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July 16th, 2021, 15:54
Originally Posted by Wisdom View Post
Dont' confuse what vocal and insistent groups want with majority, regardless of how much you agree with them.

Everyone likes to assume that what they want is what the majority wants, but thats not the case.
I don't - I look at data. Both things I approve and disapprove of would be done if politicians actually thought their job was to deliver on the policies the majority wants. But that's really not what they do - our democracy is a lot more complicated than that.
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July 16th, 2021, 15:57
Love to see how you know what 'the majority' want with data.

Also, I think you are missing my primary point.
You keep referring to 'them' as this completely separate group. 'Them' is one of you!. Aside from high level party politics (which we are NOT discussing), local elected and civic officials are literally your neighbors and can be replaced by a vote.

Don't lump all of politics into one unfixable bucket and just wish it were better. Start with what you can control. The majority DOES control their local government.
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July 16th, 2021, 16:21
Well, hold on a second - the discussion here is about the failure of the political response to climate change, in which you made the statement: "Politicians literal job is to do what the majority wants. Thats exactly how democracy works." My point is just that I think that's naive and simplistic. In the first place, many of the local politicians I know of govern with a plurality of votes, not a majority. I think the accurate statement is that a politician's job is to get a plurality of votes in order to execute their agenda.

I do understand how local politics and its representatives work - I deal with them quite often. I'm always in favour of local political engagement, and I'm not "lumping all politics into one unfixable bucket". What I'm saying is the idea that a plurality elects their representatives (at any level) is very different from the idea that politicians consider it their job to do what the majority wants once they're in office.

In terms of determining the population's views on things, I look at research and polling from Pew and suchlike, the same as most public bodies do. I think, if we imagine a system where all policies were decided by direct referenda rather than representation, we would see very different outcomes. I'm not suggesting that as a solution, but I am saying that there is a serious disconnect between what people can vote for, and what they would actually like to see. And I would suggest, that's a big part of why we're seeing the rise of anti-democratic populism, in all its forms. Though that's really getting into P&R stuff.
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July 16th, 2021, 16:22
In Germany 'Die Grünen' the Greens have a big chance to lead the government this September (after the elections). They are currently the second biggest party (20-25%), but I think they will rise after these events.
Last edited by HiddenX; July 16th, 2021 at 17:54.
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July 16th, 2021, 16:27
Originally Posted by HiddenX View Post
In Germany 'Die GrĂ¼nen' the Greens have a big chance to lead the government this September (after the elections). There are currently the second biggest party (20-25%), but I think they will rise after these events.
That would be a first, right ?
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July 16th, 2021, 16:35
Originally Posted by Wisdom View Post
I read his statement literally. "Politicians learn slowly and economic growth is more important." Its not politicians that learn slowly. Its the majority. Politicians literal job is to do what the majority wants. Thats exactly how democracy works.
That's a part of their job, they present a programme that they claim they will fulfil, and people mostly vote for the one that correspond to their needs and ideals. Whether they actually put a lot of effort to fulfil it is another matter entirely.

Of course, this is further hindered by the almost inevitable coalition that will take place (at least that's the case here).

But they have other tasks to perform in their role, they must manage the day-to-day requirement of a village/town/city with a lot of common tasks that are not part of their political agenda. If they only made what people wanted them to make, it would be a catastrophe, people as a group are stupid, it's a proven fact, they are not able to plan ahead, they are not able to think for the others either. Those common tasks would never be done or at the very best, we would only be reacting to events instead of anticipating them.

So they don't really do what the majority wants, and they must do other things as well. That's what brings us back to what I wrote earlier, and what politicians must learn.
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July 16th, 2021, 16:38
Originally Posted by Pladio View Post
That would be a first, right ?
On the Germany level yes - but since 2011 the Green Winfried Kretschmann is leading the government of the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as Ministerpraesident. He's very popular and successful.
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July 16th, 2021, 17:50
Originally Posted by HiddenX View Post
On the Germany level yes - but since 2011 the Green Winfried Kretschmann is leading the government of the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as Ministerpraesident. He's very popular and successful.
I wish them success but I think they have a very hard road ahead even if they get into power. The flexibility of the Greens has never ever been better in Germany from what I can see. Any party that runs on the basis of literally stating they will never work with another party is virtually doomed to fail. Goverments still need collaboration to function. Greens appear to have come leagues from their old stance. I like it.

