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NewDArt
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So, what are your predictions for 2018? Especially now with the rather short-term Trump strategy in place?
I'm far from an expert, but I seem to smell another downturn coming in the not too distant future.
I'm far from an expert, but I seem to smell another downturn coming in the not too distant future.
I am personally expecting it to go up as long as there's no major wars. I do not think the tax cuts will have such an immediate effect on the stock markets.
Anyway, since you asked about this topic, the Economist wrote one article recently:
https://www.economist.com/news/fina...re-same-they-may-be-disappointed-after-bumper
Anyway, since you asked about this topic, the Economist wrote one article recently:
https://www.economist.com/news/fina...re-same-they-may-be-disappointed-after-bumper
Ripper
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I would also be prepared for some trouble towards the end of the year, as Brexit looms as a reality (on top of the other gestating crises in the EU.) At the moment it's a lot of bluff and bluster all round, but when the rubber hits the road, things could get interesting.
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Kordanor
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Couldn't be more happy. The stock I already had last year went up by 11% since the 1.1.2018
While this can change extremely quickly as I don't have any of my "stock money" in really secure assets, I am quite positive that it will go upwards.
What actually surprised me most is that the CPU issue only caused minor issues for Intel on the stock market. And AMD (and actually nvidia as well) increased their value quite a bit (both around 10% if I am not mistaken)
I think dependent on what you invest in, you will be more or less affected on what is happening in the world. Some stuff will always sell (well, maybe not if the whole market crashes)
If you spread the investment you will minimize the risk, but ofc also be more affected of general trends.
I mean…yeah, luxury companies might lose due to wars in the world, but weapon manufacturers will probably win value.
Not saying that you should go for weapons. But I think general trends can be misleading.
Personally I watch news every day, but ignore the stock market part (which, granted, focus on germany, while my stuff is in the US) as they just don't affect me (and feel like post-mortem bone-reading most of the time anyways)
While this can change extremely quickly as I don't have any of my "stock money" in really secure assets, I am quite positive that it will go upwards.
What actually surprised me most is that the CPU issue only caused minor issues for Intel on the stock market. And AMD (and actually nvidia as well) increased their value quite a bit (both around 10% if I am not mistaken)
I think dependent on what you invest in, you will be more or less affected on what is happening in the world. Some stuff will always sell (well, maybe not if the whole market crashes)
If you spread the investment you will minimize the risk, but ofc also be more affected of general trends.
I mean…yeah, luxury companies might lose due to wars in the world, but weapon manufacturers will probably win value.
Not saying that you should go for weapons. But I think general trends can be misleading.
Personally I watch news every day, but ignore the stock market part (which, granted, focus on germany, while my stuff is in the US) as they just don't affect me (and feel like post-mortem bone-reading most of the time anyways)
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I expect Brexit to have more of an impact in 2019....
Ripper
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For sure, but some analysis I've read (think it was also The Economist), suggested that it is currently being somewhat ignored by the markets, but could start to cast a long shadow towards the end of 2018. I can't see it doing the markets any favours, as it's a lose/lose situation, at least in the short to medium term.
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N
NewDArt
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I would never waste time thinking I could, somehow, predict the future with the amount of certainty it would require to make an overall significant return reliable.
I mean, if that was actually possible - someone would have figured it out by now and we'd all know about it, because such a thing doesn't stay secret for long.
I'll do the index funds thing - and when I feel like gambling for real, I'll just go with my gut and hope for the best.
I've got too much experience with how unpredictable life can be to fool myself into believing I could come up with a brilliant system for something with this many factors.
When I think of "luck", "genius" or "blessed people". I always think about my days in the past with PnP RPGs and dice rolls.
Let's pretend our lives and our decisions are really made up of some dudes playing PnP with us as their characters and the ultimate wisdom of our decisions the results of dice rolls.
If you take enough people and you ask them to stand around all day rolling dice - and you have them record their results - you will find something interesting after a lifetime of doing that.
A tiny handful of them will seem incredibly bad at rolling dice and a tiny handful of them will seem incredibly good. These small groups would likely humanize the results and both extremes would tell themselves they're respectively cursed or blessed in life.
I mean, how could they not? If that's what their lives have taught them about their luck when it comes to the outcome of their decisions - then it's hard to dismiss and just accept it was all pretty random or circumstantial.
