Right indie scene is different. But it's for indie RPG first I started collected clues that some collapse could come.
Crowd funding:
- Crowd funding is decreasing again and again, nothing seems able to stop it.
- The released crowd funding RPG looks more like failure to rebuild a hard base of fans. It attracted curious to try, and generated hugely more disappointed than satisfied and perversely it build a negative mood around WRPG.
- Sell disasters of Tyranny (not CF but obviously dragged by the wave and sort of sequel of a CF RPG), then T:Ton, are clues of the overall negativity build around WRPG crowd funding.
Indie:
- I don't see anymore the fans bases there was behind indie RPG as Eschalon Book or Spiderweb or Soldiak even if it's not trully RPG.
- I see more and more absurd comments of players expecting a polishing level rather high for indie RPG. It comes from series of significant indie games based on fake mechanism of duration increase as Permadeath, Unlocks, insane difficulty, Roguelite not Roguelike that is not that much variations as there was in Roguelike, Procedural but not really building huge amount of contents just fair variations, and those indie game can put a significant amount of budget on polishing everything at high level. Sure, but they couldn't with a RPG genre. And alas they create users expecting high level of polishing even for an indie RPG when it's absurd to expect that.
- I see cumulation of comments quoting that after-all they don't like RPG genre with some exception, and if you dig it's AAA RPG the exceptions.
- I don't see any clue of follow up of very fun very indie RPG as Antharion, or even Balrum even if a bit amateurish but can provide a lot of fun anyway. Or another example, dev of Templar Battleforce tried make RPG, looks like he gave up. And Templar Battleforce is an excellent example of attempt to build a fake duration, something incompatible with a true RPG design.
Again, there's no collapse yet, it just smells one huge is coming.