I haven't been to Germany since 2019 and I'm not a citizen but for the first time in their history I think Greens might even be united with themselves.

I'm just glad they've opened their eyes to a viewpoint other than Joschca Fischer. You can't have a dictatorship manifesto and expect to be voted in by a very mixed democracy base.
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Last edited by Wisdom; July 16th, 2021 at 18:19.
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July 16th, 2021, 18:56
The town where I live in was hit quite hard.
However, there are towns in which complete houses do. not. exist. anymore.
Tiny rivers have becomefloods ! FLOODS ! TINY rivers !

Of an older town a superior at work said : Its ancient/antique center does not exist anymore.

I have seen photos of flooded towns - of trucks beimg almost completely under water.

The newspaper had a story - and I do fully believe that this is true after what I've seen myself and in the news ! - of a few people stuck in an elevator inside of a flooded building meanwhile the water was rising. The newspaper article said that they already had the water up to their chin ! The firemen used "strong pumps" to get the water away from then and then cut holes into the top of the elevator to get those people out !

You can see photos with using the search expression "flut Ahrweiler" in a search engine, this is one of the towns hit the most by this flood !
I heard there are also videos of that flood out there, but I haven't seen them yet.

You can see a video showing a serious overview here : https://www.ardmediathek.de/video/br…TM2ZGIzNjc3OQ/
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July 16th, 2021, 18:58
One of the things I would consider is to start moving to higher ground. Not that we're all going to be flooded like this tomorrow, but I think that property in certain areas is going to start becoming highly undesirable a lot sooner.
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July 17th, 2021, 12:25
The Celts - I think now - knew why they were building their towns mainly on higher ground …
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July 17th, 2021, 12:58
Originally Posted by Ripper View Post
One of the things I would consider is to start moving to higher ground. Not that we're all going to be flooded like this tomorrow, but I think that property in certain areas is going to start becoming highly undesirable a lot sooner.
There have been studies in the U.S. on where to buy property in the future because of climate change. Madison Wisconsin was #1 on the list. The Great Lakes region was rated highly because of the fresh water and northern location. Vermont, New Hamshire, and Maine were also towards the top of the list.

Criteria were droughts, wildfire, hurricanes, access to fresh water, and flooding.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate…eather-events/
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July 17th, 2021, 13:35
Originally Posted by Ripper View Post
One of the things I would consider is to start moving to higher ground. Not that we're all going to be flooded like this tomorrow, but I think that property in certain areas is going to start becoming highly undesirable a lot sooner.
There are some amazing houses near where I live and they're relatively cheap. But they're in floodplains…

My wife says no
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July 17th, 2021, 13:57
Originally Posted by Hastar View Post
There have been studies in the U.S. on where to buy property in the future because of climate change. Madison Wisconsin was #1 on the list. The Great Lakes region was rated highly because of the fresh water and northern location. Vermont, New Hamshire, and Maine were also towards the top of the list.

Criteria were droughts, wildfire, hurricanes, access to fresh water, and flooding.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate…eather-events/
Yeah, makes sense - I'm sure real estate folks are thinking and planning for this. I think that's where there is a bit of hope - if sooner rather than later people start to realise, "Hold on… the money might get wet!"
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July 17th, 2021, 17:44
The Rockies might get invaded shortly. Look at all that high ground, and since winter's are practically non-existent anymore, you don't really need to fret the cold anymore.
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Default Federal Act on greenhouse gas emissions

July 17th, 2021, 17:53
I will start by admitting that I do not understand the context of what I am about to say. The Swiss political system has referendums which the voters vote in and Parliament then "enacts".

Federal Act on greenhouse gas emissions - it's target is reported to be to reduce CO2 (and other Green House gases) emissions to 50% of the 1990 level by 2030. It is planned to use Tax Policy to achieve this. Note that this has been passed by the politicians.

