Geopolitical consequences of scrapping the missile shield

[Surlent]

Okay, the shield sounded more like a pawn on the political chess board than a genuine attempt to build missile defense in any case.

 

[zahratustra]

From the European side of things i believe that this missile shield was not popular among citizens plus it was a potential threat to our relations with Russia .
I remember some tv reportage from Prague claiming that 99% of the citizens were against the missiles while 100% of the political parties were supportive.

Right on the button Tragos. Similar situation existed in Poland. Those Poles who supported missile shield were of the same older generation who supported Bush, war in Iraq and voted for Kaczynski "comedy duo". Even Tusk (still right of the center conservative) has to take into consideration views of younger generation which is much more aware of the fact that ties with EU rather than US are in their country best interest.

 

[Zaleukos]

What about the loss of trust between Western Europe and the US?

Due to the missile shield? Negligible compared to the fallout from other issues.

Not much trust left to lose after "axis of weasels" and "either you are with us or against us". The situation was already so bad (for trust between what after all are allies) that the missile shield was unimportant.

I would prefer stronger rather than weaker transatlantic ties, *if* we can trust America to behave in a reasonably sane manner. Trouble is, GWB made a rather a big dent in that trust. Obama seems sane enough, for sure, but who's to say they don't elect Palin/Tancredo in 2012 or 2016? If *that* happens, I would very much prefer not to be all that dependent on the US for security matters; i.e., strong transatlantic ties are just fine as long as we keep a big pair of scissors handy… just in case.

We definitely need an independent pair of scissors, but there are other issues than security where good transatlantic relations are useful...

 

[Tragos]

Western Europe and the Americas are tied to the same boat , there can be trade wars , misunderstandings or even short term "cold" relationships but open hostility or long term contrasts are unlikely.
Same goes to Russian-EU relationships, Russians can trash Georgia or whoever they want for as long as both them and EU are making money .

Just my humble opinion

 

[Prime Junta]

Western Europe and the Americas are tied to the same boat , there can be trade wars , misunderstandings or even short term "cold" relationships but open hostility or long term contrasts are unlikely.
Same goes to Russian-EU relationships, Russians can trash Georgia or whoever they want for as long as both them and EU are making money .

Just my humble opinion

For once, I'm pretty much in entire agreement with you.

Due to the missile shield? Negligible compared to the fallout from other issues.

Not much trust left to lose after "axis of weasels" and "either you are with us or against us". The situation was already so bad (for trust between what after all are allies) that the missile shield was unimportant.

Quite, that's pretty much what I had in mind.

 

[Prime Junta]

Well well, that was quick:

Russia 'rethinks' Iran sanctions, on BBC

IMO it's pretty clear that this shift is a direct consequence of scrapping the missile shield. The ingredients for a workable compromise on Iran are now in place. From that to an actual compromise is a long way, of course, but it no longer looks like an impasse.

Specifically, the pro-nuke group in Iran is already squeezed from the inside; with Russia playing ball, it's possible to exert meaningful pressure from the outside. Now, "all" that's needed is (a) a suitable carrot to accompany the suddenly much bigger stick, and (b) a face-saving formula that lets Iran back down on nukes without looking like an ass. IMO both are completely realistic goals.

If this will go down in smoke, it'll be due to posturing by one or both sides. If Ahmadinejad & co feel too threatened, or especially if they risk public humiliation -- which is something they can't afford right now -- things will go south fast.

OTOH if the international community follows Teddy Roosevelt's advice and speaks softly while carrying this big stick, things might go rather nicely. Iran just might be able to accept what Rith described it as offering to Bush -- full cooperation on international monitoring of its nuclear technology, no attempts to enrich uranium or plutonium beyond fuel levels, no attempts to pursue bomb designs. I kinda doubt they're ready to repeat their offer to stop funding Hezb and their other proxies, though, unless offered a VERY juicy carrot.

 

[Benedict]

A nice analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of Britain's scaling back of our own defence spending here