Kosovo

[VPeric]

Both sides are acting like Barbarians, imho, and I have quite some suspicions against the Serbians, because of how they behaved in their last wars.

Would you care to elaborate? I like knowing how the foreigners think of us.

 

[Prime Junta]

I can't say what exactly Alrik has in mind, but the little business at Srebrenica did give the Serbs a bad name in much of Europe. It looked too much like the bad old days of WW2.

Of course, you can complain about being singled out -- the Croats and Bosniaks were certainly no angels either. But there you are; you live in an interesting part of the world. The last remnant of the real Old Europe, some would say...

 

[magerette]

I'm unsure about all the ramifications here, but it looks like a recipe for civil war at this point, with the Russians seeming to be on the side of stability for the status quo(Kosovo remaining a Serbian entity), the US pushing for autonomy, and the EU unsure of it's position. Does this seem accurate, and if so, is a civil war within Serbia for possession of this province a significant factor as Russia states, in a "destablization" of the entire region, or is it more a chapter in Serbian issues than a larger trend toward fragmentation of nations into smaller sovereign states?

It's all very far away from where I am, but it seems like something that affects a great many people and policies and could have larger consequences over time.

 

[Prime Junta]

I'd also very much like to hear VPeric's take on the situation. Is there a real risk of war, or are the Serbs going to grin and bear it (for now?)

 

[VPeric]

Civil war? No, probably not. And even if it happened, it would certainly be confined to Kosovo itself (plus maybe a few surrounding areas, like the valley of Preševo/Medveđa/Bujanovac). Realistically, though, Serbia doesn't even dare send troops, and even if it did, what guarantees "victory" for us (look what happened last time!)?

As for the my take on the whole situation, it is fairly pessimistic: I believe Kosovo is, and has been, lost for quite a while. The current policy towards Kosovo is somewhat similar to Milošević's way - instead of trying to solve the problem, it is delayed perpetually; I'd say Koštunica is the one to blame for this. IMO, our government should take a more pragmatic approach: they should try their best to protect the Serbs living there, protect Serbian property on Kosovo, and, well, dump Kosovo's share of our debt on it (I believe it sits at at least 20% of our total debt).

 

[VPeric]

Kosovo MPs proclaim independace (Feb 17th)

US embassy in Belgrade attacked (today)

Plus other assorted acts of vandalism the past few days (pushing dumpsters at cops, breaking windows on McDonald's). Thoughts/impressions, anyone?

EDIT: Ooh, pictures.

 

[blatantninja]

I think this is a recipe for disaster in an already unstable area, but I believe that any area where the majority want to self-govern, and especially one that has been operating autonomously for a decade, should have the right to declare themselves independent.

 

[GhanBuriGhan]

Few things are as frustrating as these eternal ethnic /territorial conflicts. They seem to be entirely immune to any reason. In my lifetime, I think I have seen only one such conflict that seems to be more or less peacefully resolved - northern ireland.
As to Kosovo - I know that the albanians are no angels either, but I think Serbia blew its chance at governing this province. It proved entirely incapable of making peace or keeping this part of their population happy, and during the worst moments came awfully close to another attempt at ethnic cleansing. When it comes to that, I think severing the legal ties is the best thing left to do, so there is a chance to let the scars heal.
Human rights go before territorial integrity. And to make one thing clear: the Albanians should be made to stick to that too. If they mistreat the serbs now in their charge, they should be slapped on the wrist quick and hard.

 

[magerette]

Kosovo MPs proclaim independace (Feb 17th)

US embassy in Belgrade attacked (today)

Plus other assorted acts of vandalism the past few days (pushing dumpsters at cops, breaking windows on McDonald's). Thoughts/impressions, anyone?

EDIT: Ooh, pictures.

My only thoughts are rather rueful, I'm afraid. When I saw the media coverage here for the independence celebration cited in the first link, all I could register was that somewhere in a distant part of the world, a bunch of non-americans were waving our flag and smiling. I don't think I've seen that...well, ever that I can remember.

Of course, the events in the second link restored normalcy to my world.

AFA the rioters, I did see this quote:

...Doctors at Belgrade's emergency clinic reported treating more than 30 injured, half of whom were policemen. All were lightly injured, said Dusan Jovanovic, deputy chief of the clinic, adding that most of the injured protesters were "extremely drunk."

Not exactly the surprise of the year...

