do have a strange desire to buy Microsoft products. Damn you, Bill Gates
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