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July 17th, 2021, 19:46
Originally Posted by Hastar View Post
There have been studies in the U.S. on where to buy property in the future because of climate change. Madison Wisconsin was #1 on the list. The Great Lakes region was rated highly because of the fresh water and northern location.
Good! Maybe everyone from Michigan and Ohio will stop moving to Florida now.
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July 17th, 2021, 19:56
Originally Posted by JDR13 View Post
Good! Maybe everyone from Michigan and Ohio will stop moving to Florida now.
You're not allowed to move back when Florida is underwater. You get to live with the gators
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July 17th, 2021, 19:59
Originally Posted by HiddenX View Post
@Moriendor
I don't know why so many people like Laschet. IMO he's an average politician, very catholic, very industry friendly and has no vision for the future. His speech skills are very poor as well.

Baerbock made a few minor mistakes, compared to Laschet's bad Corona or brown coal policies it's nothing.

The mistakes were far from minor in my opinion. It would have gotten her fired from any regular non-political job.


I strongly dislike both candidates but Laschet, in spite of his many weaknesses, is still the lesser of two evils in my opinion. It's pretty much a choice between plague or cholera though. It's outright sad.



After 16 years of Merkel mediocrity/passiveness, we really would have deserved a more proactive, more caring and more charismatic leadership, but it looks like it's not going to happen for a few more years *sigh* .
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July 17th, 2021, 20:19
Originally Posted by Hastar View Post
You're not allowed to move back when Florida is underwater. You get to live with the gators
Pfft… the northern barbarians will never understand.

https://ifunny.co/gif/oh-you-rode-po…-kid-nGtIu47Y5
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July 17th, 2021, 21:21
Florida craves more snow birds! People from Canada, flock down and see us in all our glory! Join the rebellion.
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July 17th, 2021, 22:59
Hi Ripper,

Found this on the amendment to the CO2 bill:-

Among other things, the amendment would have raised the domestic GHG emission target to at least 50% by 2030 and to net zero by 2050 in line with the NDC under the Paris Agreement. The current target is a reduction of 20% by 2020 as compared with 1990 levels and an additional 1.5% by 2021. The CO2 levy adopted in 2008 on thermal fuels, such as heating oil and natural gas and coal, would have been raised to 210 Swiss francs (CHF) (about US$229) per metric ton from the current CHF 120 (about US$131). In addition, a new air ticket levy of CHF 30 (about US$33) for short and medium-haul flights and CHF 120 for long-haul flights would have been instituted. The amendment foresaw another new levy on private and business jets ranging from CHF 500 to CHF 3000 (about US$545 and $3,272).

Furthermore, the amendment would have established a climate fund. Two-thirds of the revenue from the CO2 levy and half of the proposed air ticket levy would have been redistributed to the public, whereas one-third of the CO2 levy and the other half of the air ticket levy would have been transferred to the newly established climate fund. The money of the climate fund would have been used to invest in building charging stations for electric cars and buses and making energy-efficient renovations to buildings; to support innovative Swiss firms that develop climate-friendly technologies; and to build protection structures in alpine regions.

All companies would have been able to request an exemption from the CO2 levy and a refund. In return, they would have had to commit to investing in climate measures in their companies. Lastly, there would have been new rules for energy-efficient cars and more restrictive requirements for the energy efficiency of new buildings.


I noted that the above is "Among other things " which may be the unpopular stuff. Exactly how the "redistributed to the public" would work is unclear to me. Gut reaction is that this is a positive way forward subject to the caveats in the two prior sentences.
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July 17th, 2021, 23:42
At the heart of it, these kinds of measures are to disincentivise fossil fuel use through taxation. Which sounds maybe reasonable in theory, but the devil is the implementation. We've seen this in the past, in France. They put an extra carbon tax on the price of fuel, specifically stating that it was to disincentivise its use.

That conversation with the nation went a bit like this:

"So, we have a country in which almost everyone is dependent on vehicles to function, and many earn their living through transport jobs of some kind. You want to put a regressive tax on fuel, that working people would be forced to pay, to disincentivize them from using fossil fuels?"

"Yes, that's right."

"Cool. So, what is the better alternative you're incentivising them to use?"

"Um…"

"I see. Let me introduce you to the Yellow Vests…"


I think that's a recipe for political failure. IMO, the measures that are needed, and which would gain popular support, would be to have a massive New Deal style national investment, which I think is justified by the scale of the problem, in the same way we had to do during the Great Depression, wartime, etc. Build up the renewable energy infrastructure, invest in new technologies and factories, subsidise the production of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, and so on.

Then, in maybe 10 years, bring in the disincentives while offering the viable alternative. If the Paris targets were to be met, we'd have had to start with the war effort years ago - it ain't going to happen. But let's have a political plan that would actually work for people. Yes, it means taking on a large debt in the short term, but I think it's more than justified, and would clearly be the better economic choice compared to the alternative.
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Last edited by Ripper; July 17th, 2021 at 23:58.
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July 18th, 2021, 09:19
Ripper,

I think that the timing is too late to be benevolent. If we wait another 10 years then we will miss the targets which are based on the best estimates of our scientists. There are two things I would suggest.

