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April 7th, 2020, 06:27
Originally Posted by txa1265 View Post
That means even with exponential growth in deaths, we are wildly under-reporting both cases and mortality.
HOWEVER, the death will still be reported. You can compare that to the normal death rate and get an overall effect of the virus. That will be giving you the over-all effect, though, not just the COVID-19 deaths. Other causes of death will go up, too, because hospitals are harder to get into, child abuse isn't reported as often, and so on. There's some pulls downward, as well, like fewer traffic deaths because fewer people are driving. It should be a useful number, though.

P.S. Craziness of the day… it seems some people have decided that 5G causes COVID-19 and are attacking cell phone towers. I guess it beats having them blame it on some race/creed/color but jeez.
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April 7th, 2020, 10:39
Originally Posted by Zloth View Post
HOWEVER, the death will still be reported. You can compare that to the normal death rate and get an overall effect of the virus. […] It should be a useful number, though.
I wasn't sure at first about this assertion, because of course all other causes of death generate "background noise" in the statistics. But you're right - baseline ~8,000 deaths per day in the U.S. with a (Poisson) uncertainty of +/-89, so an additional ~1,000 per day is indeed statistically highly significant and stands out in the overall death statistics even on a one-day basis.
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April 7th, 2020, 12:32
Originally Posted by Zloth View Post
HOWEVER, the death will still be reported.
I would agree that *the majority* of deaths will be reported. But more deaths will NOT be reported this year as well.

We know that this virus is (as usual) disproportionately impacting lower income and racial minority communities (speaking in terms of US), who will then have lower access to health services of all types, and often have people die at home. Immigrants of all types have been specifically excluded from the 'rescue package' and extended health benefits (yes, tax-paying people are excluded, because … well, typical America) … and therefore will end up in mass graves or large collections of corpses which will be vastly under-counted.

The other thing - overwhelmed hospitals mean that life-saving services will be denied and people will die from non-virus things that would typically not kill them. So while there will be a spike in overall deaths … separating things out will get harder - and also because you are right that things like traffic deaths will drop (but since robbery is spiking as well as gun purchases chances are we'll see more gun violence).

The statistician in me has been tracking and working every day with the JHU daily data set … it is fascinating stuff, but also horrific.
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April 7th, 2020, 13:15
There is a very good presentation (1 1/2 hour) about the biology and evolution of COVID-19 on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9A4…re=emb_rel_end

Among the things covered is how the viruses enters cells, how they change from circulating only in animal reservoirs to pandemic spread in humans, and possibilities for treatment.

I'm not sure how easy this is to understand for the general public. I had no problems, but then I am educationally a bit "biased". However, if there is something you don't understand, feel free to ask me.

The program was made around 1. of april. Things are happening fast, so there may be a few things we know more about the virus now. Observe that there is still a lot of important things we don't know.

a pibbur who learned a lot from the program.
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Last edited by a pibbur; April 7th, 2020 at 13:26.
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April 7th, 2020, 13:21
Originally Posted by Couchpotato View Post
I'm being serious the fire was back on February 20th right before the virus lockdown. It doesn't help that I live in the virus epicenter near NY, NJ, and CT. It just keeps getting worse.
Very sorry for your present difficulties. It's bad in itself, but as other has pointed out, it's even worse when happening during these troubled times.

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April 7th, 2020, 13:25
Originally Posted by Zloth View Post
P.S. Craziness of the day… it seems some people have decided that 5G causes COVID-19 and are attacking cell phone towers. I guess it beats having them blame it on some race/creed/color but jeez.
Here's a recent photograph of such an incident:

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April 7th, 2020, 14:59
Hey couch hope you get a break soon.

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April 8th, 2020, 06:52
Originally Posted by Winterfart View Post

Today is considered to be the "peak" for the virus in France, after that we'll start to have less contagions.
The lockdown seems efficient.
So much for the peak.

It also appears that servants are tempted to use less affected places in France to bring back online more profitable economically speaking places but also more contaminated places.