Seriously, I feel for all the people there who must endure the threats of disruption of their lives and the fear of continuing hostility. I hope that a few 'lightly injured' policeman and assorted drunks will be the sum total of the casualties.

 

[Prime Junta]

Thoughts?

(1) I'm all for the abolition of the nation state, with power devolved to the regional and municipal level on the one hand, and a supra-national level on the other (heavily weighted in favor of the former). IOW, if Kosovo sets a precedent for the Basques, the Welsh, the Scots, the Bretons, the Flemish, the Lombards, or the Lakotah, I'm all for it. (Not to mention Åland and the Saami, in Finland.)

(2) However -- and this is a big however -- this process MUST be done in such a way that minority rights are respected all around. It's only common sense to learn the majority language of whatever region you live in, but minority languages and other group rights must be ensured.

(3) The problem with Kosovo is that it's in a neighborhood with a very bad record of protecting minority rights. Somehow, the rights of Kosovo Serbs must be protected -- but who's gonna do the protecting? There is no neutral third party respected by everyone available. Tricky, and dangerous.

(4) I find certain ironies about the (Christian) Serbs torching the US embassy because the US sided with the (Muslim) Kosovo Albanians. Damned if you do, damned if you don't, and which one is the religion of peace and all that. You guys won't miss your hegemony once you're used to it being gone.

 

[Geist]

Well, this isn't just about Kosovan independence, but, as is often the case in these situations, it's also a proxy war for control of a strategically important region. The US and major European powers (Germany in particular) have been very active in promoting the breakup of the former Yugoslavia ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to curb Russian influence in the region.
They're playing a pretty dangerous game here though. UN resolution 1244 which was passed following the NATO bombing of Serbia, doesn't provide for an independent Kosovo, and moreover, provides for maintaining the territorial integrity of the Yugoslav federation (Russia wouldn't have agreed to a resolution that allowed for Kosovan seccesion).
Now, in this latest move, the US and the EU are simply bipassing the security council and ignoring international law by sponsoring a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. That certainly sets a dangerous precedent which could spark conflict and destabilization in other countries as well.
Russia has repeatedly stated that it would categorically refuse to accept any Kosovan declaration of independence, so this latest move is certain to accelarate the growing tensions between Russia and the West.
In any case, this move by the US, the UK, France, Germany et al. has little to do with human rights and everything to do with self-interest (and of course the same can be said of Russia's stance as well). Martti Ahtisaaris plan of "conditional independence" for Kosovo basically amounts to the creation of a European protectorate.

 

[Zaleukos]

I am a bit curious about what strategic value does Kosovo have that would justify the expenses necessary to keep it afloat for a decade or so? The "benefit" of a de facto protectorate is that it might reduce the potential of the place as a hotbed for organised crime, but that is not exactly an intrinsic value of the region... It doesnt have any interesting resources, and is due to geography not exactly a convenient highway to anyplace important. I dont think there are any shifty imperialist machinations behind the recognition of a Kosovo that has been de facto independent for a long time by now.

That said I'm a bit uncertain that it was particularly clever to give the Kosovars the impression that we'd back a unilateral declaration of independence. The situation reminds me a bit of EU:s handling of Cyprus, where one side thinks that it doesnt have to bother with negotiations because the union is on it's side no matter what.

 

[Prime Junta]

If you take a power-political perspective, I agree that the EU and the USA botched the Kosovo issue (and the Balkans issues in general) big-time; specifically, scrapping the established system of international law (such as it is) in favor of unilateral Nato intervention was colossally stupid, not to mention unfair. Nor is the end result -- a near-anarchic Albanian state with doubtful loyalties and uncertain chances of succeeding, a seriously pissed-off Serbia, and a moderately pissed-off Russia -- exactly an example of a shining diplomatic success.

Still, the Yugoslav succession wars were a tough situation. They brought back to Europe the kind of atrocities that hadn't been seen in these parts since World War 2, and the Security Council did not look like it could reach an agreement about how to intervene. Would it have been possible to intervene in a way that would have mitigated the disaster without running into the train wreck that we're currently seeing? Could the Security Council have reached a consensus that would have made it possible to do this under UN auspices? If not, would non-interference -- letting the massacres and ethnic cleansing continue while doing nothing -- really have been the better option?

I hate to admit it, but I honestly don't know. The Balkans are a seriously complex place; much like the Middle East, only smaller and with less oil. I do know that barging in with guns blazing -- which is essentially what Nato did at the time -- is usually not the best strategy.

