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March 13th, 2020, 09:29
Originally Posted by Caddy View Post
The market WILL rebound and pass its previous peak.
Oh I have zero doubt about that. My concern is how long that's going to take. I just hope this doesn't become a situation where it takes years to recover what's lost in a couple of months.

I think back to 2008. I wasn't in the market back then, but my father lost a sickening amount. It took him nearly a decade to recoup what he lost.
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March 13th, 2020, 09:31
I am kind of split there.

I somewhat expected the market to crash soonish, so I had kept some money on the side, even though that I know that "Time in the market beats timing the market".

In any case I will keep the investments I already have in the market and will progressively also invest the additional money I did set aside for a situation like that.

You never really know what expectations are already reflected within the recent drops, but that's what I somewhat mentioned before: I think for europe they already did take the strongest measures and I don't see many unexpected events unfolding. I think for the USA there might still a big surprise incoming for some investors on how bad it really is and on how good/bad it is handled.
The additional question is whether or not a recession will drag this out in addition and if so - if this recession will actually be milder due to the market being crushed already.
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March 13th, 2020, 09:45
It's a tough call if your investments are your primary source of income (or will be soon). One method of thinking would be to have your annual withdrawals cover 2 or 3 years, and have each following year locked in a GIC until your ready to withdraw. Then keep pulling out 3 years ahead of time until there's a major market drop, that will give you some buffer until you rebound. That doesn't do much now of course. However also keep in mind that if it's taking others years to recover from a market drop, it usually means they haven't been investing during that market drop either. Add more weight to that high jump onto a trampoline, means you'll also bounce back that much higher and faster. Or at least I'd like to think that metaphor works somehow.
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March 13th, 2020, 09:54
Originally Posted by Caddy View Post
One method of thinking would be to have your annual withdrawals cover 2 or 3 years, and have each following year locked in a GIC until your ready to withdraw.
GICs are a Canadian investment though. Can non-citizens even purchase them?
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March 13th, 2020, 10:10
Originally Posted by JDR13 View Post
GICs are a Canadian investment though. Can non-citizens even purchase them?
Sorry I have a habit of using Canadian terms like RRSP instead of 401K. A GIC in the US equivalent I think would be a Time/Term Deposit
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March 13th, 2020, 10:19
Originally Posted by Caddy View Post
A GIC in the US equivalent I think would be a Time/Term Deposit
Ah ok. I'm not very familiar with those, but I did a quick search, and I'm not sure they're as good as a GIC. It seems like the interest rates they pay barely keep pace with inflation.

We should probably resurrect that old investing thread. I don't want to drag this thread too off-topic.
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March 13th, 2020, 10:28
I've lost about 300,000 USD in my investment value so far. It is quite concerning indeed. I am staying put for now though. My local market is down 25% and the remainder of my investments were in the US500 through Vanguard.
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March 13th, 2020, 11:12
Originally Posted by bjon045 View Post
I've lost about 300,000 USD in my investment value so far. It is quite concerning indeed. I am staying put for now though. My local market is down 25% and the remainder of my investments were in the US500 through Vanguard.
Wow that's a lot of money. I don't even have a tenth of that to lose… Although I have no clue about anything else in your life so don't know what that means for you.

It seems people are all in different circumstances at the moment.
Like others have said, I think there'll be a recession so very likely further drops ahead in my opinion.

However whether its worth to try and sell what you have for buys when or if it does drop is a gambling game for the average Joe like myself so no clue what to do with the investments I do have…

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March 13th, 2020, 11:38
Originally Posted by Kordanor View Post
South Korea, as one of the first states which in addition also performed tons of tests of random people (and not just the ones which called due to strong symptoms) probably has some of the most representative numbers.
And besides China, it's the only country where new case numbers start to drop:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona…y/south-korea/

I think that's a good sign. I hope other governments learn a bit about South Koreas reaction to the situation. (gnhh, Ok, pretty difficult to stay away from Politics. sorry.)
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March 13th, 2020, 13:37
Well I'm down almost 700K but its all long term money and unrealized losses. Can't let this stuff get you down. If I was nearer retirement I might be freaking but I also would have much safer positions. I do recall when the market was at 11K several years ago. Once a market hits a peak it will return. So don't fret!
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March 13th, 2020, 14:01
Another crisis to put to test people's self perception.

Supermarkets have been rushed, leading to a higher concentration of people than usual, people wishing to stock up as crazy. People queueing for minutes, when usually, the waiting time is down to seconds. People exposing themselves to contamination.

