Another earth-shattering KABOOM from North Korea

[Rithrandil]

Sir, there is no need to panic , NK can hardly feed it's people and so far their "nukes" have only killed a couple of fish in the Pacific .

http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/01-06-2009/107653-north_korea-0

Home injuries are a bigger "threat"

Whose panicking? Why does their civilian population matter? They're completely aligned with Kim Jong Il. Their army is well-equipped and stocked, and that's all they need. I don't know why you'd trust Pravda, though - it's an admittedly pro-Russian news source, and it's conclusions about the validity of the nuclear tests are clearly wrong - from every expert who's discussed this, or who I personally have spoken too.

I don't know why "nukes" is in quotation marks. Even China admits the DPRK tested nukes. The Chinese actually notified us about the tests within minutes of receiving notification from the DPRK.

The DPRK *is* a threat. They have a huge military pointed straight at South Korea, and the capability to potentially devestate Japan. They could also sell their technology to the highest bidder.

Even if the DPRK *lost* the war, every military analysis and simulation the Pentagon (and most military-oriented think tanks) have performed says that Seoul won't exist any more. *Millions* of civilians will die. And if Kim Jong Il actually *is* mentally unstable, we're a random incident away from a blood bath at all times.

 

[Tragos]

Mr Kim plans to hand power to his son ( who recently got spanked in his visit to China), seriously , NK at the best sci-fi scenario may have a couple of nukes that are unable to cross the Atlantic . They are heavily relying to China that can turn them to Tibet 2 any time they want with minimal or no effort .

Pravda is an ultra-nationalist Russian media , they do take threats seriously , if they are not worry you shouldn't be either

 

[Rithrandil]

Mr Kim plans to hand power to his son ( who recently got spanked in his visit to China), seriously , NK at the best sci-fi scenario may have a couple of nukes that are unable to cross the Atlantic . They are heavily relying to China that can turn them to Tibet 2 any time they want with minimal or no effort .

And do you think Kim Jong Il's son will be any less crazy then his father or grandfather? He's an unknown variable right now. North Korea doesn't *have* to nuke the United States to be a threat to us - they have their military aimed at South Korea and can also cause significant damage to Japn, as well.

The DPRK doesn't want to be part of China. They rely on China for support, but they aren't looking to become a Chinese colony.

Pravda is an ultra-nationalist Russian media , they do take threats seriously , if they are not worry you shouldn't be either

And why should this make me feel better? Of course they're not going to see the DPRK as a threat; Pravda would probably cheer if the DPRK launched an attack against us our our allies. The Russians don't have mutual defence treaties with the ROK or Japan, and neither do they have a significant amount of troops sitting well within the conflict zone. The DPRK is *highly* unlikely to attack Russia, and lacks the means to do so. Their military is *entirely* directed at the south.

The DPRK is a threat, not some made-up U.S. "excuse" like Pravda claims.

 

[JDR13]

Good news, imo, regardless of the source.

Also this seems to indicate a willingness to call DPRK bluffs:

Gates Increases Hawaii Missile Defense

Good......because I'm in Hawaii right now. :lol:

Oddly enough, nobody is talking about it here...

 

[Tragos]

And do you think Kim Jong Il's son will be any less crazy then his father or grandfather? He's an unknown variable right now. North Korea doesn't *have* to nuke the United States to be a threat to us - they have their military aimed at South Korea and can also cause significant damage to Japn, as well.

Mark the "unknown" there isn't even a photo of him LOL
In the worst scenario North Koreans will look to GTFO rather than fight , "significant damage" is rather sci-fi , i wouldn't trust FOX on info .
Dunno about the Americas but here in Europe we consider Kim to be a funny little guy that barks at the moon.
Also the Koreans north or south have historical issues with Japan , it has nothing to do with you .

The DPRK doesn't want to be part of China. They rely on China for support, but they aren't looking to become a Chinese colony.