Less affected, less profitable places might be used as a buffer to soak up excess from more profitable, more contaminated places.
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April 8th, 2020, 08:14
Originally Posted by Cacheperl View Post
Here's a recent photograph of such anincident
Heh heh…good one. I recall an RPG having a "windmill knight" as a joke, but I can't remember what game it was. Anyone remember?
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April 8th, 2020, 09:59
Originally Posted by JDR13 View Post
Heh heh…good one. I recall an RPG having a "windmill knight" as a joke, but I can't remember what game it was. Anyone remember?
Lionheart
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion…f_the_Crusader


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April 8th, 2020, 10:04
Originally Posted by Pladio View Post
Lionheart
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion…f_the_Crusader
Interesting. There must be another game as well because I've never played Lionheart.

Iirc, the character had a name that was similar enough to Quixote to make sure people got the joke.
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April 8th, 2020, 10:19
Originally Posted by JDR13 View Post
Interesting. There must be another game as well because I've never played Lionheart.



Iirc, the character had a name that was similar enough to Quixote to make sure people got the joke.
Can't remember any other now but I may know it…
Sorry

Lionheart is a fun game to play if you do t already have a 500 game backlog.

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April 8th, 2020, 11:29
Originally Posted by Pladio View Post
Can't remember any other now but I may know it…
Sorry

Lionheart is a fun game to play if you do t already have a 500 game backlog.
Only 500?

A pibbur who doesn't know the size of his backlog, but who knows that he won't live long enough to finish them all. Rven if he doesn't become infected.
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April 8th, 2020, 12:20
Originally Posted by Pladio View Post
Lionheart is a fun game to play if you do t already have a 500 game backlog.
Great thing about Lionheart is you can play the first ~20 hours and get through the main towns and when you think 'jeez, is it just going to be dungeon after dungeon now' you can safely abandon the game without worrying about missing anything

But those first areas are so well done and deep with loads to do - really worth playing. (jeez, now I am going to reinstall, aren't I … )
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April 9th, 2020, 03:19
Well still unemployed but the good news I have a two bedroom apartment thanks to the state.They will even cover 60% of the rent. So things are looking better just need a new job after the lockdown.
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April 9th, 2020, 17:59
I work in the e-commerce dept of a pretty large supermarket. Just received notice yesterday that a co-worker tested positive for COVID-19. Not terribly surprised as the store has been absolutely packed with customers. Also the ecommerce warehouse in particular requires that many workers constantly be close together. It's just impossible to socially distance in those conditions.

All I can really do is constantly wash my hands and hope that if / when I and my wife get infected we'll be among the lucky ones who don't require hospitalization.
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April 9th, 2020, 18:28
Around here they limit the number of people allowed to enter the supermarket. In the more expensive markets, they actually enforce this. The cheaper ones have guy sitting somewhere, who should probably do something about that but is busy on the phone.

Also not an optimal solution: limit the number by asking everyone to take a shopping cart, but failing to desinfect after each use.
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April 9th, 2020, 18:49
I heard some of the smaller grocery stores around here like Trader Joes are limiting the amount of customers allowed to enter. The problem is that then people inevitably end up lining up in front of the store to get in.

But I expect our store will do that soon. Currently we have certain areas barricaded off and arrows taped on the floor in an attempt to force people to go only one way down most aisles. Also one entrance is now enter only, while the other is exit only. It's well-intentioned, but I think in some areas it's actually forcing customers closer together.

While I see a lot of customers taking wise precautions like masks or rubber gloves, there's also a ridiculous amount of people shopping with their entire families. I understand if a single parent has to bring their young kids grocery shopping because there's no one to watch them, but why are there two parents shopping with their kids? Or multiple adults shopping together? IMO the stores should really implement a one adult per household policy, though I suppose that'd be difficult to enforce in a larger supermarket.
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April 9th, 2020, 18:55
Originally Posted by Capt. Huggy Face View Post
Does humanity deserve to survive? You decide.
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Probably not.
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April 9th, 2020, 22:06
our 3 week lockdown was due to end in a week….today they added on an extra two weeks. I'm already going stir crazy, we're not allowed to go out for exercise etc, only to buy food when we have to and for medical care. Also trying to recover from serious anxiety/panic that developed after a major op in Jan, so that plus the virus + lockdown (which feels post-apocalyptic) has been quite a combo. Always thought of myself as quite level-headed, and enjoyed being single, but I'm not handling this isolation well…skyping freinds etc is not the same as being in the same room with actual people :/
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