Thoughts on Peak Oil

I've always thought it kinda ironic that you're completely cool about sitting on a stockpile of nuclear bombs big enough to turn the planet into a fluorescing glass parking lot, but aren't able to use the same tech and same stuff to produce electricity. I think that's gonna change, though. A decade or two back, Sweden passed a law to phase out nuclear energy; they've quietly gone back on that.

To be fair, the same people that are so staunchly against nuclear energy (at least the ones that go out and protest) think we should get rid of all our ICBMs and other nukes. Personally, I think we need to scale back our arsenal and increase our nuclear energy program.
 
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Actually, there are alternative ways to store solar energy that are quite clean and at least as efficient as batteries. For example:

(1) Take one depleted oil or natural gas field. Build solar plant on top. Take excess power produced by plant to run electric pump to pump air into field. Install a valve, turbine, and generator into another drill hole, and block up the rest. Open valve to run turbine with the pressurized air, to power generator to produce electricity as required.

I hadn't heard of that one, though I had thought of it myself when thinking about solar panels for a house. I wondered how efficient it was (not an engineer so a bit out of my expertise!).

(2) Build your solar power plant by the seashore. Use excess electricity to run electrolysis on seawater. Collect hydrogen. To produce electricity, burn it in a fuel cell or conventional furnace... or sell it off to power vehicles.

I've also heard of a 'solar pond' I think they call it, where you dig a pond, and put varying layers of heavily salinated water, with the lowers being practically salt slush. You pump heat from the solar panels or whatever into the lowest layers and somehow the varying levels of salinity trap the heat. You then have pipes through it, which you pump water at night, which turns to steam and turns a turbine. Again not sure about the efficiency of it, and if it were to leak into a ground water area, it could contaminate drinking water, but still an interesting idea.
 
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I believe this difference in reactions illustrates a lot about our differences. Euros demand more of their government, and generally get more too -- many if not most European countries are better governed, with better infrastructure, better social services, and so on. (OK, there's Italy, but that's a different story.) Conversely, Americans adapt better to sudden changes in circumstances -- and the result is a more flexible, more dynamic, more productive economy.

This is one of the things that, at least historically, I've been most proud of our country. We really haven't turned to the government for help unless we have to. Obviously, there are some elements of society that act in other ways, but overall, I think we've always had a 'I'll take care of myself' attitude. Sadly, it does seem to be changing though.

The Holy Grail would be to somehow combine the two -- American dynamism, flexibility, quickness to adopt new innovations, and European standards for good government. I wonder how that could happen?

I don't think that most European countries have been better governed historically. If nothing else, they're so saddled with social services and pension promises that it sometimes pails in comparison to the building problems we have with social security and Medicare. Also, at least traditionally, Americans have had much more privacy and freedom than Europe. Hell, when I was in London last month, I was amazed that you couldn't drive 1/10 of a mile or walk more than few blocks without seeing a government security or traffic camera. It was kind of an eye opening experience for where the US is heading.
 
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Do correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the supply of uranium is limited? Actually, I read recently about some Japanese projects that "pick it up" from the ocean (basicaly wait for the uranium to come to the shore), but even with that method, we're limited (by quanitity _and_ speed).

There are different types of nuke fuel. Plus they can reuse fuel from old reactors sometimes. I read a few years ago that with the type of fuel the old reactors run on, there really is only enough fuel on the planet for something like 2 years worth of electricity (Not sure if that was global or us), but the article completely ignored that there are more efficient methods now and they can use multiple types of fuels.
 
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Do correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the supply of uranium is limited? Actually, I read recently about some Japanese projects that "pick it up" from the ocean (basicaly wait for the uranium to come to the shore), but even with that method, we're limited (by quanitity _and_ speed).

It is, but uranium-235 isn't the only nuclear fuel. We know how to produce Pu-239 from U-238, which is abundant. We also know how to produce fissile fuels from even more abundant isotopes of thorium. And we're even able to build accelerator-driven subcritical reactors that will burn nuclear waste.

The big issue with nuclear fuel is security and weapons proliferation -- breeder reactors used to produce nuclear fuel can be used to produce bomb material just as easily. And, of course, we have years of nuclear fuel sitting unused on top of intercontinental ballistic missiles right now, without any additional refinement effort.
 
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To be fair, the same people that are so staunchly against nuclear energy (at least the ones that go out and protest) think we should get rid of all our ICBMs and other nukes. Personally, I think we need to scale back our arsenal and increase our nuclear energy program.

Still, don't you think it's kinda strange that these "enviro-fascists" are brutally effective at preventing you from constructing nuclear power, but completely unable to stop you from constructing nuclear missiles?

Or, in other words, I don't buy that explanation. If they're in a position to make a difference, they'll do both. Now they're just used as a convenient scapegoat.
 