I am terrible sorry for the historical correction but China is exactly like Russia and this means "Whatever China wants China gets " , what North Koreans are looking for is irrelevant they will be swallowed in less than a week joining the Chin collective , also do not forget the Shanghai pact between Russia, China and the middle Asian "republics".

And why should this make me feel better? Of course they're not going to see the DPRK as a threat; Pravda would probably cheer if the DPRK launched an attack against us our our allies. The Russians don't have mutual defence treaties with the ROK or Japan, and neither do they have a significant amount of troops sitting well within the conflict zone. The DPRK is *highly* unlikely to attack Russia, and lacks the means to do so. Their military is *entirely* directed at the south.

The DPRK is a threat, not some made-up U.S. "excuse" like Pravda claims.

So NK doesn't have the means to attack Russia but they will attack your allies while Prava cheers ... compared with you or Japan NK is an insect , it doesn't deserve a second thought , i would LOL even if we had a border with them , a radio propaganda promising free food is enough .

Nukes today are a diplomatic tool , they add in negotiations and that's just it.
Kim may be a funny bozo but he is not that stupid to begin his end .

 

[Rithrandil]

Mark the "unknown" there isn't even a photo of him LOL
In the worst scenario North Koreans will look to GTFO rather than fight , "significant damage" is rather sci-fi , i wouldn't trust FOX on info .

Who mentioned FOX? I'm talking about the BBC, CNN, Reuters, the AP, etc. Worst case scenario is the obliteration of Seoul.

Dunno about the Americas but here in Europe we consider Kim to be a funny little guy that barks at the moon.

We don't consider him much better, but 'the funny little guy' is also sitting on a pile of weapons.

Also the Koreans north or south have historical issues with Japan , it has nothing to do with you .

It does when we have a mutual defense treaty and troops stationed there.

I am terrible sorry for the historical correction but China is exactly like Russia and this means "Whatever China wants China gets " , what North Koreans are looking for is irrelevant they will be swallowed in less than a week joining the Chin collective , also do not forget the Shanghai pact between Russia, China and the middle Asian "republics".

So you think China is going to invade the DPRK? Why would they do that? What would it gain them? Shitloads of starving, armed fanatics looking to kill them.

And what does the Shanghai pact have to do with any of this?

So NK doesn't have the means to attack Russia but they will attack your allies while Prava cheers

Yes. Look at the DPRK's deployment. Their *entire military* is aimed at South Korea. 90% of it is stationed within 50-100 miles of the border. Virtually every piece of artillery they have is aimed at Seoul. Then go look at the north border. They have some guards stationed there, but nothing that could possibly pose a threat to China or Russia.

... compared with you or Japan NK is an insect , it doesn't deserve a second thought ,

The ROK and Japan feel differently, seeing as how a conventional armed DPRK poses a threat to them, and a nuclear-armed DPRK poses an even larger threat. Go look up military reports on the DPRK. They're not a bunch of unarmed peasants sitting in the fields. *Every* military expert will tell you that any sort of conflict with the DPRK would kill potentially millions of civilians who are on *our* side.

i would LOL even if we had a border with them , a radio propaganda promising free food is enough .

Except for the fact the citizens of the DPRK are completely brainwashed. They're the world's largest cargo cult. Anything good that happens is because of Kim Jong Il or Kim Il Sung's divine brilliance. Anything bad is the fault of the evil imperialist powers.

Nukes today are a diplomatic tool , they add in negotiations and that's just it.
Kim may be a funny bozo but he is not that stupid to begin his end .

Maybe, maybe not. We don't have a read on them, and the DPRK has always played the brinksmanship game extremely close.

 

[Prime Junta]

Mark the "unknown" there isn't even a photo of him LOL
In the worst scenario North Koreans will look to GTFO rather than fight ,

How do you know this? There's really very little information coming out of the DPRK. We honestly have no idea how deep and broad the brainwashing is, but I've seen no indications whatsoever -- beyond wishful thinking like yours -- that it wouldn't be anything less than pervasive. In such a situation, the North Koreans would most definitely fight and die.

