"My THC was 70% but I missed 3 times in a row, which can only mean one thing – the game is horribly broken" is one of the most popular complaints, so let’s talk about it. Let’s start with what 70% THC really means. If you attack long enough, you will reliably hit 70 out of 100 times. It does NOT mean that you’ll reliably hit 2 out 3 times, but that’s what many players expect.
Overall, the phenomenon of player’s expectations vs actual probabilities is well documented:
https://www.pcgamer.com/the-gollop-chamber-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-rng/
I now understand that human beings are not very good at evaluating probabilities. In particular when an RNG generates repeated sequences a human will cry foul. For a human, randomness usually means ‘evenly distributed without any detectable pattern or repetition’. This is basically how random numbers are manipulated in many games to meet player’s expectations. One poor result immediately results in a bias towards a better result.
Players without any board game or pen-and-paper roleplaying game experience tend to be a lot more hostile to the explicit use of RNG in video games. They do respond well, however, to the more subtle psychological manipulations of randomness which developers and publishers employ these days.
https://www.nexusmods.com/xcom2/mods/482
Ever do all the work getting your soldiers into position, flanking the enemy, making all the right moves to set up the perfect shot, one your soldiers just can't miss then BAM, that 95% chance to hit misses wide? But no big deal, you planned for this and still have another shot, except, holy crap the next 90% shot also misses! You played perfectly, made all the right decisions but now you are out of actions, your turn ends and the enemy proceeds to wipe your entire squad on their turn. That's it, mission failed, all that work for nothing. How UNFAIR does that feel?
Well then this mod is for you! To put it simply, it aims to make the Random Number Generator and the resulting combat rolls "FEEL" more fair. You're going to miss those 95% shots less often, about as much as you'd naturally expect. Double-extremely-low-chance misses should come up so rarely that you hopefully won't be as upset by them. Basically this mod aims to change the RNG to make it feel and play much more FUN!
REASONING
OK, first of all I'll address the obvious, the RNG in XCOM is already fair, it's been proven to be mathematically accurate many times. So why this mod and why this name?
For many people who have played this game and previous in the serious, you quickly realize that despite the mathematical assurances, it sure doesn't FEEL fair. Missing a 90% shot twice in a row, is like a punch to the gut, especially after all the work maneuvering to set it up in the first place. And depending on the difficulty level (especially in this sequel XCOM 2, which seems more punishing), what those key misses might mean to the missions success/failure. Yeah sure, it's technically accurate, it's "Good" mathematics and statistics, but it's also BAD game design.
The solution seems to be simple: rig the RNG to deliver what the player expects (or at least avoid what everyone hates – missing 3 times in a row despite seemingly high THC), so I have two questions for you:
1) Should we rig the RNG to meet players’ expectations?
2) If yes, how? Meaning what should we aim it? What outcomes should never ever happen when your THC is 70-80%?
Keep in mind that both your party and the enemies will use the same system. Remember that awesome turn when your enemy missed you 3 times in a row? Well, if you won’t be able to miss 3 times in a row, neither would your enemy.
Choose wisely.
While you’re thinking, here is how our RNG works. It draws numbers like cards from a deck, meaning you can’t draw the same card twice until the deck is out of cards and reshuffled. We round up, so if you draw 17, for example, you cannot get numbers 11 to 20 until the deck is reshuffled. This approach ensures that if your THC is 70%, you’ll miss 3 times and hit 7 times. If it's 63% though, you're not guaranteed to get 63 out of 100. Each 10 rolls you'll get 6 guaranteed hits, 3 guaranteed misses and 1 can go either way.
Ideally, your misses would be spread out evenly but as bad luck would have it, sometimes you’d line up your 3 misses in a row and then hit 7 times in a row. Nobody ever complains about hitting 7 times in a row, but missing 3 times does tend to agitate some folks.
To be fair, nobody wants to miss 3 times in a row IF your skill is high enough – this simply isn't fun, especially if the enemy hits you every time. So we can count consecutive misses and once you hit 3, the next roll is on us and it's a hit! The hit card will still be removed from the deck, so you won’t be able to draw it twice, i.e. we will simply spread out your misses evenly but won’t give you free hits or help you win.