What's most interesting and, perhaps, most human - is that the much larger group of people - who will tend to have very mixed results of both high and low rolls - will also find a way to wrap some kind of destiny or "trend" in their lives around that.
It's all a matter of perception, really.
Even so, there would be no escaping that their own personal influence over their lives and the outcome of their decisions - when taken over an entire lifetime - is surprisingly close to zero
Not because our characters won't be different and be better at this or that - but because our "stats" or "attributes" are, for the most part, way beyond our ability to decide and is really down to factors beyond our control - including genetics and the environment in which we're raised.
Conclusively, if I spend my life investing with great risk - I have absolutely no way of knowing if, whatever the outcome, will be down to good or bad decision making, because presumably there's the equivalent of a dice rolling dude calling all the shots somewhere
That's why going with my gut is my preference in situations where circumstantial factors reach a certain intangible level and the "roll of the die" is way more influential than the wisdom of my choice.
I get excited about downturns. It means my dollar buys more index shares at a lower price which will go up substantially when the market rebounds (as it always has, historically).
Yes, that's especially true if you manage to keep your job and keep buying the indices' shares on a monthly/regular basis
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NewDArt
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I find it hard to get excited by the prospect of so much misery for so many people, especially because misery breeds misery. I mean, that’s why you guys have Trump in the big seat right now
But in terms of stocks, it makes sense if you play the long game well.
But in terms of stocks, it makes sense if you play the long game well.
Thrasher
Wheeee!
Only issue being if you need the money soon, then you should probably get out of the market mostly.
My advice, take your earnings from growth and either re-invest them in something different, or place them in LOW risk things like bonds, or cash until the next crash (which isn't likely this year, but maybe next) when you can buy back in when prices are low. I've taken my profits from last year and put them in cash so that I have a guaranteed income stream for the next 2 years no matter what the market does. However, I'm retired so perhaps I think differently.
Thrasher
Wheeee!
I'm getting close, but probably don't need it before another cycle. So it's probably ok to let it ride for now.
I find it hard to get excited by the prospect of so much misery for so many people, especially because misery breeds misery. I mean, that’s why you guys have Trump in the big seat right now
But in terms of stocks, it makes sense if you play the long game well.
I prefer to let go of what I can't control and embrace what I can (which sounds easy and obvious, but it's a relatively new application for me. I used to worry too much).
Being in Canada, north of my U.S. cousins also helps a little with stepping back and seeing the entire painting. I see a lot of protesting going around about capitalism, income and wealth inequality, etc (and we have our fair share of that in Canada too). What I see in the media vs what I see in reality are two different things. The majority just want to keep up with the Joneses, and consumerism exists in excess. People worry about their jobs, how their going to keep food on the table, that their being taken advantage of by the wealthy, etc, but here's the reality:
1) Well over 80% of vehicle purchases in the US are financed. Excuses: "Well if they have a secure job and not much debt, then why not?" ok then what about #2
2) 60% of Americans have less than $1000 in savings, and a large number of those have no savings at all.
3) The number 1, 2 and 3 selling vehicle in the US (and North America actually) is Full sized Ford Pickup, Full sized Chevy Pickup, Full sized Dodge pickup. That's right, the 3 most purchased vehicle are not even cars.
How many people actually need a truck?
- For work? Some yes, most no.
- For towing a trailer? Really you bought a trailer (maybe a boat too?) and a truck and then you complain about not making enough money?
- You like trucks? Excellent! Now stop complaining that gas is expensive after you decided you want to commute to work 2 hours a day in a full sized truck, and that life is financially hard because you wanted a vehicle that could carry your neighbors couch once a year.
I'm using vehicle purchase as an example, because aside from housing and schooling, it's the biggest purchase people make, and most people take less than 30 minutes to make that financial decision. But really it all says the same thing: People think their entitled to have everything they want, so they go into debt to get them. They want instant gratification. They're perfectly fine with buy a vehicle well above what they need, when they don't even have 4 (or even 3) digits worth of savings...
- I can't afford a vehicle! Stop financing something you can't afford. Buy used.
- Used isn't reliable! Used is very reliable if you buy a reliable used vehicle! (pre-purchase inspections are an actual thing, people)
- I work hard and deserve something nice! Spending an extra 20k every few years on a car so you can sit on a dead cow is your idea of something nice? Cmon, wake up and take a vacation (or 5) and/or put that in an index fund to retire early.