"significant damage" is rather sci-fi ,

More like another unknown. We don't know how advanced their nuclear weapons are. It's possible that all they have is a big, crude device with no delivery mechanism. It's equally possible that the leg-up they got from AQ Khan allowed them to leapfrog this phase, and go directly to a deployable warhead design. (In fact, the yield from the latest test is consistent with this hypothesis.) We know they have relatively heavy missiles that can easily reach Japan and hit a city-sized target.

That means that from where I'm at, there's a non-negligible chance that they have the capability to drop a nuke on Tokyo. That's not sci-fi -- it's a military contingency that has to be taken into account.

i wouldn't trust FOX on info .

Me neither, but they do occasionally report truths as well. Occasionally.

Dunno about the Americas but here in Europe we consider Kim to be a funny little guy that barks at the moon.

Yes. With the world's fifth-biggest army, the world's biggest artillery all pointed at Seoul, and the capability to build a nuclear bomb. IMO that's combination is... worrying.

Also the Koreans north or south have historical issues with Japan , it has nothing to do with you .

Do you have ANY idea of the global economic consequences should DPRK wipe out Seoul -- let alone Tokyo?

I am terrible sorry for the historical correction but China is exactly like Russia and this means "Whatever China wants China gets " ,

Uh... Taiwan?

Seriously: China is, and never has been, more than very superficially like Russia. Completely different demographics, geopolitics, economic situation, historical experience, culture, and political system.

what North Koreans are looking for is irrelevant they will be swallowed in less than a week joining the Chin collective , also do not forget the Shanghai pact between Russia, China and the middle Asian "republics".

So NK doesn't have the means to attack Russia but they will attack your allies while Prava cheers ... compared with you or Japan NK is an insect , it doesn't deserve a second thought , i would LOL even if we had a border with them , a radio propaganda promising free food is enough .

Nukes today are a diplomatic tool , they add in negotiations and that's just it.
Kim may be a funny bozo but he is not that stupid to begin his end .

What a beautiful example of wishful thinking.

 

[Tragos]

How do you know this? There's really very little information coming out of the DPRK. We honestly have no idea how deep and broad the brainwashing is, but I've seen no indications whatsoever -- beyond wishful thinking like yours -- that it wouldn't be anything less than pervasive. In such a situation, the North Koreans would most definitely fight and die.

Because they are fleeing in every chance and in how many cases armies of oppressive regimes gave a good fight? (not religious fanatics).
Estimations show that the NK army can mobilise something like 600k soldiers , they are not a match for Chinese or Russians.

More like another unknown. We don't know how advanced their nuclear weapons are.

If they really have any

It's possible that all they have is a big, crude device with no delivery mechanism. It's equally possible that the leg-up they got from AQ Khan allowed them to leapfrog this phase, and go directly to a deployable warhead design. (In fact, the yield from the latest test is consistent with this hypothesis.) We know they have relatively heavy missiles that can easily reach Japan and hit a city-sized target.

I know that demonizing the enemy is common but NKs and mr Kim are not insane , lunatics or anything to bomb a Japanese city . Nukes today are means of diplomatic negotiation , an extra card and nothing more .

Russian mafia used to sell nukes not any AQ Khan , Greece had an offer like 10 years ago from them .

That means that from where I'm at, there's a non-negligible chance that they have the capability to drop a nuke on Tokyo. That's not sci-fi -- it's a military contingency that has to be taken into account.

Again you assume that those people are stupid enough to fire one nuke and then get wiped of the map , i still think it is sci-fi.

Yes. With the world's fifth-biggest army, the world's biggest artillery all pointed at Seoul, and the capability to build a nuclear bomb. IMO that's combination is... worrying.

This does sound like Yugoslavia during the 60's , interesting eh?
Korea is a divided country , NKs have family members living in the south and the opposite , potentially this would be like nuking your house .

Uh... Taiwan?

Taiwan is subject to "one China" doctrine

Seriously: China is, and never has been, more than very superficially like Russia. Completely different demographics, geopolitics, economic situation, historical experience, culture, and political system.

