When you say 'more likely' you make it sound like it's a favourite though, when it's not at all, it's effectively evens. Ok, marginally off-evens, the 88% has a 55% chance and the 79% a 45% chance.
That's not what 'sensible' people 'bet' on. You're likely imagining yourself at a roulette table with an instruction to bet. Well, hey might as well go red or black, heh. It's not a rational decision, it's a coin flip.
You have no idea if it will be red or black, but your imagining yourself as a betting man at a roulette table making a tourist bet aren't you.
You're "fuck it, probably" shows this.
Professional betters bet on sure things. sure, they may bluff here and there, but I think it's frowned upon to bet your estates wealth on a near 50/50.
Now think again. Take yourself away from the fact that I said "If you don't make the bet then you've proven Nereida incorrect", forget you're heavy bias to disprove me for a moment. Would you bet your house on the 88% game? Given the stats readily available for all to see. is 55/45 a 'sane' situation in which you wish to stake your house? You also do not need to bet, no-one's forcing you.