- I barely earn 30k a year! If you're earning 30k a year in a professional field, then get another job. You can earn more than that in a non-professional field. You can go take a trade RIGHT NOW and earn that much just as an apprentice, then be earning more than twice that in 4 years.
- But I love my job! Well great! But you can't have your cake and eat it too! If you love your job and don't make much money, you've personally chosen to do something you love, over making money, when making money is clearly an option!
- But my cost of living is super high! Then MOVE! There's plenty of cities ALL over the country that have lower costs of living and better wages!
- But I have a sick grandma that cannot be moved and I have a rare disease that costs me thousands in medical bills that I can't afford, and my x is suing me for millions and won't pay child support! In most cases this is greatly exaggerated, but if all of this is legit, then yes you are in the rare fraction of a percentage of people who genuinely need help, and can't use the thousands of financial aid programs out there to help you, then you finally have cause to give voice. But you are a minority, and the lack of funds that aid people in your position are being leeched from the majority who are lazy and a drain on society.
Again we have our fair share of it here in Canada too. Minimum wage is going to moved to $15/h, and the big controversy is that Tim Hortons will no longer offer paid breaks, and only partially cover the cost of their extended benefits... That's right... the absolute lowest paid full time employees in the province will make over 30k a year... and people are complaining...
TLDR: People complain about hard financial times, when most of the time, it's not really a problem. They just don't like the answers.
In USA 2018 will likely be a very good year unless Trump is impeached (market hates uncertainty). It is not clear how the elections will impact the market (democrats will likely sweep). The problem is the current policies are causing a ballon so long term there is likely to be a big crash - but it is hard to predict when (2019? 2020? 2022?); unless there is a reaction to the election at the end of 2019/2020 my guess is the crash will occur closer to 2021/2022. I won't go into details as to why I feel that is the time frame nor is there any way to tell for sure when (or if) it will happen. Also events might trigger a reaction positive or negative (war, riots, trade wars, …) and the current administration is causing a lot of domestic instability.
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If you have never played the market I would stay out right now. You might kick yourself at the end of 2018 but this is not the sort of market I think you can sink your money into it and take a nap for 5 years and make a reasonable steady return.
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Anyway that is my prediction - personally I'm heavily invested and have been for the past 25 years but if I see an exit opportunity in 2019 I will likely sell a bit - but i live in a high-tax state so there is some resistance to dumping everything that is not in an ira.
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I think i posted this earlier but for the record I avoid mutual funds and rather invest in specific companies. My typical investment time frame is 8 years. Since I'm betting on the company over long periods of time ups/downs dont' have a big effect as long as the company performs in product pipeline. Conversely if the company fails to develop the pipeline the investment is lost.
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If you have never played the market I would stay out right now. You might kick yourself at the end of 2018 but this is not the sort of market I think you can sink your money into it and take a nap for 5 years and make a reasonable steady return.
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Anyway that is my prediction - personally I'm heavily invested and have been for the past 25 years but if I see an exit opportunity in 2019 I will likely sell a bit - but i live in a high-tax state so there is some resistance to dumping everything that is not in an ira.
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I think i posted this earlier but for the record I avoid mutual funds and rather invest in specific companies. My typical investment time frame is 8 years. Since I'm betting on the company over long periods of time ups/downs dont' have a big effect as long as the company performs in product pipeline. Conversely if the company fails to develop the pipeline the investment is lost.
Ripper
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A relevant report just out.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42625434
The World Bank wants to see more government investment in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, in order to secure a healthy economic future. Since that's absolutely bloody obvious, one wonders what might be going on that means these things have not seen the investment required. Surely, not people making a fast buck in ways that don't do our future prospects any good?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42625434
The World Bank wants to see more government investment in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, in order to secure a healthy economic future. Since that's absolutely bloody obvious, one wonders what might be going on that means these things have not seen the investment required. Surely, not people making a fast buck in ways that don't do our future prospects any good?
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It's not that simple. For example, you have many people who are single parents in the US who cannot spend the time on full-time jobs and take care of their kids.
"The results of the 2010 United States Census showed that 27% of children live with one parent, consistent with the emerging trend noted in 2000"
That's not a small portion of the population.
It's easy to judge other people, but the reality is certainly not what you portray.