True but they ate up Tibet like Russia ate Afghanistan and the Caucasian republics , chopped down Georgia and all the western world did was protesting .

What a beautiful example of wishful thinking.

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Shanghai_Pact_Struts_World_Stage.html
http://author.heritage.org/Press/Events/ev060906a.cfm

They have already kick USA out of central Asia , as a Eurocentrist not that i care much but i am interested to see their next move , plus i don't need to think wishfully.

 

[Prime Junta]

Because they are fleeing in every chance and in how many cases armies of oppressive regimes gave a good fight? (not religious fanatics).

Well, the Wehrmacht put up a pretty good fight. So did Stalin's Soviet Army.

Estimations show that the NK army can mobilise something like 600k soldiers , they are not a match for Chinese or Russians.

But then they aren't threatening to attack China or Russia, are they now?

If they really have any

Let me get this straight: do you believe that their nuclear test wasn't a nuclear test?

I know that demonizing the enemy is common but NKs and mr Kim are not insane , lunatics or anything to bomb a Japanese city . Nukes today are means of diplomatic negotiation , an extra card and nothing more .

Tell that to the folks in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Russian mafia used to sell nukes not any AQ Khan , Greece had an offer like 10 years ago from them .

LOL! Okay, Tragos -- at this point, I'm starting to treat you as comic relief rather than someone with something serious to say on the topic. But carry on...

Again you assume that those people are stupid enough to fire one nuke and then get wiped of the map , i still think it is sci-fi.

Oh no, I do believe that deterrence works. But the deterrent has to be credible. The DPRK is a genuine threat to stability; I don't believe it should be attacked (in fact, I believe we should tread very softly with regards to it), but I most definitely don't believe we can just ignore them.

This does sound like Yugoslavia during the 60's , interesting eh?
Korea is a divided country , NKs have family members living in the south and the opposite , potentially this would be like nuking your house .

LOL! Okay, Tragos -- whatever you say.

Taiwan is subject to "one China" doctrine

True, but still de facto independent. China wants Taiwan back, but it hasn't gotten it, and doesn't appear to have any immediate prospects of doing so. How does this fit in with your "what China wants, China gets" analysis?

True but they ate up Tibet like Russia ate Afghanistan and the Caucasian republics , chopped down Georgia and all the western world did was protesting .

Well, the Afghans did eventually kick the Soviets out, Georgia is still independent... and Tibet was a part of China for most of its history. Russia lost the Baltics, the Central Asian republics, Belarus, and Ukraine, and China hasn't gotten Outer Mongolia and the parts of Siberia that it would also like to get back.

Russia and China are both big, imperial countries with long histories; their borders have shifted a lot over the centuries (or millennia, in China's case). They've had their share of reverses as well as gains. If you only point to their gains and ignore the reverses, you'll get as flawed a picture of them as if you only point to the reverses and ignore the gains.

They have already kick USA out of central Asia , as a Eurocentrist not that i care much but i am interested to see their next move , plus i don't need to think wishfully.

You do realize what sources you're quoting, I hope?

 

[Pladio]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090628/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_secret_uranium

Eureka!




Euh, I mean
URANIUM !

 

[Tragos]

Well, the Wehrmacht put up a pretty good fight. So did Stalin's Soviet Army

Apples and oranges , historically the still young and not proven wrong revolutionary USSR fought against the humiliated from ww1 German nation.

But then they aren't threatening to attack China or Russia, are they now?

Ever wonder why?

Let me get this straight: do you believe that their nuclear test wasn't a nuclear test?

I don't believe it was and i also do not believe that NK 's made missiles can reach the other side of the Pacific .
Barking dogs don't bite.

Oh no, I do believe that deterrence works. But the deterrent has to be credible. The DPRK is a genuine threat to stability; I don't believe it should be attacked (in fact, I believe we should tread very softly with regards to it), but I most definitely don't believe we can just ignore them.