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I hadn't heard of that one, though I had thought of it myself when thinking about solar panels for a house. I wondered how efficient it was (not an engineer so a bit out of my expertise!).
The amount of air you'd have to pump into a "tank" of that size to create sufficient pressure differential to do anything would be prohibitive. I think you'd also have a very difficult time maintaining the integrity of such a "natural vessel". Finally, compression pumps are some of the least efficient devices going.

PJ's balloon thing sounds a little more viable, though.
 
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I hadn't heard of that one, though I had thought of it myself when thinking about solar panels for a house. I wondered how efficient it was (not an engineer so a bit out of my expertise!).

Not that efficient -- about the same as batteries, I understand. But it doesn't have to be -- we're using electricity that would otherwise go completely to waste. It's a cheap solution that scales up well, so any power stored this way is essentially a free bonus.

I've also heard of a 'solar pond' I think they call it, where you dig a pond, and put varying layers of heavily salinated water, with the lowers being practically salt slush. You pump heat from the solar panels or whatever into the lowest layers and somehow the varying levels of salinity trap the heat. You then have pipes through it, which you pump water at night, which turns to steam and turns a turbine. Again not sure about the efficiency of it, and if it were to leak into a ground water area, it could contaminate drinking water, but still an interesting idea.

Yup, probably something you wouldn't want to do on top of an aquifer. Would work great at the seashore, though.
 
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The amount of air you'd have to pump into a "tank" of that size to create sufficient pressure differential to do anything would be prohibitive. I think you'd also have a very difficult time maintaining the integrity of such a "natural vessel". Finally, compression pumps are some of the least efficient devices going.

I didn't invent this idea. It's being seriously considered and tested by serious engineers of the energy persuasion right now. Those natural vessels are pretty damn airtight -- how would natural gas have managed to stay in them for million years otherwise?

Naturally you would have to pump in a fair bit of air to "prime" the store with a sufficient pressure differential -- but after that, what goes in is essentially the same as comes out. And, as I pointed out above, from there on out it's all free -- the power would get wasted otherwise.

Edit: reference -- this is for wind power, and uses an aquifer instead of a depleted gas field, but obviously the same solution would work for solar power.

[*http://www.wapa.gov/es/pubs/esb/2003/03Aug/esb084.htm ]
 
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Still, don't you think it's kinda strange that these "enviro-fascists" are brutally effective at preventing you from constructing nuclear power, but completely unable to stop you from constructing nuclear missiles?

Or, in other words, I don't buy that explanation. If they're in a position to make a difference, they'll do both. Now they're just used as a convenient scapegoat.

In order for them to make a difference, they have to garner support outside of their group. For going against nuclear plants, it's not that tough. Just spread propoganda like pictures of Chernobyl with "Do you want this happening in your backyard" or about the waste disposal, and the average American will say no way, not in my backyard!

With Nuclear weapons, it's not as easy to stir up support against them because the average American will never even see one. They're all locked away in some bunker as far as they know. And since the enemy has them, we'd better have them too!

It's all about how directly they affect the person putting pressure on the politicians.

It's like the global warming debate vs. the fossil fuel debate. Real or not, the average person doesn't see that much direct effect, and hence is less likely to alter their habits. However, when the price of oil goes through the rough and gasoline and home heating bills go through the roof, everyone is changing their habits.

Not saying that industries like the coal industry don't have influence on whether new nukes are built (hell they've been busted numerous times with spreading propaganda against nukes), but if there is enough public support for something, all the lobbying in the world isn't going to be able to change it.
 
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T I think you'd also have a very difficult time maintaining the integrity of such a "natural vessel".

Not really. They're talking about re0using fields that held compressed natural gas for millions of years without a problem.
 
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Don't pick one on a fault line. ;)

Seriously, You can change the shape of a natural container without springing a leak. If you "break thru" to a new cavern, the gas is still contained, but you just lost a proportional amount of pressure that you worked so hard to build due to the increased volume. Integrity covers more than just leaks. I guess people smarter than me think it will work, but it runs counter to what I've been taught and experienced with pressure vessels.
 
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Don't you think that sort of thing would've already happened back when it was a gas field, what with tremors and all, if it was to happen at all?
 
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I don't see that as a finite process. It's not like the dynamic geology of the past has suddenly stopped. But, to be fair, I'm not a geologist and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
 
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Here is another question to ask and i am directing it to the US citizens that read this thread.
Would the USA be willing to relinquish it's status as the most powerful nation on the planet, because it most certainly will not be able to sustain it's present level of millitary might without oil.
If the US would not be willing to do this it means that it cannot take the lead in implementing these alternatives and in fact would necessarily be the last nation on earth to do so.
American society is built on fear. Americans have always been afraid of something. Something that they believe will try to end their way of life. For many decades it was communism and now it is Islam. This fear is what fuels all the modern wars you have been involved in
While this fear remains is the United States going to start going green while other nations continue to power their armed forces with oil and leave itself "Vulnerable" to it's "enemies" ?
Is your present system of government even going to be available to the kind of scrutiny that will allow the people to even ask such questions of it ?
 