Firstly, the redistribution of funds would be to those in need i.e. the poor and perhaps those most adversely impacted. If you give people some/all the money back then the "price effect" still kicks in (lowers consumption) though the "income effect" reduces the impact. [Isn't Canada doing a trial like this?]

Secondly, a signal needs to be sent to all. Perhaps bring the taxes in at a very low level to start with. However lay out the future rises so all can see and plan. My concern is that the later we start, the higher the tax rates in 2030 will be needed.

Thirdly, agree that the infrastructure projects should kick off now. Investment in Green Projects are needed now. [ They should of started 10 to 20 years ago. Remember PV panels on roofs - proved to be too popular.]

Finally, we always find excuses not to do the difficult thing. It is always a bad time to do anything radical from the norm but that means that we should just all move up the mountain slopes - or at least those that can afford it and are still alive in 2050.
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July 18th, 2021, 10:38
Originally Posted by Moriendor View Post
That was a few weeks ago. Current polls have the CDU (the current government) at around 30% and the Green party has dropped to 20%.


The chancellor candidate for the Green party Annalena Baerbock has made many mistakes in the past few weeks:


- She received extra income in the thousands of Euro (more than 25K Euro) that she did not previously declare
- Her CV contained many critical faults and inaccuracies (as a regular employee anywhere she would have been fired for sure). She had to correct her CV many times. It is obvious that she pimped her CV to make herself appear more educated and experienced than she really is.
- She wrote a book (well, or had someone write it for her) full of plagiarized quotes without giving proper credit or references. She handled the accusations very poorly by denying plagiarism outright and only then, when the evidence was overwhelming, she blamed it all on her co-writer (or ghost writer more like).



The Green party likes to think of themselves as a moral authority over us lowly inferior plebs so all of this is definitely a pretty embarrassing series of faux pas.


In addition to that, Baerbock has further embarrassed herself massively on quite a few occasions. In a Bundestag (parliament) speech in May she accredited the invention of the social market economy to the SPD (Social Democratic Party).

It is basic education and common knowledge that the chief architect of the social market economy is Ludwig Erhard of the CDU.


All of this has caused the Green party polls to crumble from a neck to neck race with the CDU (which had its own share of embarrassments) down to the current standings of ~20% Green party vs. ~30% CDU.
The only reason the Green party is not even weaker is the massive media support. The vast majority of German media are avid supporters of the left and of Baerbock.



It remains to be seen if or how much the current events will help either party. The CDU candidate Armin Laschet is the prime minister of the federal state of Northrhine Westfalia which has been hit hard by the floods. If he manages the crisis well then the Green party might not profit as much as some may be hoping now.
Isn't this going into Politics too far ? Shouldn't this discuussion be moved into our politics discussion area ?
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July 18th, 2021, 14:51
The worst in pictures : https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia…etter-929.html
(This is from a serious German news site.)
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July 18th, 2021, 15:20
Originally Posted by SleepingDog View Post
Ripper,

I think that the timing is too late to be benevolent. If we wait another 10 years then we will miss the targets which are based on the best estimates of our scientists. There are two things I would suggest.
I don't disagree with much of what you said, but I do try to be a political and economic realist, not an idealist. I do think that we have to look at the realities for millions of working people, right now. If someone is worrying about being able to pay the bills next month, and a new tax is proposed to increase the price of fuel that ensures they can't, I don't think they're going to care as much about the future threat of climate change. It's not about benevolence, but about creating a political situation where something can be done, rather than creating huge popular resistance to the measures, stoked by the PR machine of the special interests who also don't want these policies, and turn it into a "fight the power" situation. Looking at the world today, I think that's a highly likely outcome if the problem isn't tackled in conjunction with the economic plight of ordinary people.

I understand that many of these tax disincentive policies include mitigations that are supposed ease the burden on working people, but my political head tells me that people aren't going to see or trust that - they're going to see the tax burden as it affects them on Monday.

IMO, we have to go big, or I think we'll go nowhere. And it's true that if we take on huge public investment programs, then future generations will have to deal with the cost of that. But I'd say - let's ask them. If you ask the young people whether they would like a New Deal style plan to tackle climate change, create jobs, and build new infrastructure, knowing that it's based on a hope of that creating better conditions for their future, despite the costs - I think we would get a very clear answer.
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July 18th, 2021, 15:47
Originally Posted by Ripper View Post
If you ask the young people whether they would like a New Deal style plan to tackle climate change, create jobs, and build new infrastructure, knowing that it's based on a hope of that creating better conditions for their future, despite the costs - I think we would get a very clear answer.
I agree. Countries have developed too many tendencies towards cleptocracies and commerce welfare.

Plus the current consumed by the greed of people mining bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies.
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July 18th, 2021, 16:41
… and Mr. Laschet still has fun
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July 18th, 2021, 22:16
This is only a small small taste of what is to come. I feel so sorry for all the people affected!

