Well yes I judge it by Amnesia, because for the team it was a much, much bigger commercial success than Penumbra. The team was living on below poverty wages before Amnesia. You really think they won't replicate exactly what has made it successful only with a different coat of paint?
From the footage I've seen so far, I don't get the impression that it's Amnesia with only a different coat of paint.
The engine has come a long way since Amnesia. This game looks a LOT better visually. The level design also looks more open than their previous stuff.