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Would the USA be willing to relinquish it's status as the most powerful nation on the planet, because it most certainly will not be able to sustain it's present level of millitary might without oil.

No we will not be willing to relinquish out status, but I don't think we'd have to without oil. If anything, a large portion of innovations start with the military, so any movement to another power source may come from them. If nothing else, the possibility of losing our status may be what spurns them to head the research. Maintaining our military dominance is paramount.

If the US would not be willing to do this it means that it cannot take the lead in implementing these alternatives and in fact would necessarily be the last nation on earth to do so.

Completely disagree based on what I posted above.

American society is built on fear. Americans have always been afraid of something. Something that they believe will try to end their way of life.
That is a vast over-simplification. By your statement, all societies are based on fear because all societies fear the end of their way of life.

For many decades it was communism and now it is Islam. This fear is what fuels all the modern wars you have been involved in

yes and no. Again, it's a fast over simplification and the US doesn't fear Islam, it fears Islamic states. There is a difference.

While this fear remains is the United States going to start going green while other nations continue to power their armed forces with oil and leave itself "Vulnerable" to it's "enemies" ?

If anything, our armed forces are MORE vulnerable because of our dependence on foreign oil. The Japanesse learned this lesson in WWII, and it has not been forgotten by us. When we cut off their oil supply, they attacked. That reality alone is enough to push the armed forces to look for alternative, independent power sources. Look at our navy. It's mostly powered by nukes (the big ships and subs anyway) even though one of the biggest reserves of coal in the world. And having that type of independence means that our navy will dominate the seas, and hence international commerce (or more pointedly makes sure that no one else uses a navy to dominate international commerce), for the foreseeable future. The navy made this change because 1) it was more efficient) and two it made the large fleets much more independent of port calls, particularly the subs.

Is your present system of government even going to be available to the kind of scrutiny that will allow the people to even ask such questions of it ?

Well, I think you questions are invalid obviously, but yes, our government is able to scrutinize itself when it really matters. The most powerful thing about the American economy has always been its adaptive ability. Whether we are talking about off-shoring jobs or commodities constraints, we have always adapted quickly, partly because the government is fairly hands off. It's the beauty of capitalism.

EDIT: One more thought. We have a good amount of untapped oil reserves (ANWR, and most of the shoreline), plus the shale oil, plus crude oil reserves (not sure how big, but pretty big). If we got to a point where oil imports were low enough to be causing actual national security concern, the government would open those in a heartbeat to the military. The military uses a lot of oil, but it's not a significant amount of our overall consumption. Those reserves would keep our military fully functional for a long time.

In short, the US military dominance isn't going to end during any of our lifetimes from a lack of oil. Maybe something else, but not oil.
 
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I would have to agree with bn's response, Dodd.
 
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I also agree, to the extent that however bulky and overweight our social structure has become, one of its defining characteristics is adaptability. My presence in the Optimist camp is based on our pragmatism, not our secular idealism or high flown visions of a Utopian future, not that those visions are not a powerful wind in the sails of those who are motivated to change, but the bigger motivation is based on reality.

While I think there's little doubt the role of the US in global affairs will change and adapt over time, I have to hope and believe that we will respond to our fears constructively, and that they will be realistic fears--of tanking as an economy, or our kids not living in a better world, and of not retaining a decent society and lifestyle.
 
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In short, the US military dominance isn't going to end during any of our lifetimes from a lack of oil. Maybe something else, but not oil.

The likely scenarios for this are a collapse of the American economy (either in absolute terms, or relative to its rivals), or the realization that conventional military supremacy is largely irrelevant in today's world. Your military spending is about equal to the rest of the world put together, and it's not really doing you much good. Once this actually dawns on you, you might choose to scale down your military power to what's actually needed to defend the country. Which will be roughly one-tenth of what you spend now.
 
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The likely scenarios for this are a collapse of the American economy (either in absolute terms, or relative to its rivals), or the realization that conventional military supremacy is largely irrelevant in today's world. Your military spending is about equal to the rest of the world put together, and it's not really doing you much good. Once this actually dawns on you, you might choose to scale down your military power to what's actually needed to defend the country. Which will be roughly one-tenth of what you spend now.

That's true to some extent. I would argue that since we are the world's only super power, we will always need to have offensive as well as defensive power. Plus, dominating the seas is important to making sure global trade can continue. I don't think the number is 1/10th, but there is a lot of waste.
 
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