While that's possible that would also mean that Sinioura listened to Jumblatt but haven't consulted army? And if there was no consultation why have military agreed to Sinioura's plan?
I am not sure how isolated Hezb have actually become. Like PJ said, they took up arms against fellow Lebanese (something they said they will never do) but fighting was brief, casualties minimal and only time will tell if they have suffered any lasting damage. And let's not forget that Hezb enjoyed quite wide support among Lebenese population so, depending on how much popularity they actually did loose, it might matter or it might not.
An intersesting notice in what happened is how only Sh'ites and Sunnites fought. Maronites didn't, although Aoun's and Geagea's supporters are neighbors.
While Druze, were passionate with each other. Talal Irslan who is a Hizbullah supporter, called Walid junblatt and made sure he's alright and offered help and was too emotional with him. While now I'm watching an interview with Weam Wahab, another pro-hizbullah Durzi, he just defended Junblatt about the 3 killed Hizbullah members and said that he didn't give the order to kill them. I always thought Druze will unite when things get serious, and what happened convinced me even more.
In saida where I live only one shooting session happened and two were killed but nothing serious
.While Druze, were passionate with each other. Talal Irslan who is a Hizbullah supporter, called Walid junblatt and made sure he's alright and offered help and was too emotional with him. While now I'm watching an interview with Weam Wahab, another pro-hizbullah Durzi, he just defended Junblatt about the 3 killed Hizbullah members and said that he didn't give the order to kill them. I always thought Druze will unite when things get serious, and what happened convinced me even more.
Well, according to the latest reports Druze haven't united behind Jumblatt. Talal might have been affectionate to him but he also told him that price of ceasfire is that Jumblatt's faction has to turn their weapons over to Lebanese army. AND it appears that the old man agreed... It's a huge blow to Jumblatt's prestige and it (if he goes through with it) renders his faction irrelevant in future power games. It also(unfortunatelly) appears that Hizbullah is now the only major power in Lebannon.....
So it does look like Jumblatt will be the scapegoat... and I'll have to substitute "some other Druze chieftain" for Jumblatt. Them's the breaks...
Re Hezbollah: it's not quite as simple as that. In a lovely twist of historical irony, Hezbollah's position in Lebanon isn't that different from the USA's position in Iraq. They're the strongest fighting force in the country by far -- best trained, best equipped, most cohesive, and certainly most experienced. However, they can only exert military control over the ground they stand on (other than their strongholds), and there aren't enough of them to stand on all of Lebanon. If they do choose the way of armed confrontation, they'll be facing an interesting reversal of roles -- they're the strong ones in the open, and they'll be facing much weaker opponents doing harassment and hit and run on them. I doubt they're very interested in that outcome. That means that they'll have to deal with the other factions there.
The question is will the army stay united if things get rough?As of this writing, this means:
(1) The army. Michel Sleiman came out of this smelling like a rose. It's been said of the Lebanese army that it's actually a pretty good army, except that if you want to fight a war, you should invite some other army. That still holds. They're good at maintaining order and keeping the peace... *as long as* they don't need to go against any of the other major factions in the country. They also have plenty of boots to stand on -- meaning, they can effectively clamp down on the chaotic street-level fighting that we've been seeing in Tripoli and now east of Beirut. (I hope so anyway.) But since the army consists of people with dual loyalties all over the place, their freedom of action is very severely limited. You won't see them going against Hezbollah or Amal, probably not against the Forces Libanaises or Aoun's supporters either.
The biggest winner in all of this IMO. He did not fight, no casualties, political victory over his fellow maronite Aoun. It was Aoun's allies who wreched havoc after all, so if anybody is losing support among Maronites it's Aoun and if u're not with Aoun and u're a maronite then u're with Geagea. IMO, he is the most dangerous leader in Lebanon, he has no ethics whatsoever.(2) Forces Libanaises. Geagea's militia has been the underdog lately, but don't count them out. If Aoun's popularity tanks, Geagea will be the big winner. He's an old fox, an old soldier, and has been quietly reactivating his forces. Expect more from him.