Originally Posted by Capt. Huggy Face View Post
Because they live in a Big Brother kind of a country that has a long history of placing the collective good above the individual, as well as blind adherence to authority?
Same for the US. The difference is that China cost of placing the collective good above the individual and blind adherence to authority comes at their own expense whereas the US have grown a habit of looking for other groups to foot the bill.
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March 13th, 2020, 14:08
We're completely irresponsible. No argument from me on that score.
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March 13th, 2020, 14:26
I think the average American citizen would respond the same to a net over the head and machine guns at checkpoints as your average Chinese citizen. For the collective good.
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March 13th, 2020, 14:38
By the way, I'm not casting any aspersions on the Chinese people. That kind of crap scares the hell out of me, as I said in the thread where I posted the video. It scares those students in Hong Kong, too. I hope, though I'm not certain at all, we would act with as much courage as those protesters in Hong Kong. We might have to answer that question before too long.
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March 13th, 2020, 15:22
Originally Posted by Zloth View Post
Arg, that was supposed to be 60/wk in my post. Kinda helps if I give the units.

Ability to test is ramping up quick but, as was mentioned on the news today, South Korea still does more tests per day than the USA has done in total.

News came in at my company that anyone who can work from home should work from home. No face to face meetings with over 10 people, too. As a programmer, I don't expect to be face to face with many people at all for quite a while.

The timeframe given was 3 weeks. I fully expect that to be expanded quite a lot. It will be interesting to see what triggers going back to normal, though. Once we do get a handle on this and slow down the rate of infection, it will be dependent on us staying isolated. If we declare victory and all go back to work, it starts all over again a few weeks later! So… uhhh… do we need to wait until a vaccine shows up? Can people who have had it go back into work a few days/weeks after symptoms vanish? Guess we'll be finding out.
What I read is that it is more about slowing down the spread. The whole idea is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. By slowing down the spread, until it passes the peak, you make it easier for an infrastructure to deal with the sick.

Once the sick heal and have built up immunity it means less impact. So from what I understand (and note I am not a doctor nor do I play one in games although sometimes I play a healer) the goal is to slow things down until there is better control over it - by more folks being immune, more knowledge on dealing with it, etc., at which point returning to daily life would resume. If a large majority of your area has gotten sick and are now immune then it becomes less of an issue. I don't know what the odds are of getting sick more than once.

Guess the question is where is the peak turning point?
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March 13th, 2020, 15:30
You're right.



Pibbur who doesn't want to play a doctor either
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March 13th, 2020, 16:19
I work retail and don't get sick pay, so staying home isn't an option. I have 100+ face-to-face interactions/day with random people so I'm pretty much guaranteed to get it at some point.
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March 13th, 2020, 17:22
Originally Posted by Philistine View Post
I work retail and don't get sick pay, so staying home isn't an option. I have 100+ face-to-face interactions/day with random people so I'm pretty much guaranteed to get it at some point.
Ouch! That's too bad. I guess many people in a similar situation are worried now.

a pibbur who hopes the philistine stays healthy.

PS. Fortunately in most cases the disease is not dangerous. Some from the scenario/estimate used by Norwegian health authorities for 2020:

Number of people infected: 2.2 million (40% of the population)
Number of people getting sick: 733000 (1/3 of the infected)
Number of patients requiring hospital treatment: 22000 (3% of the sick),
Number of people requiring intense treatment: 5500.

Numbers are of course uncertain, but in general, the huge majority will be only mildly affected.
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March 13th, 2020, 17:28
Originally Posted by Lemonhead View Post
Our offices closed yesterday, strange feeling when 500 people are scrambling to pack up their equipment and figure out what everyone needs to work remotely. Felt a bit like a looting scene from a movie. Then I took the subway to central station, so empty and quiet, felt spooky. Like the beginning of the apocalypse.
Or the end. One of my favorite films growing up was The Omega Man (the Charlton Heston version), with him wandering the empty New York City streets. Sometimes I'm antisocial enough to think that would be nice, but of course it wouldn't be at all. Especially considering what would have to happen to get us there.
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March 13th, 2020, 17:29
Originally Posted by Philistine View Post
I work retail and don't get sick pay, so staying home isn't an option. I have 100+ face-to-face interactions/day with random people so I'm pretty much guaranteed to get it at some point.
Even if you don't get to stay home, a lot of people will, so I think you can count on that 100+ number being substantially reduced as this goes on.

More and more things are closing and being canceled, and of course in some countries (Italy) there are mandated closures. So who knows. Maybe things will get to that point where you are.
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