As it is, I can only offer my sympathies to everyone in the Balkans; another cycle of war is the last thing we need there. If only we could all just get along...

 

[Zaleukos]

Given the blatant failure to act in Bosnia earlier I think the NATO intervention made sense at the time. I'm more critical of the "post-processing" of the situation. There's a huge difference between putting an intelligent policy together during peacetime (as Kosovo more or less has enjoyed since 99) and coming up with urgent crisis response which the the intervention was. Unfortunately there is a tendency to ignore hotspots until they blow up into your face...

That said I dont see much potential for outright war after the 90s ethnical cleansing, possibly with the exception of Macedonia. Bosnia might dissolve, but why would it lead to open warfare when the country de facto is split already and there is a strong international military presence in the region?

 

[Prime Junta]

That said I dont see much potential for outright war after the 90s ethnical cleansing, possibly with the exception of Macedonia. Bosnia might dissolve, but why would it lead to open warfare when the country de facto is split already and there is a strong international military presence in the region?

I wouldn't rule it out.

These situations are a bit like mixing gasoline and air -- certain mixes are more volatile than others. The current situation looks potentially pretty volatile to me: we have 1.8 million Albanians and about 100,000 pretty testy Serbs, with the Serbs concentrated in a few areas, most of them concentrated in areas close to Serbia rather than dispersed among the Albanians. That sort of mix could easily spark a cycle of tit-for-tat mischief -- the Kosovo Serbs refusing to cooperate with the new Kosovo state (and possibly making some low-key mayhem there), Serbia giving them support, and Russia supporting the Serbians; eventually this could piss off the Kosovo Albanians enough to retaliate, and from there on out we're well on our way to breaking out the modern equivalents of torches and pitchforks again.

IOW, we have a situation that has previous led to ethnic cleansing and/or violent border shifts; I'm worried that this could happen again. Not right now, but if things get out of hand. VPeric?

 

[magerette]

To a politically remote outsider like myself, there are two things that bother me about the situation. One is the unresolved issue of the ethnic minorities and who will govern them--Serbia last I heard was swearing it would insist on their inclusion and an anullment of independence, with the Kosovan Prime Minister completely rejecting the concept, leaving the issue presently at a deadlock that seems irreconcilable. Second is the tendency of Russia to put its money where its mouth is and actively participate, as in this proposal which shows support for Serbia by providing them with access to the Russian gas pipeline.

There's also the question of the region's economics, with Serbia concerned about business as usual development and expansion threatened, and servicing a $150 million a year Kosovan debt

While I'd like to think that all these elements can be resolved through diplomatic routes or non-violent negotiations, the balance of things does seem to be significantly upset, and when you mix intervening outside world powers like Russia vs EU/US, local nationalism, religious and ethnic conflict and economic problems, the resulting brew can often explode into something truly nasty. We seem to have an awful lot of that going around these days--nasty, ugly and violent confrontations.

I've had the good fortune to live most of my lifetime in a country untouched by war, in a world racked by small local wars--I wonder frequently now how long this situation will prevail, and what will be the incident that pushes things past the maintenance of balance worldwide, whether all these fires can burn---Middle East, Africa, now Eastern Europe--without becoming one big conflagration. Kosovo may not be that catylist, but I can't help feeling that perhaps something someday soon will.

 

[Zaleukos]

IOW, we have a situation that has previous led to ethnic cleansing and/or violent border shifts; I'm worried that this could happen again. Not right now, but if things get out of hand. VPeric?

Hasn't ethnic cleansing mainly been a matter of clearing mixed areas and isolated pockets of the other group? I thought the current makeup of Kosovo is one of post cleansing already, with the Serbs mainly in two pockets, one of which borders Serbia and one closer to Macedonia. At least the former pocket (half of Mitrovica and northwards?) is pretty likely to de facto remain part of Serbia and should be safe unless abandoned by the Serb government the way Krajina was, and the Kosovars are far less armed for a takeover than Croatia was in that case. The second pocket is less defensible but should be safe as long as the heaviest armed forces around are NATO rather than Kosovar (though feck knows what happens once NATO leaves in 10-20 years time).