Other than weeping on TV, what role will they play? a cure to the political crisis is highy highly unlikely.(3) The government. Sure, it's "irrelevant" -- the army doesn't do what it says, if the country is invaded all they can do is weep on TV, and so on. And yet... it's the "irrelevant" government that precipitated this mess. If the political deadlock can be resolved -- in *any* way -- the Lebanese government will be a player again. In particular, if we should see the unlikely situation of the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, and the President of Parliament all pulling in the same direction and not trying to screw any of the other major players, they'll be very much in the game. In a way, this is the prize the others are angling for.
Agreed. Just that there might a little fight their leadership between Junblatt and Weam Wahab before they unite.(4) The Druze. Don't count them out either -- Jumblatt may be down, but he won't be out until the fat lady sings. If push comes to shove, the Druze *will* unite, and I'm still betting it'll be behind one of their traditional chieftains, of whom Walid Jumblatt is numero uno. I would expect Jumblatt to pay some token penance, hand over a few rusty rifles, and withdraw to Mukhtar to lick his wounds. After which he'll be back. But most definitely he's a big loser here.
Of course they are not to be counted out. When a full scale war breaks everybody will try to be their friends. They have the money to buy the equipment of ten well-equiped armies.(5) Business interests. Specifically, the Hariri clan and the other Beirut Sunnis. They don't have that many guns, but they've got all the butter, and the Saudis to back them up. Gun power is scary, but it has its limits; money power is less obvious, but it just might win out in the end. The Hariris have that. They took one in the gut big-time here, but don't count them out either.
IMO he made a lot of enemies when he returned. While he also made friends, they might snub him as soon as they need someone to die for them. Then, his enemies won't offer him any help and Geagea will crunch him.(6) Last but definitely not least, General Michel Aoun and his merry men. He may be old, power-mad, and mentally unstable, but he's (a) enormously popular among his base, and (b) his wacky program actually has the advantage of recognizing the reality that the other factions fail to admit -- that Hezbollah is the power that needs to be dealt with and brought on board the Lebanon project if the country is ever to vaguely resemble a country rather than Italy ca the year 1500 -- and that Hezbollah won't come aboard out of the goodness of their hearts; they need something very tangible if they're ever to play ball.
I would expect the next rounds of this chess-boxing match to be played out between these seven factions, plus the Syrians, Iranians, French, and Americans/general Western interests. But don't anyone think it's the external parties who are calling the shots -- it's the Lebanese factions who are wheeling and dealing between each other and the foreigners, and tripping all over themselves in their cleverness.
Let's just all hope that the next round will be chess rather than boxing.
But they were smart weren't they?, as soon as they showed their point they pulled out of the streets to avoid any "hit and run"s.
The question is will the army stay united if things get rough?
They did well in the last few days to stay together, but then again the events of the last few days were not rough enough to split it. The only one that can avoid this is Micheal Suleiman, if he's strong enough the army will play a role, otherwise they won't.
The biggest winner in all of this IMO. He did not fight, no casualties, political victory over his fellow maronite Aoun. It was Aoun's allies who wreched havoc after all, so if anybody is losing support among Maronites it's Aoun and if u're not with Aoun and u're a maronite then u're with Geagea. IMO, he is the most dangerous leader in Lebanon, he has no ethics whatsoever.
Other than weeping on TV, what role will they play? a cure to the political crisis is highy highly unlikely.
Agreed. Just that there might a little fight their leadership between Junblatt and Weam Wahab before they unite.
IMO he made a lot of enemies when he returned. While he also made friends, they might snub him as soon as they need someone to die for them. Then, his enemies won't offer him any help and Geagea will crunch him.
IMO, you should rule out the government and probably the army and of course outside interference will be decisive.
I'me sure the next couple of rounds will be chess, but then who knows it could be a under-the-belt-punching-allowed boxing match.