In June 2021 the "Preliminary results" from the referendum ( don't know what this means - anyone know?) was that nearly 52% of the votes were to repeal the Act. Roughly 3.2 million voted in a country with approximately 5.5 million voters. From a Uk perspective that's a decent turnout.

There are two thoughts I have. Firstly, Climate Change Reversal is for every-one's benefit. Secondly CCR will not impact, in terms of costs, evenly. Unless we are prepared to shared the costs equitably then at best many will "drag their heels" and at worse there will be open sabotage.
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July 17th, 2021, 18:06
According to this article https://www.ksta.de/kultur/berichter…heit--38913282 a photo from an affected town was printed in the New York Times and in the Sun and in other newspapers (Swiss, Nederlande …). I even found the article by the Sun : https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/156164…-worst-floods/
"Thousands of people missing" regarding Germany is vastly overrated, though.
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July 17th, 2021, 18:32
Originally Posted by HiddenX View Post
In Germany 'Die GrĂ¼nen' the Greens have a big chance to lead the government this September (after the elections). They are currently the second biggest party (20-25%), but I think they will rise after these events.

That was a few weeks ago. Current polls have the CDU (the current government) at around 30% and the Green party has dropped to 20%.


The chancellor candidate for the Green party Annalena Baerbock has made many mistakes in the past few weeks:


- She received extra income in the thousands of Euro (more than 25K Euro) that she did not previously declare
- Her CV contained many critical faults and inaccuracies (as a regular employee anywhere she would have been fired for sure). She had to correct her CV many times. It is obvious that she pimped her CV to make herself appear more educated and experienced than she really is.
- She wrote a book (well, or had someone write it for her) full of plagiarized quotes without giving proper credit or references. She handled the accusations very poorly by denying plagiarism outright and only then, when the evidence was overwhelming, she blamed it all on her co-writer (or ghost writer more like).



The Green party likes to think of themselves as a moral authority over us lowly inferior plebs so all of this is definitely a pretty embarrassing series of faux pas.


In addition to that, Baerbock has further embarrassed herself massively on quite a few occasions. In a Bundestag (parliament) speech in May she accredited the invention of the social market economy to the SPD (Social Democratic Party).

It is basic education and common knowledge that the chief architect of the social market economy is Ludwig Erhard of the CDU.


All of this has caused the Green party polls to crumble from a neck to neck race with the CDU (which had its own share of embarrassments) down to the current standings of ~20% Green party vs. ~30% CDU.
The only reason the Green party is not even weaker is the massive media support. The vast majority of German media are avid supporters of the left and of Baerbock.



It remains to be seen if or how much the current events will help either party. The CDU candidate Armin Laschet is the prime minister of the federal state of Northrhine Westfalia which has been hit hard by the floods. If he manages the crisis well then the Green party might not profit as much as some may be hoping now.
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July 17th, 2021, 18:54
Originally Posted by SleepingDog View Post
There are two thoughts I have. Firstly, Climate Change Reversal is for every-one's benefit. Secondly CCR will not impact, in terms of costs, evenly. Unless we are prepared to shared the costs equitably then at best many will "drag their heels" and at worse there will be open sabotage.
Yes, the questions of how to approach it, and who shoulders the costs, are right at the heart of it. It seems this particular bill, proposed in the midst of the pandemic, essentially said, "How about be we put surcharges on fuel, and increase the price of food, to meet our arbitrary target?" To which the Swiss public said, "How about fuck off?"

But I think we take the wrong message if we view this as, "See - people don't really want action on climate change." There needs to be huge investment in sustainable alternatives before we start deterring the production of CO2 by shafting the little guy.
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July 17th, 2021, 18:58
@Moriendor
I don't know why so many people like Laschet. IMO he's an average politician, very catholic, very industry friendly and has no vision for the future. His speech skills are very poor as well.

Baerbock made a few minor mistakes, compared to Laschet's bad Corona or brown coal policies it's nothing.
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