Ignoring a megalomaniac ? this would be good .
Obama so far is trying to keep a balance in positions and rhetoric and NK is only one of the factors that pressing him hard to chose sides , for sure Koreans are not a threat to their stability but may be revealing when it comes to U.S intentions.

True, but still de facto independent. China wants Taiwan back, but it hasn't gotten it, and doesn't appear to have any immediate prospects of doing so. How does this fit in with your "what China
wants, China gets" analysis?

Hong Kong has a different status while being part of China , same goes with Taiwan plus there is a timing for anything, "right here , right now" is an American concept that does not reflect the ways old nations are operating .

Well, the Afghans did eventually kick the Soviets out

Same goes for the French in Viet Nam , too costly , it doesn't mean that the Russians couldn't gas life out of every single Afghani , it just wasn't cost effective

Georgia is still independent

But chopped down , severely .

and Tibet was a part of China for most of its history

Not really , Tibet was a kingdom in medieval era and enjoyed autonomy before the Chinese annexed it , i am not examining if this was good or bad

Russia lost the Baltics, the Central Asian republics, Belarus, and Ukraine

This came natural , Russia is NOT USSR , the Baltic is inhabited by very different people (like Ingrians) very hostile to USSR also the union dissolved given independence to all it's republics .
Belarus is rulled by a pro-Russian dictator ( they have been ousted from Council of Europe) and Ukraine is one of the biggest countries/nations in Europe , too big to be chewed by anyone ( don't forget who sold cutting edge radars to Saddam days before Iraq war 2 )

and China hasn't gotten Outer Mongolia and the parts of Siberia that it would also like to get back.

A Russian-Chinese conflict over some frozen wastelands is simply not possible.

Russia and China are both big, imperial countries with long histories; their borders have shifted a lot over the centuries (or millennia, in China's case). They've had their share of reverses as well as gains. If you only point to their gains and ignore the reverses, you'll get as flawed a picture of them as if you only point to the reverses and ignore the gains.

True but look their positions now , China is buying U.S. state bonds while Russia can blackmail entire Europe on the energy field .

You do realize what sources you're quoting, I hope?

I just quoted the first 2 out of 10's of results appearing in a google search , Shanghai pact is a reality .
Also the Russians do pay better without shooting the natives and when it comes to central Asia it is all about money and PR.

 

[Rithrandil]

Apples and oranges , historically the still young and not proven wrong revolutionary USSR fought against the humiliated from ww1 German nation.

So you're saying a well-equipped, well-trained army is going to just evaporate upon contact? You don't really have any evidence to back this up.

Ever wonder why?

Because China (and to a lesser extent, Russia) have propped up their government with food and supplies.

I don't believe it was and i also do not believe that NK 's made missiles can reach the other side of the Pacific .
Barking dogs don't bite.

Well, every piece of evidence there is says you're wrong about the first one. The second one is up for grabs - the missiles *could* reach us, once they work the kinks out.

Ignoring a megalomaniac ? this would be good .
Obama so far is trying to keep a balance in positions and rhetoric and NK is only one of the factors that pressing him hard to chose sides , for sure Koreans are not a threat to their stability but may be revealing when it comes to U.S intentions.

North Korea *is* a threat to international stability. There's a reason why Russia and China have come around and started supporting us when it comes to heavy sanctions and interdicting arms shipments from the DPRK.

Hong Kong has a different status while being part of China , same goes with Taiwan plus there is a timing for anything, "right here , right now" is an American concept that does not reflect the ways old nations are operating .

Yeah, but you said that the DPRK would become a Chinese colony "in less than a week". You also have claimed that China *wants* to absorb the DPRK - which IMO is completely ass backwards. WTF does the DPRK have that China would want? Too much blood and treasure would be needed to take it/do anything with it, and China wouldn't gain anything for going after it. It'd be like the U.S. deciding to annex Baja California and Sonora. I guess we could, but why?

Same goes for the French in Viet Nam , too costly , it doesn't mean that the Russians couldn't gas life out of every single Afghani , it just wasn't cost effective

Which is why China won't take over the DPRK like you claimed.