That's not a good comparison, IMO. Hizbullah has headquarters and presence almost in every city in Lebanon. Yes, they vary in size and support but they can always use those as a rendez-vous. I mean Israel had to cross half of Lebanon to reach Beirut, so they can't retreat once they did what bthey came to do, while Hizbullah can take back west Beirut in one hour, do their business there then go back to the south suburbs again and again.They did. This time. If this spins out of control again, this might well change. These things have their own dynamic; you get drawn in even when you don't want to. That happened to Israel in the South -- they came in to kick out the PLO, but found that there was "just one more thing" to sort out, until eventually they got fed up with the Hezbollah sticking pins in them day in, day out, and left... in a way that looked like a humiliating retreat. That sort of thing is almost inevitable in a situation where there's one overwhelmingly powerful military imposing itself on a population that doesn't want it.
Once the army splits it won't remain a respected and legitimate player as it is now. So, they will lose their biggest advantage which is doing their business without being shot at. Yet, I agree they won't disappear , they will play a role though not as big as an army should.No, it won't., and everybody knows it. I don't think anyone wants the army to split up -- the ensuing mayhem will be too big; it'll be full-scale civil war for sure. That's why it's a stabilizing factor for the time being -- keeping neutral as the other parties slug it out, and brokering plus enforcing deals between them.
You're thinking of this a little bit differently: the army *is* playing a role, and its role is directly bound to the limits of its freedom to act. The only way the army would really be free to act as armies really do is if it splits, in which case we'd have two armies. But that doesn't mean it's irrelevant; quite the contrary. It's the most important stabilizing factor in the country today.
Yes it depends on how smart Aoun is.Yup, Geagea looks like a big winner here. However, the Maronites don't change allegiances at the drop of a hat, and Geagea started out way behind Aoun in popularity. If Aoun manages to spin this with his supporters that it was all Jumblatt's and the government's fault, he may get away with a small dent. We'll see.
If there is a solution, a new president will be elected thus a new government formed. I can't see how the current government will play a role. The new government is totally unpredictable. I mean this is the reason behind everything. The new government is a dilemma. A solution will mainly be the new government formation.Unfortunately, that's how it looks. But some kind of resolution to the political crisis is also inevitable -- either the country splits up and civil war starts in earnest, or there will be a solution. If there is a solution, the Hezbollah are the big winners there. They'll settle for nothing less.
IMO, Arslan is too weak to lead all the Druze. I know he has his supporters but in leadership traits he's weak.Them, and Arslan. We'll see who comes out on top. Then again, Druze loyalties don't change at the drop of a hat either; that power struggle might be a nasty one. (I looked into Druze-on-Druze history a bit yesterday, and they're a lot less united than I thought.)
Indeed, but I don't think his friends are ready to lose a penny for him. He's only their ally to make them say "we are majority''. No matter how strong he can be, Geagea is still a veteran in these type of wars.His new friends certainly would; however, he also has a pretty big and very hard core of Civil War period supporters. Those aren't going anywhere. Aoun has a very effective youth organization too; the next generation of Aounists is merrily growing up.
Agreed. Except for Hizbullah who needs Iran to stay in the status of power they reached. That's why they acted quickly to revert the decision of removing Shkair(their man) from the airport. They need the airport just in case Syria shut their borders in the Hezb's face.As to outside interference, I have long believed and continue to believe that Lebanese tend to overstate its importance by an order of magnitude. What Lebanese factions do with Damascus, Tehran, Paris, and Washington is far more important than what Damascus, Tehran, Paris, or Washington do with them. Sure, they matter, but the only traction they have on the ground is whatever the faction they sponsor is willing to give them -- and that will be limited by the freedom of movement of that faction.
LMAO and also a KO is highly unlikely when the boxing match starts.That's what I'm afraid of too, unless there's a checkmate in this round. Which, of course, is very unlikely.
Hezb may not be the only one with weapons but as far as I'm aware they're better armed, its one thing to be able to provide rifles to your irregulars and another to be able to deploy antishipping missiles. (Wonder if that had any influence in the decision not to send a battleship).
@POLYGON, yep, the Palestinians are another wild card in the game. I doubt AQ is very active in Ain el-Helwe (perhaps you have better info on this?), and the Lebanese Palestinians are a bit short on external support right now. It's certainly not safe to count them out, but they're not a player for the time being. What do you think will happen if they are drawn in?