It isn't actually random

You can't go a few feet in the world of computer games without at some point coming up against the concept of 'Random'.

RPGs are notorious for it, but they're not the only genre by a long shot. Us on this forum are just more regularly exposed to the concept, so I think it an interesting topic for the forum.

I've recently been playing Crusader Kings Complete. Yes, the first crappy entry to Paradox's DLC infested string of games. The first one doesn't have any DLCs and just one expansion that is automatically included in Complete.

Don't get me wrong, it's a fucking dire game in almost every regard, however, I've been stress-testing it for the past couple of weeks while I have some downtime from Pathfinder Kingmaker.

My stress test has indeed proven that RNG, the element the game is so 'religiously' based upon, is indeed a complete fraud.

My evidence? Well, it's not screenshots, because I'm not taking a screeny of every moment in a 100/200 hour game that can be dismissed as one moment in a 100/200 hour game and therefore cherry picking.

No, I shall offer you, casual viewer, the opportunity to do your own math.

I'm at the stage of the game where "Plague Afflicted" is now a trait a member of you or your court can attain from a 'random' roll of the dice each month (or whenever the algorithms check for this stat to be handed out).

Now...

I have 89 people in my court. So there's 90 people in my court including myself. That's a nice round number for working out percentage chances.

Over the course of a twenty year period a grand total of 4 "Plague Afflicted" attributes were handed out to member of my court.

So, let me ask you, what are the odds of one specific person getting the "Plague Afflicted" attribute each time the algorithm does its check?

Is any other attribute associated with a greater chance to get this attribute? Such as 'Stressed', 'Illness', 'Lustful', etc?

Hmm, perhaps you wise folk could calculate for me the odds of:

My Chaste & never before ill or stressed Steward getting given the affliction 3 times in that 20 year period (and yes, I simply reloaded a save each time it happened)

And

My Chaste & Never before ill or stressed ruler with +many-health getting the attribute.

And no other court members whatsoever.

In case you think it might be something to do with the bloodline, the Steward is one of 5 brothers who all also have titled positions at the court.

Once you have provided me with the exact odds of the above occurring, I would then like to hear anyone's defence that 'random' computer games are 'always purely random'.

If, like me, you are aware computer game 'random' is usually just a veil for gamey dev-inspired bullshit, then no need to comment, other than to click the like button and have the fun of providing us with the odds required for the above 'random events' to happen.

No clue how to calculate this at the moment, but I would ask if maybe the devs added a modifier that if a character (i.e. yours) hasn't been ill before, they have a higher chance of getting it ? so you reloading may have just always kept increasing that die ?

In other words, if the standard odds were 5/100 and every year you don't get ill, that goes up by 5/100 then it makes sense that every time you reloaded your odds of getting this disease would be higher within that 20 year period.


Another hypthesis is that game used a random seed, so you reloading may have had a minimal impact as the same seed may have been used everytime.

Other than that, here's a like

No, the game doesn't use a random seed, no element is repeated after reloading.

Normally.

However, some characters seem to be 'more prone' to getting 'life altering' 'events'

Just as an update, the only character to get the trait in the next 5 years was, once again, my ruler.

I didn't reload this time as it was his time to die, he was 59, however, he, of course, didn't die from it now that I wanted him to die, he had the plague for a good 2 and a half years before I started to reload until he did actually die.

It's likely not meant to be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEewLWDpscA&t=1500s