 

[Prime Junta]

Hasn't ethnic cleansing mainly been a matter of clearing mixed areas and isolated pockets of the other group? I thought the current makeup of Kosovo is one of post cleansing already, with the Serbs mainly in two pockets, one of which borders Serbia and one closer to Macedonia. At least the former pocket (half of Mitrovica and northwards?) is pretty likely to de facto remain part of Serbia and should be safe unless abandoned by the Serb government the way Krajina was, and the Kosovars are far less armed for a takeover than Croatia was in that case. The second pocket is less defensible but should be safe as long as the heaviest armed forces around are NATO rather than Kosovar (though feck knows what happens once NATO leaves in 10-20 years time).

The problem is that Kosovo isn't a viable state unless it manages to extend its authority over all of its territory, and the Serb regions to the north and the enclave to the south don't look like they're ready to play ball. The possible outcomes of that aren't very nice:

(1) Prolonged limbo -- de jure part of Kosovo, de facto under Serbian protection. This would turn them into something of a no-man's land, and certainly lead to friction around the edges. Not good.

(2) A border shift so that the Serb areas to the north are (re)joined with Serbia. This would leave the southern enclave with a big bull's eye painted on it, and would increase the likelihood of the Serbs in the north expelling any Albanians in their territory. Also, Kosovo isn't likely to accept the border change without challenge.

(3) A move by the Kosovo government to exert its authority on the Serb areas. This is probably the nastiest scenario, since in the eyes of the countries that recognized Kosovo this would be a legitimate move, while Serbia and Russia would oppose it strongly -- possibly even with force. If that happens, all bets are off.

 

[VPeric]

IOW, we have a situation that has previous led to ethnic cleansing and/or violent border shifts; I'm worried that this could happen again. Not right now, but if things get out of hand. VPeric?

Hopefuly, no war this time. You hit the possible outcomes very well, and I'd say option 1 is most likely - it's a bad solution, certainly, but it's better than the alternatives (which lead into more ethnic cleaning sooner or later).

BTW, Zaleukos, Kosovo does actually have lots of resources - various metals and a lot of quality, easily-accessible coal. Speaking of economic issues, the debt thing is very unfortunate (Magerette had a link) - the current political situation means we'll keep paying off their debt, even though we could have offloaded it to them easily during negotiation (and it's a lot of money, somewhere around 10-15% of our total debt).

 

[Geist]

I am a bit curious about what strategic value does Kosovo have that would justify the expenses necessary to keep it afloat for a decade or so? The "benefit" of a de facto protectorate is that it might reduce the potential of the place as a hotbed for organised crime, but that is not exactly an intrinsic value of the region... It doesnt have any interesting resources, and is due to geography not exactly a convenient highway to anyplace important.

As VPeric pointed out, Kosovo has the second largest reserves of brown coal in Europe, as well as 20 billion tons of lead and zinc and 15 billion tons of nickel. And, interestingly enough, now we hear news of potentially substantial gold deposits as well
Ever since taking control of Kosovo, the joint NATO-UN administration has rapidly pushed forward with the privatisation of the Kosovan economy. Major industries (previously state owned) in mining, manufacturing and agriculture were sold off to private foreign interests.
Probably of greater significance though, is the presence in Kosovo of Camp Bondsteel, (the biggest foreign US military base construction since the Vietnam War) to ensure the security of the adjacent AMBO trans-balkan oil pipeline which will pass through Albania and Macedonia. EU countries have been increasingly concerned about Europe's dependence on Russia for oil and gas imports. The Balkans provide an important conduit for pipeline projects through which oil and gas from the Caspian Sea can be pumped to Western Europe, circumventing Russian territory.

Unfortunately there is a tendency to ignore hotspots until they blow up into your face...

That's a somewhat benign way of looking at the Kosovo issue in my opinion. NATO certainly didn't ignore it. Since the mid 90's, Germany, with US support, was providing logistical, financial and diplomatic support to FARK (later the KLA). This support helped the Kosovan separatists to increase their supply of arms and fighters, allowing them to challenge Serb security forces and take control of large sections of the province. That led to the reprisals by the Serbian military, and, when a humanitarian crisis ensued, NATO was all too happy to unleash their bombers.
I'm not suggesting that the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo didn't have some valid grievances, nor that these conflicts in the former Yugoslavia couldn't have broken out without NATO interference. I am saying that NATO, by supporting separatists and undermining peace treaties, was deliberately instrumental in fomenting ethnic rivalries in the region, in order to bring about the breakup of a socialist, pro-russian state into a series of free market pro-western client states.
Divide et Impera.