The Witcher - Future Classic @ Forbes.com

I overlooked that, and just Poland+Russia is in deed a sizeable market. But isnt piracy a relatively large issue in those countries?

I've seen Michal Kicinski (IIRC) cite 100k shipped in Poland - but that was at a time when they were saying around 1M copies had shipped worldwide. Since the actual sales are 60% of that total, I'm not sure where that leaves Poland's actual sales. Do you have figures to claim the majority out of Poland, Czech Republic and Russia? I guess you do, so what are they?

And if so, doesn't that validate my point about Sapkowski? If Poland, Czech Republic and Russia account for the majority of 600k, that leaves some pretty ordinary results in Germany, France, US, UK, Australia and so on.

Originally Posted by Zaleukos
I overlooked that, and just Poland+Russia is in deed a sizeable market. But isnt piracy a relatively large issue in those countries?

Relatively, sure, but it's still a large market. But Russia would surely be a more attractive market if piracy weren't like 90% of all game movement.

Also, Ausir: I get the feeling you never sleep. Is that correct?

Originally Posted by JuliusMagnus_notloggedin
Isn't your comparison very off?

Your comparing games with various time since they were first on sale. Oblivion has been on sale since march 2006. Diablo has been on sale since 2000.

My point is that according to the source diablo seems to be the only rpg (if you can call it at that) on PC that has *ever* sold millions. You might include som mmorpgs into that too but I dont know any other PC rpg that sold that much (ultima?).

CD Projekt is not an indie. It's a major game publisher in Central Europe.

My bad I meant "newcomer". Witcher was their first game.

The point of the anouncement was that 600.000 copies for sold for in the first quarter is very good. Especially considering Atari is the publisher.

In comparison Overlord (2007) was released 4 months prior to The Witcher and has generated sales of 800.000. Those numbers are considered good enough for a sequel. And by the way, Overlord was multiplatform (PC/Xbox360), but The Witcher seems to have outsold them (600.000 for 4 months vs 800.000 for 8 months of sales).

As said Assasins Creed - a mediocre game with flashy graphics - sold 1.870.000 copies in just few months (3-4) and thats US sales ONLY.

As for the majority of sales coming from countries where Sapkowski is well known, I've read that the game has sold 100k in Poland and 200k in Russia, so that would make a half of the sales. If you add to that any sales in Czech Republic in Spain, where Sapkowski is also popular, it will give you the majority of sales.

Originally Posted by Brother None
Also, Ausir: I get the feeling you never sleep. Is that correct?

No, I was genetically engineered not to require sleep. Ever read "Beggars in Spain" by Nancy Kress?

Originally Posted by zakhal
My point is that according to the source diablo seems to be the only rpg (if you can call it at that) on PC that has *ever* sold millions. You might include som mmorpgs into that too but I dont know any other PC rpg that sold that much (ultima?).

All Bioware, NWN 2 maybe, Sacred, many Bethesda games.

As said Assasins Creed - a mediocre game with flashy graphics - sold 1.870.000 copies in just few months (3-4) and thats US sales ONLY.

And how big was its budget? Can we agree on 5 times what The Witcher cost, including marketing? Assassin´s Creed was Ubi´s biggest game this year. That´s a completely different league. The only RPG you can compare this to is Oblivion.

Originally Posted by zakhal
From the perspective of companies who sell the games 600k is propably a suprise coming from an indie but still its nothing more than average sales at best when compared to normal console games.

600k units * ca. 18$ profit = 10.8M $

Your guess that 600k are "nothing more than average sales at best" doesn´t sound convincing. That number sounds way too big. Can you explain what makes you think so?
Especially smaller publishers would be printing money if they could collect ca. 10M with a decent but rather average game.

Originally Posted by Ausir
No, I was genetically engineered not to require sleep. Ever read "Beggars in Spain" by Nancy Kress?

No, I need time to sleep and hence have no time to read Nancy Kress

Originally Posted by Gorath
Your guess that 600k are "nothing more than average sales at best" doesn´t sound convincing.

For a cross-platform mainstream publisher it is, because an AAA console title in the US costs 20 million to produce, so it needs at least 1.5-2 million just to break even. That's your average Oblivion, Fallout 3, BioShock, Call of Duty 4, etc. etc.

Once you factor in that this isn't an AAA NA title it all becomes clearer. Let's be honest here, relative to the invested cost this is probably more profitable than Madden.

Originally Posted by Gorath
All Bioware, NWN 2 maybe, Sacred, many Bethesda games.

Yeah atleast bioware is true. In all those years its games sold as much as assasins creed did in few months:

-Baldur's Gate (2 million)[170]
-Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn (2 million)[170]
-Neverwinter Nights (2 million)

I guess bioware is one of the rare exceptions. I didnt find any oblivion numbers but its possible it sold millions too.

And how big was its budget? Can we agree on 5 times what The Witcher cost, including marketing? Assassin´s Creed was Ubi´s biggest game this year. That´s a completely different league. The only RPG you can compare this to is Oblivion.

Thats true but if big developers start to pump out new rpgs they need to sell atleast 2-3 times the amount witcher did. So the sale of 600k doesnt automatically mean that making rpgs is profitable again.

Instead risking it they could make other proven games like new assasins creeds (pretty action game) because its a fact allready that games like it sell millions. Why take risks if there is no need?

Originally Posted by zakhal
I guess bioware is one of the rare exceptions. I didnt find any oblivion numbers but its possible it sold millions too.

Oblivion sold about 4 million. It also has a budget of 20-25 million, as opposed to the the 5 million of the Witcher.

Originally Posted by zakhal
Thats true but if big developers start to pump out new rpgs they need to sell atleast 2-3 times the amount witcher did.

What…per definition?

Originally Posted by Brother None
What…per definition?

As you allready said - to break even.

Originally Posted by zakhal
As you allready said - to break even.

I also said "North American AAA console title"

I don't know if you noticed, but not every game has to be a North American AAA console title.

Originally Posted by Brother None
I also said "North American AAA console title"

I don't know if you noticed, but not every game has to be a North American AAA console title.

You said cross-platform. I doubt any mainstream publisher would start to develop PC only games nowadays.

Originally Posted by zakhal
You said cross-platform. I doubt any mainstream publisher would start to develop PC only games nowadays.

You mean Atari magically transformed into not a mainstream publisher?

Thats true but if big developers start to pump out new rpgs they need to sell atleast 2-3 times the amount witcher did. So the sale of 600k doesnt automatically mean that making rpgs is profitable again.

The Witcher sold that much in 4 months, the figures you quoted for other games are for much longer.

Most mainstream games don't have long shelf-lives, though. I wouldn't be surprised if most AAA titles sell at least half their copies in the first 6 months.

Originally Posted by Brother None
Most mainstream games don't have long shelf-lives, though.

Reminds me of THQ's policy to dump everything that's … I'd guess 1 year old.

It is *really* hard to find informations and patches for older games.

They seem to erase their memory completely after 2 years.

I expect CD Projekt's patching policy to be more like Blizzard's than like THQ's.

I wouldn't be surprised. They put so much effort in it.

I am not surprised games like Gothics, the witcher don't sell too well here in the US. The average gamer here doesn't have that kind of long attention span. 10hrs shooter game seems like a magic formular.