Prime Junta
RPGCodex' Little BRO
- Joined
- October 19, 2006
- Messages
- 8,540
The Republicans are a mess.
Ever since Reagan, they've been an alliance of the National Coalition (aka Sensible Party), New Ascendant American Century Party (aka Sith Lords), and Christian Coalition (aka American Taliban).
These parties don't actually have all that much in common, and especially the Sith Lords and the Taliban have really made a pig's breakfast of things. John McCain ran as the Sensible Party candidate, with Sarah Palin the American Taliban candidate. That clearly didn't work out too well: the sensible people abandoned McCain over Palin, and the Taliban people abandoned Palin over McCain.
As dte pointed out in another thread here (even though he may not have intended to make that point ), the Republicans have another, longer-term problem.
Demographics.
They're doing great in rural areas and small towns, whereas the Dems pwn the filthy, sodomite, decadent, mongrel cities. Not to mention the young people.
The trouble is that the trend is towards (sub)urbanization. Cities are getting bigger, the countryside is emptying, and small towns are getting smaller. I've seen this myself, both in Finland and in America -- Missoula, Montana is a lovely small town, but the economic opportunities are so limited that pretty much every young person with any amount of ambition at least considers moving to Portland or Seattle. And lots of them do.
The consequence of this is pretty simple, really. If the Republicans persist in branding themselves the party of "Real America" -- meaning, small-town, mid-Western, white, Christian America -- they will, over the next decade or so, become a permanent minority. There just won't be enough white, Mid-Western, small-town Christians to vote them in (always assuming they won't cause another once-in-a-century disaster that'll cause an "anyone-but-the-incumbent" moment like now).
This is very worrying. A democracy cannot function without an effective loyal opposition. An effective single-party state will do great for the first two or three cycles it wins, but once the memory of being in opposition fades, it will corrode the system. IOW, America's future well-being depends as much on the Republicans getting their act together as it does on President Obama's and the Democratic majority's ability to govern. I would expect them to breeze through 2012, but if the Republicans are still unable to mount a credible challenge in the 2014 midterms or the 2016 presidential elections, you're going to be in serious trouble.
So, my resident redneck fascists -- what do you expect of your party during its stint in the wilderness? What do you hope of it? What kind of Grand Old Party would you like to see emerge from the one that's mostly just looking, y'know, Old, right now? You know my views -- I'm hoping for the Sensible Party to take the reins again, with perhaps a third party emerging, to see something like the British Labor/Conservative/(Liberal) constellation arrive. What do you think are the odds of that happening?
Ever since Reagan, they've been an alliance of the National Coalition (aka Sensible Party), New Ascendant American Century Party (aka Sith Lords), and Christian Coalition (aka American Taliban).
These parties don't actually have all that much in common, and especially the Sith Lords and the Taliban have really made a pig's breakfast of things. John McCain ran as the Sensible Party candidate, with Sarah Palin the American Taliban candidate. That clearly didn't work out too well: the sensible people abandoned McCain over Palin, and the Taliban people abandoned Palin over McCain.
As dte pointed out in another thread here (even though he may not have intended to make that point ), the Republicans have another, longer-term problem.
Demographics.
They're doing great in rural areas and small towns, whereas the Dems pwn the filthy, sodomite, decadent, mongrel cities. Not to mention the young people.
The trouble is that the trend is towards (sub)urbanization. Cities are getting bigger, the countryside is emptying, and small towns are getting smaller. I've seen this myself, both in Finland and in America -- Missoula, Montana is a lovely small town, but the economic opportunities are so limited that pretty much every young person with any amount of ambition at least considers moving to Portland or Seattle. And lots of them do.
The consequence of this is pretty simple, really. If the Republicans persist in branding themselves the party of "Real America" -- meaning, small-town, mid-Western, white, Christian America -- they will, over the next decade or so, become a permanent minority. There just won't be enough white, Mid-Western, small-town Christians to vote them in (always assuming they won't cause another once-in-a-century disaster that'll cause an "anyone-but-the-incumbent" moment like now).
This is very worrying. A democracy cannot function without an effective loyal opposition. An effective single-party state will do great for the first two or three cycles it wins, but once the memory of being in opposition fades, it will corrode the system. IOW, America's future well-being depends as much on the Republicans getting their act together as it does on President Obama's and the Democratic majority's ability to govern. I would expect them to breeze through 2012, but if the Republicans are still unable to mount a credible challenge in the 2014 midterms or the 2016 presidential elections, you're going to be in serious trouble.
So, my resident redneck fascists -- what do you expect of your party during its stint in the wilderness? What do you hope of it? What kind of Grand Old Party would you like to see emerge from the one that's mostly just looking, y'know, Old, right now? You know my views -- I'm hoping for the Sensible Party to take the reins again, with perhaps a third party emerging, to see something like the British Labor/Conservative/(Liberal) constellation arrive. What do you think are the odds of that happening?
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2006
- Messages
- 8,540