I can just hope that this serves as a big warning, so that people finally realize that climate change are real and can affect them as well. Sadly most people will not care about what has already been happening in for example Indonesia for many years already.

But if it is in your own country, it feels much more closer and real I would assume. Still I think most people in the affected countries will say, "Climate change are horrible, someone should do something", then they'll proceed to drive their car, eat beef and take a vacation flight to Thailand.
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July 18th, 2021, 22:38
Originally Posted by GothicGothicness View Post
This is only a small small taste of what is to come. I feel so sorry for all the people affected!

I can just hope that this serves as a big warning, so that people finally realize that climate change are real and can affect them as well. Sadly most people will not care about what has already been happening in for example Indonesia for many years already.

But if it is in your own country, it feels much more closer and real I would assume. Still I think most people in the affected countries will say, "Climate change are horrible, someone should do something", then they'll proceed to drive their car, eat beef and take a vacation flight to Thailand.
That, unfortunately, is it in a nutshell and why I fall into the pessimistic group.

Sadly even doing small things at home, while helpful, won't make a big enough dent. I cut way back on water use but from the articles I have read most water individuals use isn't what they think it is. For example not flushing every time, quick showers, doing less laundry, all things I was doing. Then I read this:

https://www.popsci.com/week-of-perfe…r-consumption/

And saw a lot of the water "I" used was in clothes being made, agriculture and food, and so on. Still one can buy fewer clothes and wear existing till they drop, drive less, buy local, eat less meat, recycle (and hope it actually is recycled as a lot is not), avoid plastic, always look for reusable options for everything, etc.

I do have a truck but in the last 4.2 years I only put 8120 miles on it. I try to walk, bike, and do things all local. Take public if traveling father and available.

Yet to really make a dent you need all the big countries to join together under strong leadership, at all levels, to help push, nudge, guide, educate, and/or force people and companies to work together to fix things. Yet that is where I feel it won't happen.

Greed, money, misinformation, disbelieve, anti-science, and so on will get in the way. Leaders are human as the rest of us as someone pointed out and no better or worse then any others - although they do have more power, in theory, to guide the country/state/city/town.

Yet human nature being what it is people are more likely to say what GG said - someone should do something about this! Then proceed to do nothing themselves hoping someone else will solve the problem for them … I mean that is why we have scientists and governments, right?
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July 18th, 2021, 22:45
My condolences to anyone who has family lost or injured. I can honestly say this not the first time something like this has happened in the US. Yes weather is getting worse.

The US is facing severe drought in some parts with massive fires again. We just had a hurricane and tropical storm this month as well. It's also hotter and dry in my state.
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July 18th, 2021, 22:59
Originally Posted by wolfgrimdark View Post
Yet human nature being what it is people are more likely to say what GG said - someone should do something about this! Then proceed to do nothing themselves hoping someone else will solve the problem for them € I mean that is why we have scientists and governments, right?
Relying on the government is a paradox if you live in a democracy right? It might be fine if you live in China or Russia for example, but in most other major CO2 emitting countries, who is electing the leaders? If the majority do not want to stop: flying to Thailand, drive a lot and eat beef for example. They'll probably not vote for someone who is preventing them from doing that right?

Ok, you could argue against that, saying like, I drive a lot, I fly a lot, I eat huge amount of beef, but I am voting for a green party or candidate who want to battle climate change, so I am waiting on him to make me stop doing those things?
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July 18th, 2021, 22:59
Originally Posted by wolfgrimdark View Post
Yet to really make a dent you need all the big countries to join together under strong leadership, at all levels, to help push, nudge, guide, educate, and/or force people and companies to work together to fix things. Yet that is where I feel it won't happen.
Yes, this is the only way, IMO. Sometimes leadership is the only way to solve societal problems - hoping that the population will solve it through spontaneous enlightenment… well, better start moving uphill.

Originally Posted by wolfgrimdark View Post
Yet human nature being what it is people are more likely to say what GG said - someone should do something about this! Then proceed to do nothing themselves hoping someone else will solve the problem for them … I mean that is why we have scientists and governments, right?
That's right, and we're not going to get action at the top unless we force them into it - that's where our action is needed - not in micro-consumerist gestures. But that's where we're really apathetic, and blame others. As the comedian David Mitchell once said of our societal problems, "God! All you do is pay no attention to the way your country is run for 30 years, and look what happens. Bloody typical!"
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July 18th, 2021, 23:17
Relying on the government simply severely limits your options, and likely not for the better. Probably quicker than usual, you need to think cutting edge and put yourself somewhat ahead of the pack, if at all possible.

Or simply give up and accept the inevitable. There's nothing wrong with that approach either. Acceptance takes many forms.
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July 18th, 2021, 23:53
I hope people realize my last sentence in my post was sarcasm and why I used the emote

My own feeling is we need to tackle it from all angles. Climate change is something the majority needs to fight - from small personal acts to voting in the right people to grass roots etc.

A lot of this is about convenience as well. My Dean got their PHD in Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation and I pointed out to him he was going through 2-3 coffee pods a day …
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