Not really , Tibet was a kingdom in medieval era and enjoyed autonomy before the Chinese annexed it , i am not examining if this was good or bad

Well, most of China enjoyed autonomy up until the late 1940s/early 1940s.

This came natural , Russia is NOT USSR , the Baltic is inhabited by very different people (like Ingrians) very hostile to USSR also the union dissolved given independence to all it's republics .
Belarus is rulled by a pro-Russian dictator ( they have been ousted from Council of Europe) and Ukraine is one of the biggest countries/nations in Europe , too big to be chewed by anyone ( don't forget who sold cutting edge radars to Saddam days before Iraq war 2 )

Russia *was* the USSR, is his point. Do you honestly think any of the 'republics' in the USSR other than Russia had any say over anything? Russia'd love to get some of that territory back, too, and has made noises about refusing to evacuate their navy from Sevastapool if Ukraine doesn't extend the lease on the naval base.

A Russian-Chinese conflict over some frozen wastelands is simply not possible.

It's happened in the past.

I just quoted the first 2 out of 10's of results appearing in a google search , Shanghai pact is a reality .
Also the Russians do pay better without shooting the natives and when it comes to central Asia it is all about money and PR.

We know the Shanghai pact is a reality, we're disputing your sources that claim the DPRK is a happy peaceful little country that doesn't threaten anyone and the US is just using it as an excuse to be an imperial power - that and the fact those sources are wrong about the DPRK building/testing nukes.

 

[JDR13]

*YAWN*...........

 

[vanedor]

*YAWN*...........

What? I find this pretty interesting personally !

 

[JDR13]

Speaking of "earth-shattering", I experienced my first earthquake yesterday. For a brief moment I actually thought "N Korea?" to myself. :lol:

 

[magerette]

Don't worry, Gates has upped the missile shield there, JDR.

Looks like being followed has made the North Korean ship a bit nervous and it's decided to go home, or somewhere else, anyway:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090630/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_us_nkorea_ship

Little tidbit of news near the bottom:

Meanwhile on Tuesday, the Obama administration imposed financial sanctions on a company in Iran that is accused of involvement in North Korea's missile proliferation network.

In the latest move to keep pressure on Pyongyang and its nuclear ambitions, the Treasury Department moved against Hong Kong Electronics, a company located in Kish Island, Iran. The action means that any bank accounts or other financial assets found in the United States belonging to the company must be frozen. Americans also are prohibited from doing business with the firm.

 

[magerette]

I'm starting to think sanctions like those quoted above may actually be beginning to have an effect; either that, or the North Koreans just don't like us:

White House Targeted by Sweeping Cyber Attack

A widespread computer attack that began July 4 knocked out the Web sites of the Treasury Department, the Secret Service and other U.S. agencies, and South Korean government sites also came under assault.

South Korean intelligence officials believe the attacks were carried out by North Korean or pro-Pyongyang forces. U.S. officials so far have refused to publicly discuss details of the attack or where it might have originated...

The U.S. government sites, which included those of the Federal Trade Commission and the Transportation Department, were all down at varying points over the holiday weekend and into this week. South Korean Internet sites began experiencing problems Tuesday.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service, the nation's main spy agency, told a group of South Korean lawmakers Wednesday it believes that North Korea or North Korean sympathizers in the South were behind the attacks, according to an aide to one of the lawmakers briefed on the information.

 

[JDR13]

Best news I've heard all week....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_kim_jong_il

 

[V7]

Reports this morning that Burma's only five years out from going nuclear.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/revealed-burmax2019s-nuclear-bombshell-20090731-e4fw.html

 

[Prime Junta]

Oh that would be just f*ing WONDERFUL.

Still, it sort of underlines my contention that the proliferation cat is out of the bag; the remaining options are about learning to live with the new situation. I kinda liked Ken McLeod's idea about free-market nuclear deterrence. (Of course it ended badly, but still.)